🌍 Solar investment trumps oil

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇯🇵 Japan: Tokyo has adopted new sanctions in response to a Russian plan to move tactical nukes to Belarus. The new sanctions will also aim to restrict exports that could be used to support Russia’s industrial base.

2. 🇧🇪 Belgium: A Belgian aid worker imprisoned in Iran for 455 days was released during a prisoner swap in Oman on Friday (26 May). In exchange, Belgium released an Iranian diplomat accused of plotting to bomb a meeting of Iranian exiles in France.

3. 🇻🇳 Vietnam: A noodle vendor who posted a parody video of a powerful government minister has been jailed for more than five years. The vendor’s trial and sentencing took one day.

4. 🇵🇪 Peru: Peru’s congress has declared Mexico’s president (‘AMLO’) ‘persona non grata’ after he described the current president of Peru as a “usurper”. In December, AMLO granted asylum to the family of Peru’s former president, who was impeached and arrested after attempting to unlawfully dissolve congress.

5. 🇸🇱 Sierra Leone: An iconic 400-year old cotton tree in the middle of Freetown, Sierra Leone’s capital, was felled by a storm last week. The 70-metre tree featured prominently on the country’s bank notes and was a first stop for many foreign dignitaries.

☀️ GLOBAL | ENERGY

Investment in solar to surpass oil this year

Briefly: Total investment in solar energy will surpass investment in oil production this year for the first time, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) annual World Energy Investment report. Dr Fatih Biro, head of the IEA, described the development as a “striking, dramatic shift”.

The report also forecasts investment in all clean energy and tech to hit $1.7T this year, nearly double the total investment earmarked for all fossil fuels.

However, this shift isn’t yet global: around 80% of clean energy investment is happening in China plus a handful of advanced economies.

So what’s driving this clean energy investment boom? The IEA says:

• 📈 Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has exacerbated energy security fears

• 📉 Tech advances have made clean energy more cost competitive, and

• 🏆 Governments are racing to secure a foothold in key clean energy technologies through initiatives like the US Inflation Reduction Act.

And what’s hampering clean energy investment elsewhere? The IEA says it’s due to:

• 💲 Higher interest rates

• 🤷 Unclear policies, and

• 🔌 Weak grid infrastructure.

Intrigue’s take: We’re often banging on here about how rapidly things are changing, and this latest IEA report offers plenty more evidence: e.g., for every dollar invested in fossil fuels, $1.70 is invested into clean energy. Just five years ago, this ratio was one-to-one.

And yet… the IEA says things still aren’t changing rapidly enough. In a remarkable line, the report says the oil and gas industry’s USD1.5T returned to shareholders since 2020 could’ve “fully covered the investment requirements in all clean fuels” globally until 2030.

So it seems the money and tech are there. The missing piece is just allocation.

Also worth noting:

• Energy-related carbon emissions grew by 0.9% last year to an all-time high of 36.8 billion tonnes.

• The IEA says coal investment this year is set to reach nearly six times the levels needed by 2030 for the world to be on track for net zero emissions.

Have you checked out Intrigue Outloud?

🇹🇷 TURKEY | GEOPOLITICS

Erdoğan wins his 11th election in a row

Briefly: Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has been re-elected president of Turkey after second-round voting in the country’s elections yesterday (Sunday). Erdoğan outran his opponent, Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, by a margin of 52.1% to 47.9%.

This outcome seemed more likely last week, when a nationalist candidate who won 5.2% in the first round endorsed Erdoğan instead of Kılıçdaroğlu.

In response, Kılıçdaroğlu took a hard-line stance on migrants, putting up posters across the country with the slogan “Syrians will go.” But it wasn’t enough to bring undecided right-leaning voters to his camp.

Intrigue’s take: Erdoğan has made plenty of enemies during his 20+ years in office, and almost all of them – from the left, right, and centre – teamed up this election to try and oust him.

But Erdoğan’s iron grip on Turkey’s media, government institutions, and the imagination of Turkey’s voters proved too much for even the most determined and united opposition to overcome.

So Erdoğan can now get back to his in-tray, which is piled high with challenges. And after 20 years in power, much of that in-tray is the result of his own out-tray.

Also worth noting:

• World leaders have tweeted their congrats to Erdoğan, including leaders in Brazil, the US, Germany, France, the EU, Sweden, and Hungary.

• Addressing supporters after his victory, Erdoğan said “I will be here until I’m in the grave.” Kılıçdaroğlu didn’t initially concede defeat, but said “my real sadness is about the difficulties awaiting the country.” 

• In a pre-election interview, Erdoğan said he’ll continue to block Sweden’s accession to NATO. There are reports Erdoğan may relent in exchange for the US approving Turkey’s purchase of F-16 fighter jets.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

As ever, here are some of the global headlines that gave us a chuckle this week:

• Someone returned a book to a California library nearly 100 years late. Luckily, the library did away with late fines in 2019.

• New Zealand’s sheep-to-people ratio dropped below 5-to-1 for the first time since its population records began in the 1850s.

• Folks in Ankara saw a sofa flying gracefully through the air during a storm. Nobody was hurt, and the sofa landed in someone’s backyard, still in terrific condition.

• A German surgeon apparently asked a cleaner to assist him during a toe amputation (the surgeon was sacked).

• The Austrian town that inspired Disney’s Frozen has erected a wooden fence to stop tourist selfies.

🗺️ MAP OF THE DAY

The world’s shortest commercial flight covers a distance of only 2.7km , connecting the two Scottish islands of Westray to Papa Westray. On a good day, the flight takes less than a minute.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Thursday’s poll: Should central banks always be independent from the government?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💼 Yes, independence is sacrosanct (72%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔎 No, certain situations require government involvement (25%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 🔎 M.A: “Independence can't be absolute. While it is bad for governments to use the central bank for political goals, there must also be measures to guarantee that it works towards the economic policy chosen by the electorate.”

• 💼 T.J.L: “Central Bank independence is as important as separation of church and state. ”