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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ How to handle Putin’s escalation ladder |
2️⃣ Why Indonesia’s president wants fewer apps |
3️⃣ Book of the day |
Hi Intriguer. As I’ve gotten older, busier, and dad-ier, my criteria for friendship just gets looser. Someone described my current status like this: a true friend is now anyone who knows the name of your first child, the gender of your second, and the existence of a third.
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Forgive this epic segue as we dive into today’s briefing, which leads with the shifting red-lines now being imposed by Ukraine’s friends and foes alike.
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PS – Mexico has huge elections this Sunday! We’ve got a cracking special edition in store, and we’ll send it out on election day to anyone who’s shared Intrigue with two or more friends (using your unique referral code below).
THE HEADLINES
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US Gaza pier under repair as Israel pushes into Rafah.
Heavy seas have damaged the US aid pier off Gaza, with repairs expected to take at least a week. Meanwhile, there are reports of Israeli tanks operating near the Rafah city centre for the first time. The White House has reiterated its support for Israel, saying Israel’s actions in Rafah don’t constitute a “major ground operation” and so haven’t crossed President Biden’s red line.
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IMF bumps up China’s growth forecast.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) now forecasts China’s economy to grow by 5% this year, up from an earlier estimate of 4.6%. The revised figures reflect China’s “good start” to the year, though IMF officials warn that China’s industrial policy risks a “misallocation” of resources that could harm international trade.
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Georgia adopts foreign agents bill.
The Georgian parliament has overridden a presidential veto and adopted the controversial ‘foreign agents’ bill, despite widespread protests and criticism from the West. The bill, which will force certain foreign-funded organisations to submit to extra scrutiny, is set to become law in 60 days.
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Spy chief selected as next Dutch PM.
The country’s new four-party coalition has announced former Dutch intelligence chief Dick Schoof as its pick to lead the next government, following months of post-election negotiations. The lower house of parliament has given the coalition until late June to finalise its cabinet, before the Dutch king confirms the new government.
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Voting kicks off in South Africa.
Millions of South Africans are heading to the polls today (Wednesday) in what’s shaping up to be the most competitive election in three decades. The long-dominant African National Congress (ANC) party, which has presided over worsening economic and energy crises in South Africa, could end up losing its majority in parliament.
You call that a balloon?
North Korea has sent trash balloons south over the border, after pledging to retaliate against propaganda leaflets dropped by South Korean activists.
TOP STORY
Should Ukraine hit back at targets in Russia with Western-supplied weapons?
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European defence ministers met in Brussels yesterday (Tuesday). And while the 27-member bloc agreed on their “unwavering” support for Ukraine’s defence against Russia’s invasion, they’re wavering on what exactly “unwavering” means.
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What’s the debate?
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The most pressing question involves Western requirements that Kyiv not use Western arms to hit back at targets in Russia. The idea has long been to avoid ‘escalating’ things any closer to direct conflict between Russia and the West.
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But Putin has just responded to these Western red lines by staging more attacks from the Russian side of the border. And that makes it difficult for Ukraine to defend a major city like Kharkiv, which is only 30km from the boundary line.
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While Ukraine has periodically hit back at Russian soil with homemade weapons, it says it hasn’t done so with Western weapons for fear of losing Western support.
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So as Putin keeps attacking, President Zelenskyy is now re-upping his request for the West to relax those rules. And he has support, too:
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The UK, Finland, Sweden, Poland and others have already given the green light
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The Dutch defence minister says it shouldn’t even be a “subject of debate”
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NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg agrees, saying it’s like asking Ukraine to fight with one hand tied behind its back, and
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French President Macron reached a similar view yesterday during his visit to Germany, though he said (🇫🇷) Ukraine should only “neutralise” specific military sites from where Russian missiles are launched.
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But others have continued to hold the line. And crucially, they include the two largest providers of security aid to Ukraine: the US and Germany.
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Germany’s leader Olaf Scholz may have relaxed his stance yesterday, saying (🇩🇪) he agrees with Macron. However, Scholz still a) insisted Ukraine must respect any donor conditions, b) didn’t clarify his own conditions, and c) hasn’t actually provided weapons (like the Taurus) capable of reaching Russian soil.
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So that leaves the US, which is still holding firm: the State Department just reiterated on Friday that it doesn’t “encourage or enable” strikes in Russia, though said it’s up to Kyiv how it uses non-US weapons. And there are reports that Secretary of State Blinken is now lobbying internally to relax the US rules.
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But while this all plays out, Putin keeps dropping periodic reminders about his nuclear arsenal, and on Tuesday warned NATO’s “small European countries” to “keep in mind” that they are “small and densely populated”. Putin also, however, recently said he doesn’t believe Russia and the US are set for a nuclear conflict.
