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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ Spot the difference: the Trump-Putin call |
2๏ธโฃ Diplomats on the move |
3๏ธโฃ Truth of the day |
Hi Intriguer. They say knowledge is knowing that tomato is a fruit, while wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
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Itโs a distinction (about wisdom, not fruit) we try to breathe into our briefings, and itโs one you might notice in todayโs lead on the latest Trump-Putin phone call.
THE HEADLINES
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Police detain Erdoฤanโs main rival.
Authorities have arrested Ekrem ฤฐmamoฤlu, President Erdoฤanโs top rival and Istanbulโs popular mayor, days before he was set to be named a presidential candidate for 2028. Heโs among 100 others being investigated on suspicion of fraud, bribery, and other allegations, which he rejects as politically motivated. The lira plunged on the news.
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Germany moves to ease debt brake to boost defence.
Germanyโs lawmakers have approved a historic easing of the countryโs famous debt brake, freeing up $500B+ for spending on defence and infrastructure. Subject to an upper house vote on Friday, this upends decades of debt hesitancy, giving Berlin more fiscal space to spur Germanyโs economy and respond to Russiaโs war in Europe.
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DR Congo and Rwanda call for ceasefire.
The two leaders issued a joint statement following direct talks in Qatar and called for an โimmediate ceasefireโ in eastern DR Congo, where Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have been advancing. Itโs unclear how M23 might respond given its patchy approach to talks.
Trump releases unredacted JFK files.
The US National Archives just published ~80,000 pages, with initial reports suggesting no earth-shattering new revelation. The 1960s-era Warren Commission found Lee Harvey Oswald (a former marine turned communist activist) acted alone, and these latest releases seem to focus on his movements, plus the broader international reaction to JFKโs death.
TOGETHER WITH MODE MOBILE
Pulling an Uber in the $500 Billion Smartphone Industry
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Imagine turning down Uber at a valuation of $10 million only to watch them go public at over $80 billion.
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Thatโs exactly what happened to Mark Cubanโฆ a 823,900% return, gone.
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And by the time we hear about industry-changing disruptions like this, it’s usually too lateโฆ but right now thereโs a tech-startup making waves behind the scenes. Like Uber turned vehicles into income-generating assets, theyโre turning smartphones into the easiest passive income source imaginable.
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They were named the #1 fastest growing software company by Deloitte in 2023 and have already earned over +$325M for their customers.
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This tech startup is Mode Mobile, and unlike Uber you have a chance to invest in their company at just $0.26/share before they go public.
TOP STORY
Spot the difference: the Trump-Putin phone call
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Presidents Trump and Putin have just wrapped another 90-minute phone call, so dip that rusk in your coffee or cocoa and join us for a quick guide on what each side is now claiming, before wrapping with a high-stakes game of โspot the differenceโ:
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๐บ๐ธ Starting with Washington, Trump postedโฆ
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โWe agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructureโ, and
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โwe will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefireโ.
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Trumpโs press office then gave a longer read-out adding thatโฆ
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โthe movement to peaceโ will also begin with โtechnical negotiations on the implementation of a Black Sea maritime ceasefireโ, and
-
the broader โnegotiations will begin immediately in the Middle Eastโ.
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๐ท๐บ As for the read-out from Moscow? Putin highlighted thatโฆ
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โComplete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key conditionโ, and
-
Putin โresponded favourablyโ to the proposal โto mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days.โ
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Spot the difference?
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First, Trump suggests thereโs now an immediate ceasefire on both energy and infrastructure, while Putinโs read-out refers instead to โenergy infrastructureโ.
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Maybe itโs a high-stakes typo, or maybe itโs the difference between stopping hits on power plants, grids, and refineries only, versus also stopping hits on (say) water, telco, bridges, railroads, and even sports stadiums.
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Second, while Trumpโs read-out names a place (Middle East) and time (immediate) for talks, Putin merely flags his โintention to continue effortsโ. A bit flaky?
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Third, while Trump refers to both Putin and Zelensky wanting peace, Putin says heโs committed to settling this โbilaterallyโ via US-Russia taskforces, seemingly icing out Kyiv.
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And fourth, Putin also reiterates his condition that any ceasefire must also involve the US cutting off Ukraineโs access to security assistance and intelligence โ Trump has already test-run both cuts since taking office.
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As for Zelenskyโs response? Speaking from Finland, he noted, “we will support such a proposal, but we’re very interested in the details”.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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As intriguing as the above game of DC-Moscow โspot the differenceโ might be, the more meaningful version might be the game of Moscow-Kyiv โspot the differenceโ โ ie, between the US-backed ceasefire that Ukraine already accepted (immediate and unconditional) versus the conditions Putin is now demanding. For example:
-
He wants a halt to attacks on energy facilities because thatโs where Ukraine is hurting him most, hitting ~15 out of ~33 major Russian refineries and thus curbing his ability to finance his war and keep his economy afloat. The Ukrainians also just claimed a new 3,000km-range drone putting even more of Putinโs energy at risk. Thatโs all why Putin quietly listed energy output as a state secret last year, and also why heโs pushing for an energy ceasefire now.
