Plus: Truth of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Spot the difference: the Trump-Putin call |
2️⃣ Diplomats on the move |
3️⃣ Truth of the day |
Hi Intriguer. They say knowledge is knowing that tomato is a fruit, while wisdom is knowing not to put it in a fruit salad.
It’s a distinction (about wisdom, not fruit) we try to breathe into our briefings, and it’s one you might notice in today’s lead on the latest Trump-Putin phone call.
Police detain Erdoğan’s main rival.
Authorities have arrested Ekrem İmamoğlu, President Erdoğan’s top rival and Istanbul’s popular mayor, days before he was set to be named a presidential candidate for 2028. He’s among 100 others being investigated on suspicion of fraud, bribery, and other allegations, which he rejects as politically motivated. The lira plunged on the news.
Germany moves to ease debt brake to boost defence.
Germany’s lawmakers have approved a historic easing of the country’s famous debt brake, freeing up $500B+ for spending on defence and infrastructure. Subject to an upper house vote on Friday, this upends decades of debt hesitancy, giving Berlin more fiscal space to spur Germany’s economy and respond to Russia’s war in Europe.
DR Congo and Rwanda call for ceasefire.
The two leaders issued a joint statement following direct talks in Qatar and called for an “immediate ceasefire” in eastern DR Congo, where Rwanda-backed M23 rebels have been advancing. It’s unclear how M23 might respond given its patchy approach to talks.
Trump releases unredacted JFK files.
The US National Archives just published ~80,000 pages, with initial reports suggesting no earth-shattering new revelation. The 1960s-era Warren Commission found Lee Harvey Oswald (a former marine turned communist activist) acted alone, and these latest releases seem to focus on his movements, plus the broader international reaction to JFK’s death.
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TOP STORY
Spot the difference: the Trump-Putin phone call
Presidents Trump and Putin have just wrapped another 90-minute phone call, so dip that rusk in your coffee or cocoa and join us for a quick guide on what each side is now claiming, before wrapping with a high-stakes game of ‘spot the difference’:
🇺🇸 Starting with Washington, Trump posted…
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“We agreed to an immediate Ceasefire on all Energy and Infrastructure”, and
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“we will be working quickly to have a Complete Ceasefire”.
Trump’s press office then gave a longer read-out adding that…
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“the movement to peace” will also begin with “technical negotiations on the implementation of a Black Sea maritime ceasefire”, and
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the broader “negotiations will begin immediately in the Middle East”.
🇷🇺 As for the read-out from Moscow? Putin highlighted that…
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“Complete cessation of providing Kiev with foreign military aid and intelligence must become the key condition”, and
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Putin “responded favourably” to the proposal “to mutually refrain from strikes on energy infrastructure for 30 days.”
Spot the difference?
First, Trump suggests there’s now an immediate ceasefire on both energy and infrastructure, while Putin’s read-out refers instead to “energy infrastructure”.
Maybe it’s a high-stakes typo, or maybe it’s the difference between stopping hits on power plants, grids, and refineries only, versus also stopping hits on (say) water, telco, bridges, railroads, and even sports stadiums.
Second, while Trump’s read-out names a place (Middle East) and time (immediate) for talks, Putin merely flags his “intention to continue efforts”. A bit flaky?
Third, while Trump refers to both Putin and Zelensky wanting peace, Putin says he’s committed to settling this “bilaterally” via US-Russia taskforces, seemingly icing out Kyiv.
And fourth, Putin also reiterates his condition that any ceasefire must also involve the US cutting off Ukraine’s access to security assistance and intelligence — Trump has already test-run both cuts since taking office.
As for Zelensky’s response? Speaking from Finland, he noted, "we will support such a proposal, but we're very interested in the details".
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As intriguing as the above game of DC-Moscow ‘spot the difference’ might be, the more meaningful version might be the game of Moscow-Kyiv ‘spot the difference’ — ie, between the US-backed ceasefire that Ukraine already accepted (immediate and unconditional) versus the conditions Putin is now demanding. For example:
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He wants a halt to attacks on energy facilities because that’s where Ukraine is hurting him most, hitting ~15 out of ~33 major Russian refineries and thus curbing his ability to finance his war and keep his economy afloat. The Ukrainians also just claimed a new 3,000km-range drone putting even more of Putin’s energy at risk. That’s all why Putin quietly listed energy output as a state secret last year, and also why he’s pushing for an energy ceasefire now.
