🌍 Something’s up in Indonesia…

IN TODAY’S EDITION

Hi Intriguer. One of my regrets growing up was that I didn’t learn any Bahasa Indonesia. Why? Because my dad’s first language was actually Balinese, a regional Indonesian dialect. He’d left the country when he was just five years old, so could barely speak much Balinese himself (let alone Bahasa)!

What I did learn growing up is that Indonesia is often overlooked in the great power competition game. It boasts the world’s largest archipelago, the third-largest democracy, and — most importantly for us Mee Goreng lovers — apparently the world’s largest packet of instant noodles.

While we sadly won’t feature Indomie in today’s top story, we will dive deeper into the country’s recent political and economic developments. Let’s go.

PS — Ever wondered what it’s like to be foreign minister of a NATO ally without a military? Don’t miss our candid chat with Iceland’s Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir! It’s online next Friday 28th at 9.30am ET (1.30pm GMT). Register here!

Musk denies getting war briefing on China.
Elon Musk has denied a New York Times report (backed up by The Wall Street Journal) that he was scheduled for a top secret Pentagon briefing today (Friday) on US planning around any possible war with China. The claims (also denied by Trump and his defence secretary) have turned heads due to Musk’s presumed conflicts (like defence contracts and China business interests) plus the lack of any apparent need to know.

Fire grinds UK’s Heathrow airport to a halt.
An electrical substation fire has closed the world’s fourth-busiest airport, disrupting global air travel while plunging thousands of homes into darkness. While officials haven’t flagged this in public yet, you can bet the UK is examining the possibility of sabotage.

Europe to impose more Russia sanctions, but no Ukraine package.
European leaders meeting in Brussels have agreed to pile further sanctions on Russia, but they’ve stopped short of greenlighting a new military aid package for Ukraine — some leaders reportedly baulked at the hefty ~$50B price-tag, while Hungary played its usual spoiler role to block a statement of support.

Sudan military recaptures presidential palace.
The Sudanese military has recaptured what remains of the presidential palace in Khartoum, two years after the rival Rapid Support Forces paramilitary seized it. The Sudanese military now seems to have momentum in the civil war that erupted in 2023.

Zimbabwe’s Kirsty Coventry elected IOC president.
The Olympic swimming champion will be the next president of the International Olympic Committee, widely seen as the world’s most powerful sporting role.

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TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

The immediate trigger for Tuesday’s 7% crash was probably the rumoured resignation of the finance minister (Indrawati). And the very fact everyone believed this rumour at all reveals plenty of information itself:

• First, recall that Prabowo initially re-appointed Indrawati to her role to help calm markets after winning the election — investors feared his spending plans.

• But second, this only soothes markets if you actually listen to Indrawati and let her hold — or at least be aware of — the purse strings, which brings us to…

• Third, the sheer plausibility of her rumoured resignation stems from the huge gap between her long-standing credibility and Prabowo’s unorthodox budget — there’s no way a market darling like Indrawati would’ve backed it all.

• And fourth, while she hastily called a press conference to deny the rumours and reiterate her pledges to maintain fiscal discipline and transparency, this whole saga suggests maybe those pledges are simply no longer hers to give.

Also worth noting:

• While Prabowo’s budget cuts and other measures have triggered protests, his approval ratings still entered the year above 80%.

• Indonesia’s tax revenues are down 30% this year due to lower commodity prices. Meanwhile, Prabowo’s spending plans include a vast new school meals program projected to cost an annual $29B.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇷🇺 Russia: Ukraine has hit Russia’s Engeles-2 air base with drones overnight, triggering a massive blast at the airfield from where Russia routinely bombs Ukrainian cities. Ukrainian and Russian delegations are due to hold separate peace talks with a US delegation in Riyadh this coming Monday.

2. 🇮🇳 India: Elon Musk’s ‘X’ social media platform is suing India, alleging Delhi’s use of a website to manage government content-blocking orders has ended up empowering “countless” officials to censor speech without oversight. The case is due for hearing next week.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Canberra has flagged plans for its biggest ever defence export, selling its world-leading over-the-horizon radar tech (‘JORN’) to Canada for US$4B. The US had reportedly been first in line to buy the tech, but that’s now in doubt amid an ongoing cost-cutting drive at the Pentagon.

4. 🇵🇪 Peru: A 30-day state of emergency is now underway in Peru’s capital, with soldiers in the streets to help police tackle a recent surge in crime. The government announced the measures amid public outrage over the killing of popular singer Paul Flores last weekend.

5. 🇨🇩 DR Congo: Defying yesterday’s ceasefire calls from the leaders of the Congo and Rwanda, M23 rebels have now captured a strategic crossroads town linking four provinces in the Congo’s east. The area (Walikale) is also home to the Congo’s largest tin deposits, plus several major gold mines.

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EXTRA INTRIGUE

Some recommendations for the weekend ahead:

• Read a delightfully written ode to the martini, whatever it is, by LA Times restaurant critic Bill Addison, because not everything has to be so serious (and then drink one, mixed to your liking, should you be so minded).

• Watch an episode of Dirt, a travel/food miniseries by outdoor brand Huckberry. Maybe start with Surf and Eat Like a Local in Minnesota which showcases both the stunning beauty of the state, but also the cuisine of the Hmong, a people from Southeast Asia who migrated to the state en masse after the wars in Laos in the 70s.

• Go to your local cinema and catch a screening of Steven Soderbergh’s sleek spy thriller, Black Bag. Expect incisive dialogue, suave visuals, and a mercifully short running time.

MEME OF THE DAY

Our meme above recently went viral, seemingly because diplomats everywhere found it a brutally accurate snapshot of what diplomat life is actually like. It involves lots of:

• Dining in the national interest (we’ve found ‘stakeholders’ and ‘interlocutors’ tend to offer the juiciest insights between bites of Wagyu and sips of Chablis)

• Attending random events (sorry Kazakhstan), not necessarily because they’re interesting, but because your fellow guests might be interesting, and

• Whiplash as you go from defending the national interest to arranging a puppet show, laminating a briefing pack, then begging for a promotion.

FRIDAY QUIZ

Folks in the northern hemisphere just experienced the Spring Equinox yesterday (Thursday).