-
Ditto, Putin is talking about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire because he had to quietly withdraw his entire Black Sea fleet from pounding Ukrainian cities last year after Ukraine (with no real navy) wiped out a third of it โ thatโs 26 vessels.
-
Oh, and when Putin insists on cuts to US military and intelligence assistance in Ukraineโs self-defence, heโs pushing for a repeat of what we saw last weekend, when Putin used Trumpโs brief intel blackout to surprise Zelenskyโs troops in Kursk, seizing back a chunk of Ukraineโs leverage in these talks.
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Soโฆ whatโs really happening here? Putin has rejected Ukraineโs US-backed agreement to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, and is instead insisting the US curb some of the few advantages Ukraine still has in defending itself.
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But of course, itโs all worded in a way that a) might seem reasonable to a war-weary audience in the West, b) still gives Trump something to claim as a win, and c) again reframes Ukraineโs self-defence (rather than Russiaโs invasion) as the obstacle to peace.
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So sure, maybe this is a step closer to peace. Or maybe, dear Intriguer, itโs just a reminder that everyone says they want peace. Even the invaders.
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Also worth noting:
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The Kremlinโs read-out also suggests Trump and Putin discussed the possibility of a US-Russia hockey series, plus another likely POW exchange.
-
Trump earlier this week announced General Kellogg as his โSpecial Envoy to Ukraineโ. Intriguers will recall he was already Trumpโs envoy to Ukraine and Russia, but the Russians reportedly argued he was too close to Ukraine.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
-
๐จ๐ณย China: Shares of China-based EV giant BYD have hit a record high after it announced a new tech that can charge EVs in five minutes (Tesla Superchargers can take half an hour). China plans to add 460,000 new EV chargers this year.
-
๐ต๐ฑย Poland: The defence ministers of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have announced plans to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which prohibits the use of antipersonnel mines. The NATO members, whoโve all previously faced Moscow occupation, are framing this as a way to deter more Russian aggression.
-
๐ฎ๐ณย India: Delhi has reportedly asked the visiting US spymaster (Gabbard) to list the โSikhs for Justiceโ (SFJ) separatist group as terrorists. It comes after the US charged a former member of Indiaโs intelligence services over a plot to assassinate SFJโs general-counsel (a US-Canadian citizen) on US soil.
-
๐ฒ๐ฝย Mexico: President Sheinbaum has pledged to strengthen Mexicoโs government commission responsible for finding missing people, after the discovery of another mass grave used by cartels. The countryโs missing persons register currently lists more than 120,000 people.ย
-
๐ธ๐ดย Somalia: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has dismissed his defence minister following reported pressure from the US, which had apparently become unsettled by his strong links with Turkey. Under the outgoing minister, Somalia signed a comprehensive naval, trade, and defence pact with Ankara last year.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
โ๏ธ Diplomats on the move
-
๐บ๐ธ US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is now wrapping her tour through the Indo-Pacific and is due to swing by Paris on route back to DC.
-
๐ฎ๐ฑ Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa’ar is scheduled to visit the UK this week.ย
-
๐ช๐บ EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will apparently travel to Vietnam in the coming months as the bloc seeks to diversify its partners.
-
๐ฎ๐ณย Indiaโs Defence Intelligence Agency chief, DS Rana, is in Australia for a three-day visit aimed at bolstering security ties.
-
And a senior delegation from ๐จ๐ณย China has travelled to Panama, days after Hong Kong port operator Hutchison announced itโs selling its Panama Canal ports.
TRUTH OF THE DAY
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Social media platform Truth Social now has one more world leader among its ranks, with Indiaโs Narendra Modi joining the app in an apparent overture to its owner, Donald Trump. In a complex world, players will take every opportunity for influence they can get.
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Modiโs maiden post above features a pic of the two on stage at a 2019 โHowdy Modiโ event in Houston.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about the latest Trump-Putin call? |
Yesterdayโs poll: Do you think Canada can remake its place on the world stage?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ ๐ Yes, it has the resources (73%)
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ No, its reliance on the US runs too deep (24%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ Other (write us!) (2%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ P.D: โIf Trump continues his threats, and if Carney is persuasive enough to keep the Canadian public on side and astute enough to make some tough economic choices, the Canadian economy can survive.โ
-
โ M.T.A: โShifting global influence will require years of economic diversification, military investment, and diplomatic repositioning โnot a quick transformation. โ
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โย B.A: โIf anything, maybe Canada can now actually develop a place on the world stage that doesn’t involve living in the shadows of America.โ
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
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Disclosures
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1 Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
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2 The rankings are based on submitted applications and public company database research, with winners selected based on their fiscal-year revenue growth percentage over a three-year period.
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3 A minimum investment of $1,950 is required to receive bonus shares. 100% bonus shares are offered on investments of $9,950+.