Plus: Booze shipment of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Six questions from France’s shock vote |
2️⃣ Easy cash in Kosovo |
3️⃣ Booze shipment of the day |
Hi Intriguer. In between postings abroad, I snuck in a year at film school, where a 500-page brick on the history of humankind ('Sapiens' by Yuval Noah Harari) drove home just how often we humans use stories to shape our world.
I mention that because two big examples broke over the weekend: the first came out of Iran, with the news that folks elected a ‘reformist’ candidate as the country’s next president. But with Iran’s supreme leader still firmly in control, many would argue Iran’s whole ‘reformist vs hardliner’ choice was little more than a story the regime told to drive turnout and legitimise its power.
The other story came out of France, which produced yet another electoral upset in parliamentary elections yesterday (Sunday). Different voices are now telling different stories about who really won, who really lost, and why. So today’s briefing sifts through it all to get you what you need.
Scores dead in Russian strikes on Ukrainian cities.
Authorities believe at least 20 have been killed in a series of Russian strikes against Ukrainian cities. Kyiv’s mayor said the attack damaged the city’s children's hospital, which is now being evacuated.
‘Reformist’ candidate wins Iranian election.
Masoud Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon, will become Iran’s next president after beating his hardline opponent. He’s vowed to oppose patrols by the so-called morality police and build a more constructive relationship with the West. But the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, still remains in control.
Pro-deal protests continue in Israel.
Marking nine months since the Hamas attacks, thousands of protesters took to the streets on Sunday, calling for the government to a) enter a deal with Hamas to return all hostages, and b) organise fresh elections. Meanwhile, the Israeli military has led foreign journalists into Rafah for the first time, to highlight Hamas infrastructure. A CBS crew described the city as “a wasteland”.
Hungarian PM meets Xi Jinping.
Viktor Orbán, Putin’s most sympathetic voice in the EU, met China’s leader Xi Jinping earlier today (Monday) to discuss the Russo-Ukraine war. Orbán also met Putin and Ukraine’s president (Zelensky) last week, describing the two as “still far apart” (we probably could’ve told him that). Meanwhile, a new report from The Economist has estimated Russia’s total losses at between 462,000 and 728,000 soldiers, eclipsing all its war-time casualties since WWII, combined.
Philippines and Japan sign defence pact.
The ‘reciprocal access agreement’, signed earlier today, allows the two to deploy their respective troops to the other’s territory for joint exercises. It carries significance that’s both symbolic (Japan occupied the Philippines during WWII), and practical (they’re seeking to balance China’s more confrontational approach).
Hollywood giants agree to $28B merger.
Media company Paramount Global, responsible for hits like The Godfather and Breakfast at Tiffany’s, has agreed to merge with independent studio Skydance Media. Paramount’s shares have fallen 75% in the last five years.
TOP STORY
Six questions from France’s dramatic parliamentary elections
Citizens gathered at the Place de la Republique as initial results emerged yesterday (Sunday). Credits: Reuters/Abdul Saboor
France's parliamentary elections produced some big surprises and bigger headlines yesterday (Sunday). Here's what you need to know.
You might recall President Macron's centrist party got nailed in the EU elections last month. So he surprised everyone by rolling the fluffy dice with these snap elections back home. His aim was to:
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a) fend off claims that he'd lost his legitimacy, and
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b) call voters' bluff: ie, he was betting folks wouldn't hand parliament to the nationalist-populist National Rally (RN).
So did his gambit work? That depends on who – and what – you ask. The count is still being finalised, but here are six big questions (and a few answers, too):
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Who won the most seats?
France's leftist coalition won the biggest share of seats (182), followed by Macron's centrists (168), and then the right-leaning RN (143), who were actually projected to come first (hence the big upset and big headlines).
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Who won the most votes?
The right-leaning RN still won a) more votes than anyone else; b) more parliamentary votes than it’s ever won before (it only got seven seats in 2017); and c) it even won a bigger share than it did at last month’s EU elections.
But contrary to initial polling, the RN still fell way short of a majority. So the party’s long-time figurehead Marine Le Pen is calling that a "delayed victory".
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Who lost?
That’d be Macron's centrist party, which lost a third of its seats (~80 out of 240). So France's centre really crumbled, amid frustrations against yet another incumbent over inflation, wages, migration, and beyond.
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Okay Intrigue, just tell us who won!
Settle down.
No bloc has come close to a majority (289 seats). But some are still claiming victory, mostly because the RN fell short (after centrists and leftists united): many view the EU-and-migration-sceptic RN as "far right", notwithstanding Le Pen’s ongoing attempt at rebranding, plus the party’s vow to raise the minimum wage.
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So what does all this mean?
When Macron called this surprise election, he said the country needed "clarification". And sure, we got clarification in the sense that all kinds of parties managed to join forces and dash the right’s hopes. But we also got more confusion in the sense that it's pretty unclear what happens now.