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Ditto, Putin is talking about a Black Sea maritime ceasefire because he had to quietly withdraw his entire Black Sea fleet from pounding Ukrainian cities last year after Ukraine (with no real navy) wiped out a third of it — that’s 26 vessels.
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Oh, and when Putin insists on cuts to US military and intelligence assistance in Ukraine’s self-defence, he’s pushing for a repeat of what we saw last weekend, when Putin used Trump’s brief intel blackout to surprise Zelensky’s troops in Kursk, seizing back a chunk of Ukraine’s leverage in these talks.
So… what’s really happening here? Putin has rejected Ukraine’s US-backed agreement to an immediate and unconditional ceasefire, and is instead insisting the US curb some of the few advantages Ukraine still has in defending itself.
But of course, it’s all worded in a way that a) might seem reasonable to a war-weary audience in the West, b) still gives Trump something to claim as a win, and c) again reframes Ukraine’s self-defence (rather than Russia’s invasion) as the obstacle to peace.
So sure, maybe this is a step closer to peace. Or maybe, dear Intriguer, it’s just a reminder that everyone says they want peace. Even the invaders.
Also worth noting:
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The Kremlin’s read-out also suggests Trump and Putin discussed the possibility of a US-Russia hockey series, plus another likely POW exchange.
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Trump earlier this week announced General Kellogg as his ‘Special Envoy to Ukraine’. Intriguers will recall he was already Trump’s envoy to Ukraine and Russia, but the Russians reportedly argued he was too close to Ukraine.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: Shares of China-based EV giant BYD have hit a record high after it announced a new tech that can charge EVs in five minutes (Tesla Superchargers can take half an hour). China plans to add 460,000 new EV chargers this year.
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🇵🇱 Poland: The defence ministers of Poland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania have announced plans to withdraw from the Ottawa Treaty, which prohibits the use of antipersonnel mines. The NATO members, who’ve all previously faced Moscow occupation, are framing this as a way to deter more Russian aggression.
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🇮🇳 India: Delhi has reportedly asked the visiting US spymaster (Gabbard) to list the ’Sikhs for Justice’ (SFJ) separatist group as terrorists. It comes after the US charged a former member of India’s intelligence services over a plot to assassinate SFJ’s general-counsel (a US-Canadian citizen) on US soil.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: President Sheinbaum has pledged to strengthen Mexico’s government commission responsible for finding missing people, after the discovery of another mass grave used by cartels. The country’s missing persons register currently lists more than 120,000 people.
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🇸🇴 Somalia: President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud has dismissed his defence minister following reported pressure from the US, which had apparently become unsettled by his strong links with Turkey. Under the outgoing minister, Somalia signed a comprehensive naval, trade, and defence pact with Ankara last year.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
✈️ Diplomats on the move
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🇺🇸 US Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard is now wrapping her tour through the Indo-Pacific and is due to swing by Paris on route back to DC.
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🇮🇱 Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar is scheduled to visit the UK this week.
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🇪🇺 EU Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen will apparently travel to Vietnam in the coming months as the bloc seeks to diversify its partners.
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🇮🇳 India’s Defence Intelligence Agency chief, DS Rana, is in Australia for a three-day visit aimed at bolstering security ties.
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And a senior delegation from 🇨🇳 China has travelled to Panama, days after Hong Kong port operator Hutchison announced it’s selling its Panama Canal ports.
TRUTH OF THE DAY
Social media platform Truth Social now has one more world leader among its ranks, with India’s Narendra Modi joining the app in an apparent overture to its owner, Donald Trump. In a complex world, players will take every opportunity for influence they can get.
Modi’s maiden post above features a pic of the two on stage at a 2019 ‘Howdy Modi’ event in Houston.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about the latest Trump-Putin call? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Canada can remake its place on the world stage?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👍 Yes, it has the resources (73%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✋ No, its reliance on the US runs too deep (24%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍ Other (write us!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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👍 P.D: “If Trump continues his threats, and if Carney is persuasive enough to keep the Canadian public on side and astute enough to make some tough economic choices, the Canadian economy can survive.”
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✋ M.T.A: “Shifting global influence will require years of economic diversification, military investment, and diplomatic repositioning —not a quick transformation. ”
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✍ B.A: “If anything, maybe Canada can now actually develop a place on the world stage that doesn't involve living in the shadows of America.”
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