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Regardless, the three NATO nuclear powers (the US, UK, and France) have now repeatedly warned Putin of “severe consequences” if he goes nuclear.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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When presented with this kind of escalation ladder, it’s worth reflecting on who’s using it, why, where it leads, and what options there are in response.
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So, who’s escalating? While Putin cites grievances around Russia’s post-Cold War treatment, it was Russian tanks that rolled over Ukraine’s borders, and it’s now Russian rhetoric that keeps going nuclear.
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Why? This will be the stuff of endless PhDs, but in our view it’s to a) signal strength given Russia’s woes, b) signal determination in the face of Western dithering, and c) peel away the ‘peace at any cost’ members of the West.
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And where does this lead? Putin’s aim is to divide and deflate the West, and drag it to the negotiating table with a view to banking his territorial gains. But his immediate NATO neighbours – with their own experiences of Russian invasion – doubt Putin will stop there, so they’re wary of appearing vulnerable to these tactics.
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So what are your options? Faced with this kind of escalation ladder, you either climb up or down, right? Or maybe, you focus less on someone else’s ladder, and more on making decisions that shape events in your favour.
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And right now, few Western leaders will want to see an emboldened, conquering Putin, cheered on by his friends in Beijing, Pyongyang, and Tehran.
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Also worth noting:
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Zelenskyy has urged US President Biden and China’s Xi Jinping to attend next month’s peace summit in Switzerland. His aim is to unite global opinion around Ukraine’s peace plan, which includes Russia returning to its borders. Switzerland has said it’s open to inviting Russia to join at a future stage, but Russia has said it has no interest.
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Zelenskyy just wrapped a tour through Spain, Portugal, and Belgium. He signed security deals at each stop, including for Belgium to provide 30 F-16 fighter jets.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Police have arrested six people under the city’s new national security law, citing “seditious” social media posts. The detainees include a long-time organiser of Hong Kong’s huge annual Tiananmen massacre vigils, which would ordinarily happen next week but are now effectively banned.
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🇬🇷 Greece: The country’s data protection watchdog has slapped a $435k fine on Greece’s own interior ministry for failing to safeguard the data of thousands of voters abroad. The scandal emerged when a candidate sent an unauthorised mass email to all registered voters living overseas.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: President Joko Widodo has asked government officials to stop launching new apps, claiming it’s time to streamline bureaucracy. Between central and regional governments, Indonesian policymakers have somehow now developed some 27,000 apps.
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🇨🇺 Cuba: The US is easing some financial restrictions on entrepreneurs and businesses in Cuba as the island endures one of its worst economic and energy crises in its history. The US says Cuban officials and sanctioned Communist Party members won’t benefit from the changes.
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🇨🇩 Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC): A Polish man is now back in Europe after DRC authorities sentenced him to life in prison on espionage charges just last week. Before releasing him, the DRC had accused Mariusz Majewski of collaborating with an armed militia and taking pictures of military sites.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what folks around the world have been googling
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🇬🇧 Brits were searching for ‘NatWest’ after the state-owned bank suffered an outage on its online banking and mobile app services.
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🇲🇾 Malaysian football fans looked up ‘Al-Nassr’ after the team’s star player Cristiano Ronaldo broke the record for most goals scored in a Saudi Pro League season (he’s now at 35 goals).
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And 🇨🇴 Colombians googled ‘Racionamiento de agua 28 de mayo 2024’ (water rations 28 May 2024) as the latest rationing cycle took hold in drought-stricken Bogota.
BOOK OF THE DAY
Courtesy of hongfz.com
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The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) takes its history seriously, if a tad selectively. So we were interested to see the CCP just publish a 4-volume, million-character anthology detailing the life of Xi Zhongxun, President Xi Jinping’s late father.
The press release (🇨🇳) says the book “comprehensively records the life, achievements and thoughts of Comrade Xi Zhongxun”. And we’re genuinely curious how it covers the many years of CCP purging and persecution he endured, before his eventual ‘rehabilitation’ and appointment to serve as governor of Guangdong (China’s most-populous province).
DAILY POLL
Do you think Ukraine should be able to hit back at launch sites in Russia? |
Yesterday’s poll: How would you assess the state of the Western-led world order?
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 It’s doing just fine (10%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🩹 It’s starting to show some cracks (57%)
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🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚨 It’s on its way out (25%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚰️ It faded long ago (6%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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🩹 E.K.H: “Cracks can be fixed, if you act quickly before they spread.”
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👍 D.R: “New challenges provide new opportunities and the capability to adapt still seems solid.”
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🚨 B.P: “International law is regularly ignored without consequences.”
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✍️ M.R: “Western leadership, in general, will grow stronger in the next decade as technological bias towards Western values permeates the AI tooling of the future.”
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🩹 P: “A complete state of disarray would be the most accurate description of the current situation. It seems that ‘everyone for themselves’ is the order of the day.”
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✍️ E: “It was always sh¡tty for people on the outside!”