🌍 Six thoughts on Israel and Gaza

Hi there Intriguer. Let’s dive straight in.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🚨 Six dynamics we’re tracking on Israel-Gaza.

• 🇲🇳 Mongolia and France sign a uranium deal.

• ➕ Plus: From CEO to world leader, how the papers are covering Ecuador’s weekend election, and manhole covers go on sale in Japan.

1. 🇨🇳 China: A South Korean ministry warned Friday that hundreds of North Korean dissidents living in China had been forcibly repatriated back to North Korea. Seoul believes up to 10,000 North Koreans are currently hiding (from Pyongyang) in China.

2. 🇵🇱 Poland: Voters at the weekend’s ballot may have ejected Poland’s ruling conservative party, with centrist parties poised to form government. The high-stakes campaign drove a record 73% turnout, with final results expected tomorrow (Tuesday) or later.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Voters roundly rejected a weekend referendum to recognise First Nations peoples in the constitution and create an Indigenous advisory body. Eight out of a total of 45 referendums have passed in Australia’s constitutional history.

4. 🇩🇴 Dominican Republic: Haiti has refused the Dominican Republic’s offer to partially reopen their shared border, nearly a month after Santo Domingo closed it to protest the construction of a Haitian canal. One Haitian official has said Santo Domingo should first apologise before moving to reopen the border.

5. 🇩🇿 Algeria: The Algerian Supreme Court has upheld the 7-year sentence of a journalist for “inciting acts susceptible to threaten state security”. Critics say the journalist was arrested for supporting pro-democracy protests in 2019.

🇮🇱 Israel | Geopolitics

Six thoughts on Israel and Gaza

After issuing an evacuation order for 1.1 million Palestinians in north Gaza, Israel has reportedly delayed its ground invasion in part due to poor weather.

So here are six factors we're tracking:

1. 🇮🇱 Israel’s internal dynamics

Israel says its goal in Gaza will be “the rout of Hamas and the elimination of its leaders after the slaughter they perpetrated”.

But there’s little clarity on the contours of that goal, and less clarity still on Israel’s plans thereafter: few Israelis want another occupation, fewer still want any continued role for Hamas, and there’s little prospect of any external force emerging as a willing, able, or acceptable replacement.

So there’s talk of some kind of arrangement with the Palestinian factions running the West Bank. But they’d have little (if any) local legitimacy arriving in Gaza off the back of an Israeli invasion.

And this is all complicated by a fog of national anger and trauma; sentiment turning against Netanyahu; and the window of Western support inevitability narrowing as the humanitarian consequences in Gaza unfold.

2. 🇵🇸 Internal Palestinian political dynamics

Hamas would’ve anticipated Israeli retaliation, but it seemingly miscalculated the degree to which Iran and others were willing to then step in directly.

So it's hard to see Hamas leaders in Gaza surviving Israeli retaliation; likewise for its political leaders abroad (intriguingly, the Four Seasons has denied claims that Hamas leaders are at the luxury chain’s Doha hotel).

Meanwhile, the Palestinian Authority leader in the West Bank, Mahmoud Abbas, has increasingly emphasised a distinction between Hamas and the Palestinian people, foreshadowing more of a role for the Authority ahead.

3. 🇮🇷 Iran 

Iran’s other key proxy in the region (Hezbollah to Israel’s north) has so far limited its actions to within its long-standing but unofficial rules of engagement with Israel. And the group seemed to dial back its rhetoric yesterday (Sunday) after clashes with Israel along the Lebanon border.

So it’s possible that, notwithstanding rhetoric to the contrary, Iran doesn’t seem to be rushing to open up another front against Israel. And the sizeable new US military deployment off Israel would factor into Tehran’s thinking.

But the longer this all drags out and the worse the civilian toll in Gaza becomes, the higher the probability that Tehran’s calculation changes.