The immediate result is a hung parliament. And not only do the three main blocs revile one another, they also – in a deliciously French twist – revile themselves:
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The left coalition is made up of bickering Socialists (centre-left), Communists, Greens, and a hard left 'France Unbowed' party.
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Macron's own centrists revile him now that it’s clear he effectively just gave away 80 seats along with their ability to get much done, and
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There are also rumours of finger-pointing within the RN.
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Then what’s next?
Macron is still president until 2027 and will still lead France's approach to the world. And he now has to pick another prime minister to drive more of the agenda back home, though it's unclear who could survive such a polarised parliament.
So all in all, it's like France swerved to avoid skidding off to the right, only to instead hurtle down a foggy, uncharted ravine to the left.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Now let's pin down some take-aways:
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This election has hit fast-forward on Macron's conversion to a lame-duck president (his term finishes in 2027)
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Domestic wrangling means he'll also have less headspace to focus abroad (and fewer world leaders will be listening anyway), and
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While the top-placed leftist coalition has reiterated support for Ukraine, vowed to recognise the state of Palestine, and condemned the "Hamas terrorist massacres", it’s also been silent on (for example) France’s future in NATO, reflecting divisions across France's left.
Meanwhile, France’s standing abroad will also be shaped by its fortunes back home. And the left’s platform (eg, a 90% top-end tax, and reversing Macron’s pension reform) is generating some debate: the IMF's former chief economist has described it as ignoring the ‘inequality v growth’ balance, saying it’ll "lead to an economic catastrophe".
And then of course, after such a heated campaign and such a divided result, it's hard to see any genuinely unifying or effective force emerging. And that might ultimately benefit the RN, which will watch on until its next shot in 2027.
Also worth noting:
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The constitution says Macron can’t dissolve parliament again for at least 12 months, so there’s no re-do for now. Macron’s own Gabriel Attal will stay on as caretaker PM during the Olympics and until a new PM is found (that could take a while).
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This weekend’s election saw France’s highest turnout (60%) for a parliamentary election since 1981. It stood at 38% in 2022.
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France’s former president (and Macron's former boss), François Hollande, won a seat with the left-leaning alliance. He’s now France’s second ever former president to return to the legislature.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇮🇳 India: Prime Minister Modi is due to meet President Putin in Moscow today (Monday) for a two-day annual India-Russia Summit that dates back to 2000. Modi will reportedly focus on India’s huge trade imbalance with Russia, as well as securing the discharge of Indian nationals duped into enlisting with Russian forces in Ukraine.
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🇸🇰 Slovakia: Prime Minister Fico, appearing for the first time in public since he was shot two months ago, has praised his Hungarian counterpart’s recent trip to Kyiv and Moscow. A retired security guard shot Fico four times in May, citing opposition to the ruling party’s plans to abolish an anti-corruption body and halt aid to Ukraine.
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🇰🇭 Cambodia: In a weekend visit, Japan’s Foreign Minister Yoko Kamikawa has announced a joint landmine initiative to help remove unexploded ordinances left from US bombardment in the 1970s and 80s. One of the world’s most heavily mined countries, Cambodia has removed 72,000 mines since 2018.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Argentine President Javier Milei has skipped Paraguay’s summit of Mercosur presidents (Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay) to instead speak at a conservative conference in Brazil. While there, he delivered a bear hug to Brazil’s indicted former president (Bolsonaro), in what’ll likely be seen as a snub against Argentina’s top trading partner.
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🇳🇪 Niger: Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have held a weekend summit and signed a confederation treaty aimed at developing closer alignment. The three Sahel neighbours are now each run by military juntas that seized power in coups from 2020 to 2023, before severing ties with Western powers.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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The German town of Gelsenkirchen has temporarily renamed itself ‘Swiftkirchen‘ to welcome US pop star Taylor Swift and her fans.
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Race authorities have fined a Tour de France cyclist 200 Swiss francs ($223) for hugging and kissing his wife while racing.
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A court has upheld the firing of a German police officer who stole nine 20kg packs of cheddar cheese from an overturned truck while attending a traffic incident.
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UK-based researchers have confirmed that hippos can get airborne for up to 0.3 seconds at a time, which is kinda impressive when you remember they can weigh 3,630kg (8,000lbs).
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The mayor of Kosovo’s capital, Pristina, is offering residents €50 ($54) a month if they adopt one of the thousands of stray dogs roaming the city.
BOOZE SHIPMENT OF THE DAY
Credits: @RoryCormac via Twitter/X.
We promise a well-curated list of beverages is key to any successful diplomatic function. But we also promise that our embassy fridges were never stocked quite so robustly as a 1960s-era British mission.
With thanks to Rory Cormac, the above is apparently the inventory of booze that a British ambassador brought on posting in 1966. By our count, that’s… 150 bottles of whiskey alone? Did anyone ever see this ambassador again?
DAILY POLL
Which of the following do you think is the key for a successful government? |
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✏️ Corrections corner
Thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out (from Friday’s intro) that McCain’s gracious concession speech was obvs from 2008, not 2012.