🌍 Stellantis buys stake in Chinese EV startup

Hi there Intriguer. If you’re swinging through Porirua in New Zealand this weekend, check out the town’s late-night Celine Dion siren battles: folks there are rigging dozens of emergency sirens up to their cars and blasting power ballads like ‘My Heart Will Go On’ through the streets until 2am in the morning.

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🚗 EU-US auto giant teams up with Chinese EV start-up.

• ⚔️ Israel is “preparing for next steps”.

• ➕ Plus: An unfortunately-timed essay, how the papers are covering the new US Speaker of the House, and a treaty granting jurisdiction over “all heavenly bodies”.

1. 🇰🇵 North Korea: A small boat with possible defectors from North Korea has been detained after crossing into South Korean waters. Reported defections from North Korea have decreased significantly in the last 15 years, dropping from 3,000 in 2009 to 67 last year.

2. 🇸🇰 Slovakia: Newly returned leader Robert Fico has announced a halt to military aid to Ukraine, fulfilling a key campaign promise a day into his term. The previous administration had transferred all 13 of Slovakia’s MiG-29 fighter jets to Ukraine.

3. 🇨🇳 China: Former premier Li Keqiang died of a reported heart attack early this morning. He was technically China’s second-highest ranking official until his retirement earlier this year, though he was widely viewed as more of a figurehead in support of President Xi.

4. 🇨🇴 Colombia: China and Colombia have elevated their ties to a ‘strategic partnership’, meaning 10 of China’s 11 South American relationships are now strategic partnerships. China has standard diplomatic ties with Guyana and no formal ties at all with Paraguay (which recognises Taiwan).

5. 🇳🇬 Nigeria: A top court has rejected a final challenge against President Bola Tinubu’s victory in February’s presidential elections. The second and third-placed candidates had claimed the election was marred by irregularities.

🚗 Stellantis | Geo-economics

Stellantis looks to Chinese EV start-up

EU-US auto group Stellantis (think Chrysler, Jeep, Maserati, Peugeot) has announced plans to buy a 21% stake in Chinese electric vehicle (EV) maker Zhejiang Leapmotor Technology. The deal also includes a new Stellantis-led joint venture for the production and sale of Leapmotor EVs outside China.

On paper, it’s a win-win: Leapmotor gets backing from the world’s 4th largest automaker to help reach global markets, while the EU-US giant taps the world’s largest and lowest-cost EV production base (China).

Stellantis and others also have good reason to enter China itself:

• 🚗 It’s the world’s largest EV market (more than half of all EVs on the road are now in China), and

• 📈 It’s growing fast, with automakers smashing monthly sales records on the regular.

But the deal also comes at an intriguing time:

• Just weeks ago, the EU launched a probe into China’s EV subsidies, accusing Beijing of keeping its EV prices “artificially low”, and

• Just days ago, Stellantis said it was ending manufacturing in China.

Intrigue’s take: While Western governments ‘de-risk’ away from China, Western companies still make their own choices. And this Stellantis choice is a classic case of “if you can’t beat ‘em, join ‘em”. The CEO said it yesterday: “We can be benefiting from this Chinese offensive rather than being a victim.”

And it works both ways: we’ve written previously on how some Chinese firms have relocated near the US to cut costs, avoid tariffs, and hedge risk.

It’s all a reminder that policy can look one way on the drawing board, and another way once it hits the real world.

🎧 Intrigue Outloud

Need to catch Intrigue on the go? Intrigue Outloud is your favourite geopolitics newsletter delivered to your podcast app of choice, with extra insights from host Ethan Plotkin and Intrigue co-founder John Fowler.

On today's episode: Can Biden restrain Bibi?

📰 How newspapers covered…

The election of Mike Johnson as the new US House Speaker

⚔️ Israel | War

Israel’s limited ground operation in Gaza

A contingent of Israeli tanks and infantry crossed briefly into Northern Gaza early yesterday (Thursday), to test and target Hamas border infrastructure.

If Israel invades Gaza (as it’s vowed to do), its soldiers will encounter:

• Around 50,000 enemy forces (between Hamas and other groups)

• Asymmetrical systems like drones and anti-tank weapons

• Entrenched urban positions that offer a defensive advantage

• The continued presence of civilians and hostages

• A tunnel network up to 500km long (100km longer than the New York City subway system), and

• The possibility of more fronts opening up elsewhere.

And this is all while Israel tries to sustain support across a world that’s watching along in high-def.

Intrigue’s take: Israel’s delay was initially attributed to weather, but the list of possible reasons is now getting long: tough questions from the US, UK and France; pressure from hostage families and their governments; the need for a longer-term plan; and more time for the US to deploy deterrence.

But as we approach three weeks since the Hamas attacks, this latest ground incursion suggests Israel still very much plans to go in.

Also worth noting:

• We discussed Israel’s delay in today’s Intrigue Outloud podcast.

• Israel says it’s struck more than 7,000 targets inside Gaza since 7 October. Around 6,500 people have been killed in Gaza in the same period, according to the strip’s Hamas-controlled health ministry.

➕ Extra Intrigue

A peace-minded crossword for the weekend

🗳️ Quiz time!

📖 Essay of the day

US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan wrote a piece in the latest Foreign Affairs magazine, which went to print before the 7 October Hamas attacks. The print version (pictured above) was soon superseded by events, with lines like “the Middle East … is quieter today than it has been for decades.”

It’s not an easy time to be writing about our world.