4. 🇪🇬 Egypt 

Egypt’s immediate priorities are its own regime stability and economic crisis, particularly ahead of December’s elections. And Cairo assesses that allowing large numbers of fleeing Palestinians out of Gaza and onto its restive Sinai territory would complicate both of these objectives.

But its military seems to be establishing a buffer 5km from Egypt’s Gaza border, so Cairo may be keeping its options open pending any concessions (such as debt relief) it can extract from the international community.

5. 🇷🇺 Russia

For Moscow, this is all a timely global distraction from its invasion of Ukraine, and a further stretching of the West’s bandwidth to respond. So it's seeking to sow tensions between Israel and Ukraine abroad, while mounting a massive (and so far very costly) offensive around Ukraine’s Avdiyivka.

For its part Ukraine, mindful of this dynamic, was quick to condemn the Hamas attacks, and there’s talk of President Zelensky visiting Israel soon.

6. 🇨🇳 China

China held pro-Palestinian positions as far back as the Mao era, and its initial “all parties” statement last week angered Israel. But for now, this approach probably reflects Beijing’s general preference to avoid directly taking sides if it can. And this in turn highlights that there are still real limits to its power.

Also worth noting:

• Media outlets continue to report on the humanitarian crisis unfolding in Gaza following Israel’s siege and evacuation order.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Ecuador’s run-off presidential elections over the weekend

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 🇲🇳 Mongolia | Mining & energy

Mongolia and France sign a uranium deal

Mongolia and France have reportedly signed a $1.7B deal paving the way for French uranium (and lithium) mining in the country.

Why uranium? 

France currently operates 56 nuclear power plants, which accounted for over 60% of the country’s electricity needs last year. And Paris is working to reduce its dependence on Russian nuclear fuel and other inputs.

And why Mongolia? Mongolia’s landlocked location between Russia and China leaves it keen to diversify its partners. And that same strategic location also makes it a priority partner for others:

• 🇨🇳 President Xi hosted his Mongolian counterpart in July, and

• 🇺🇸 The US hosted Mongolia’s prime minister in August.

Intrigue’s take: Resource partnerships with Mongolia aren’t as straightforward as they look. Russia has been attempting to develop the country’s uranium mining sector since the 1950s with little success.

Also worth noting:

• Mongolia holds about 2% of the world’s recoverable uranium.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s more curious news

• A cat jumping on a technician’s computer caused a 4-hour interruption for a medical centre in Kansas City.

• A New Zealander has broken the world record for most bungee jumps in one day by completing a nausea-inducing 941 dives.

• Kyoto authorities have announced that the city’s decorated manhole covers will now be put up for sale to collectors.

• The Comedy Wildlife Photo Awards feature a ballerina otter, a kangaroo playing the air guitar, and a fox seemingly puffing on a cigar.

• And a clown enthusiast has been roaming the streets of a Scottish town, spooking villagers while daring the police to catch them if they can.

🗳️ Poll time!

🧑 New world leader of the day

Like seemingly everyone else this weekend, New Zealanders went to the polls on Saturday, propelling single-term parliamentarian Christopher Luxon to the prime minister’s office. His centre-right party’s “back on track” campaign brought six years of Labour rule to an end.

Before entering politics, Luxon (53) was CEO of Air New Zealand and Canada country head for British multinational, Unilever.

Thursday’s poll: What are your thoughts on the way we've approached Israel-Gaza this week?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇱 Too pro-Israel (15%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇵🇸 Too pro-Palestinian (5%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📈 Too much (2%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤏 Too little (22%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤷 In good faith (54%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🤏 R.M: “I just feel that the conflict, US carriers to the Gulf and the possible knock on effects and responses from other nearby countries merits more coverage.”

• 🤷 J.N: “Commendably. In a sea of false dilemmas, it’s good to be in the Intrigue lifeboat of nuance.”

• ✍️ M.E: “I’m against the targeting and killing of civilians but why does the West only seem to report on the loss of Israeli lives without reference to the loss of Palestinian lives over the past decades?”

We’d like to thank you all for taking the time to vote and leave a comment 🙏 
– Team Intrigue