Plus: The end of the Troubles
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Six key signals from PM Kishida’s US visit |
2️⃣ On this day in 1998 |
3️⃣ A power struggle in Puntland |
Hi Intriguer. During Paul Cambon’s 22-year posting as France’s ambassador to the UK a century ago, he famously refused to learn a single word of English, even insisting that ‘yes’ be translated to ‘oui’ lest his ears be tainted.
He comes to mind today as we dive into this week’s US visit by Japan’s prime minister, Fumio Kishida. Why? Because ahead of tonight’s dinner at the White House, reporters are saying that all bar one of President Biden’s five state dinners have been for Indo-Pacific partners. The one exception? France.
But no doubt Ambassadeur Cambon would tell you (in French) that France is indeed an Indo-Pacific power, with a million citizens, thousands of troops, and several bases across the region. Anyway, thanks for listening to my TED talk.
PS – Do you live in DC? Join us and spy-turned-author ‘Jack Beaumont’ for a chat and drink on April 24!
Biden says Netanyahu is making a “mistake”.
US President Joe Biden has told a US Spanish-language TV network that he believes Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach in Gaza has been a “mistake”. He added: “What I'm calling for is for the Israelis to just call for a ceasefire, allow for the next six, eight weeks, total access to all food and medicine going into the country.”
China’s outlook goes negative.
Financial ratings agency Fitch has downgraded its long-term outlook on China’s sovereign credit from ‘stable’ to ‘negative’. It believes China is facing “uncertain economic prospects” and that “fiscal policy is increasingly likely to play an important role in supporting growth”. Fitch still reaffirmed its A+ credit rating for China.
European Court of Human Rights (ECHR) weighs in on climate change.
The ECHR has ruled that the Swiss government’s inaction to address climate change violates fundamental human rights. The suit, brought by a group of 2,000 senior Swiss women, argued in part that climate change-fuelled heat waves undermined their health and increased their risk of dying. The court threw out two similar cases brought against France and 32 European countries.
US approves small air-defence package for Ukraine.
The State Department has approved an emergency $138M sale of air-defence equipment for Ukraine, to help Kyiv maintain and repair its Hawk missile systems. A much bigger $60B aid package remains blocked in Congress.
South Koreans head to the polls.
Voting in South Korea’s parliamentary election is now underway, in what’s widely seen as a mid-term test for President Yoon Suk Yeol. His approval ratings have taken a hit from issues like inflation and an ongoing strike by doctors.
TOP STORY
Six quick signals from Kishida’s visit to the US
President Biden and PM Kishida snapped this cheeky selfie en route to last night’s seafood dinner at BlackSalt on McArthur Blvd
Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has kicked off his US visit, hitching a ride with President Biden in 'The Beast' to crush some crab cakes over at BlackSalt last night, before continuing the week's formal program today (Wednesday).
It's all happening amidst what Kishida describes as a “historic turning point” for the world. And rather than give media outlets indigestion by revealing all the visit details at once, officials have been drip-feeding them in advance.
So we have a good sense of what the leaders will announce this week, and what signals they're trying to send. Here are the six quick signals you should know:
1) ‘Alliances are worth it’
Japan has seen signs of US fatigue towards the world, so the visit is a chance (with the White House) to prove the value of alliances to sceptical US lawmakers and voters alike. To that end, Kishida will start by highlighting what he's already doing, like doubling defence spending. His message? We're not freeloaders.
2) ‘Alliances transcend elections’
Meanwhile, Biden faces an election in November, while Kishida has a party ballot in September. They're both lagging in the polls, so their agenda's sheer size (as much as its content) aims to highlight the alliance's breadth and durability, regardless of who's in office.
3) ‘Democracies can still deliver’
Looking ahead, a big part of our world’s “historic turning point” hinges on rivals now offering very different visions for the world. So in defence of democracy’s ability to get big stuff done, Kishida and Biden will likely announce some suitably big projects, like Japan's participation in NASA's Artemis moon program.
4) ‘We're reliable partners’
Looking abroad to friends and fence-sitters alike, Biden and Kishida will also announce a new Japan-based disaster relief hub, with more aid pre-positioned for the region’s next natural disasters. This leans into their strengths around emergency relief, which really helps shape perceptions on the ground.
5) ‘We can still walk and chew gum’
But the last couple of years have raised questions around US stamina, so these kinds of major visits are also a low-cost way to signal that the US can still defend its interests in the Pacific while responding to crises elsewhere. That’s partly why all five (✋) of Biden’s state dinners to date have feted Indo-Pacific leaders.
6) ‘So… don't mess with us’
But of course, the week’s most head-turning details will focus on defence plans, like a new satellite constellation to track hypersonic weapons (held by China, Russia, and North Korea); paving the way for Japan to repair US ships (rather than schlep them back across the Pacific); and boosting co-production of arms.
This kind of defence integration is tough and time-consuming, but the signal is clear: in response to China’s build-up in a more complex world, US allies are pooling their strength.
And the idea here, as with the whole visit, is to make China and other rivals think very carefully about their next moves.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It’s also interesting to reflect on what likely won’t be mentioned this week: Washington’s avoidance of the mega trade deal it helped negotiate (tongue-twistingly known as the CPTPP); and Washington’s opposition to the proposed buyout of US Steel by Japan’s Nippon Steel.
These are both real irritants for Japan, but Japanese diplomats will have made clear to Tokyo there’s no point pushing them in an election year. Still, that’s not to say Japan is therefore sitting on its hands. Kishida’s visit to North Carolina will seek to nudge the debate by highlighting Japan’s role as America’s top investor, backing US job creation and tech leadership.
The other question is whether Kishida uses tomorrow’s address before Congress (Japan’s second-ever) to urge continued US support for Ukraine. He’s previously warned that “today’s Ukraine could be tomorrow’s East Asia”, but he’ll also be mindful that today’s Biden could be tomorrow’s Trump.
Also worth noting:
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The US-Japan-Philippines summit tomorrow will likely call out China's actions in the South and East China Seas, and announce joint patrols in areas claimed by China (contrary to a court ruling).
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There was an expectation Japan could be formally added to parts of the Australia-UK-US ‘AUKUS’ defence pact, though an AUKUS statement on Monday seems to have kicked this particular can down the road.
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There’s also been reporting that Washington could (at Tokyo’s request) devolve more authority to the US military command in Japan, though it seems the details are still being ironed out.
A MESSAGE FROM SEMAFOR
The 2024 World Economy Summit, hosted by the folks at Semafor, will showcase the most influential economic and business decision-makers in the world, coming together for on-the-record conversations on the state of the global economic landscape. Featured speakers include Lael Brainard, Director of the White House National Economic Council; Valdis Dombrovskis, EVP and Commissioner for Trade, European Commission; Acting U.S. Secretary of Labor Julie Sue, and many more (full list of speakers linked here). If you are in or around D.C., this is an event you won't want to miss.
PS – members of the Intrigue team will be there for a few of the panel discussions. If you see us, say hi!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: President Xi Jinping met Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday (Tuesday), and noted their shared drive to reform “global governance”, aka the US-led order. Lavrov’s visit is widely believed to be laying the groundwork for an upcoming visit by President Putin.
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🇬🇧 UK: Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, and the UK have jointly pledged to help protect underwater infrastructure in the North Sea. The announcement follows several mysterious incidents that’ve hit nearby undersea cables and pipelines in recent years.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim has asked social media giants Meta and TikTok to present concrete plans to address content deemed offensive to the so-called 3Rs: race, religion, and royalty. Critics say the move is a step towards censorship.
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🇭🇹 Haiti: Local police have been able to recover a hijacked cargo ship after a gunfight with armed gangs. The gangs were reportedly able to steal 10,000 of the 60,000 rice sacks the ship was carrying.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: Semi-autonomous Puntland, Somalia’s wealthiest and most stable state, has refused to recognise constitutional amendments that centralise more power in Somalia’s president. With fears of violence growing, a Puntland minister said “we are not declaring independence, but Puntland will stand alone until it is consulted.”
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on Europe’s defence sector
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Europe’s arms production is in “deep sh!t”, says Belgian ex-general
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European defence groups warn over reliance on Chinese cotton used in gunpowder ($)
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NATO’s next challenge: How to reverse years of underfunding defense
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Europe needs more funds for defence as wider war ‘no longer a fantasy’, Borrell warns
TODAY IN HISTORY
The signed Belfast Agreement. Credits: Good Friday Agreement 25.
On this day in 1998, Britain, Ireland and eight political groupings from Northern Ireland signed the Belfast Agreement (or Good Friday Agreement). In doing so, they effectively ended the ~30-year period of sectarian conflict known as ‘the Troubles’. The agreement also restored self-government to Northern Ireland and set up the power-sharing arrangement that still survives today.
DAILY POLL
Do you think the US can still walk and chew gum at the same time? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think artificially cheap goods like EVs and solar panels are positive on balance?
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🌱 Yep, the quicker (and cheaper) we finish this energy transition, the better (35%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛔ Nope, the transition will take longer and cost more in the end without competition (24%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚖️ The environmental benefits will come with real economic (and geopolitical) costs (37%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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⚖️ M.C.M: “(Geo)Politics finds its way in even the most seemingly innocuous of areas. Would it be better to just buy the cheapest stuff so global warming won't cook us as badly? Of course. Would it be wise to become dependent on a country who may or may not use that dependence to coerce you? Hell no.”
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🌱 D: “Here in Africa we can often make ‘Cheap and Cheerful’ mass-produced products out of China work better than some of the more sophisticated high-end products from elsewhere.”
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✍️ P.C.M: “In addition to economic and geopolitical cost, these clean energy alternatives come with their own EV costs, which may outweigh their supposed benefits.”
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