🌍 Taiwan’s opposition unites

Hi Intriguer. A family member once gave me a book for Christmas detailing the 100 things you can do instead of reaching for your phone. If you’ve had a more brutal Christmas burn, please do let me know.

I mention that because it’s shaping up to be a phone-heavy weekend, as Taiwan’s opposition coalition reveals who’ll lead its joint ticket (more on that below), before Argentina makes history on Sunday electing either its first libertarian president, or its first president who just delivered 140% inflation.

And that’s after Spain likely makes history today, as King Felipe VI swears Pedro Sanchez back in with the help of separatist parties that don’t actually want to be Spanish. This is why I still haven’t read that Christmas-burn book yet, let alone adopted its phone-free philosophy.

PS – It’s because of you all that I can do what I love for a living. So to say thanks, we’re giving away $2k in cold, hard cash. Entries close Monday! More info below.

– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor

Kishida and Xi meet again. The leaders of Japan and China met for hours in a San Francisco hotel yesterday. It was a year since they last met, so the two neighbours had a bit to catch up on, including disputes over territory, trade, Taiwan, and tech. They emerged with plenty of bromides, but little else.

Turkey takes a rain check. The Turkish parliament’s foreign affairs committee has delayed voting on Sweden’s NATO accession, after a motion argued negotiations with Sweden hadn’t “matured” enough yet. It’s been 18 months (and how many Swedish concessions?) since Stockholm submitted its bid.

OPEC+ has some thinking to do. Oil prices fell to ~US$77 per barrel yesterday, meaning the group of oil exporting countries will likely extend production cuts when they meet on 26 November. Low prices are bad news for Russia and Saudi Arabia who need prices above US$80 to fund their governments.

Israel says it’s found a tunnel under Al-Shifa hospital. The Israeli military has released a video which it says shows a tunnel used by Hamas outside Gaza’s Al-Shifa hospital. The hospital’s role in this war has become a bit of a Rorschach test for how people view the wider conflict.

Xi-Biden don’t impress me much. The verdicts are trickling in, and Bloomberg isn’t convinced by the Xi-Biden meeting on Wednesday, writing, “the US and China have some fundamental disagreements — the kind that could trigger a Cold War”. 2024 brings both the US and Taiwanese elections, which could make the bonhomie on display this week short-lived.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

Three questions come to mind here. First, what does Beijing make of all this? It’s been open in its disdain for the ruling DPP, warning that the party’s positions could lead to war. The chance the DPP might not win another term will please them.

Which leads to the second question: what do the markets think? Taiwan’s stocks and currency both jumped when the news first broke. Clearly macro strategists think an opposition victory makes a ‘peaceful reunification’ of Taiwan with the mainland more likely. Keeping the peace would be good for business.

But the third question is the most important of all: what do Taiwanese voters think? They’ve survived and thrived in Taiwan’s unique grey area for decades, so our bet is the party that best convinces voters that they’ll extend the peaceful status quo, will win.

Also worth noting: 

• The initial joint ticket announcement made no mention of a fourth candidate, billionaire Foxconn founder Terry Gou, who’s previously called for a united opposition.

• During their Wednesday meeting, US President Biden warned China’s President Xi not to interfere in Taiwan’s vote. Xi reportedly said “China will realize reunification, and this is unstoppable.”

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ROAD TO COP28

The run-up to COP… 31?

A guest piece by Dan Ilic

As the COP28 climate talks kick off in Dubai later this month, there are two intriguing tussles playing out for the right to run COP31 in 2026.

The first is an international tussle between Turkey and Australia, who’ve both submitted bids. For Turkey, it’s a flex to bring east and west to its table. And for the fossil fuel leviathan, Australia, it’s a show of ambition to shake its image as a global climate pariah.

Australia isn’t on its own. In principle, it’s a joint bid with Pacific Island nations. The same nations that have been very vocal this month in criticising the two-year-old Labor government for its approach to emissions reduction and fossil fuel subsidies.

Despite these grumbles, the Australia-Pacific bid looks the strongest of the two.

Turkey has a full plate already: it’s dealing with local crises, natural disasters, and regional conflicts. So it’s expected to drop out, leaving the Australia-Pacific bid the only one standing. A nice change, as historically it’s been Australia that backs away from Turkey.

The second tussle is a domestic one within Australia, where there’s a huge appetite to nab the climate talks ASAP and shore-up voter support ahead of next year’s elections. 

The polls aren’t looking like a slam dunk for the ruling Labor party, meaning there’s a chance it could win the COP31 hosting rights but lose power at home before the summit actually arrives. So then who ends up co-hosting the world’s climate change talks in 2026? 

That would be Australia’s more COP-sceptical opposition. And who knows where that would leave the COP itself.

Intrigue’s take: Dan Ilic is an award-winning Australian comedian and investigative humourist. His very own A Rational Fear has been named Australia’s comedy podcast of the year since 2020. We’re chuffed he’s shared his perspectives with us today.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1.  🇦🇲 Armenia: Moscow said Wednesday (15 November) that Armenia would skip the Russia-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation summit in Belarus next week. Armenia has publicly questioned the value of its security ties with Russia while pursuing deeper ties with the West.

2. 🇪🇸 Spain: Parliament re-appointed Pedro ​​Sánchez as prime minister yesterday (Thursday). To retain power, Sánchez agreed to grant amnesty to Catalan leaders behind the unlawful 2017 independence referendum.

3. 🇰🇭 Cambodia: A China-funded airport opened yesterday in Cambodia’s Siem Reap province near the famous Angkor Wat temple. The $1.1B airport is now Cambodia’s largest.

4. 🇵🇾 Paraguay: The foreign ministry says it will restore relations with Venezuela in another sign of Venezuelan President Maduro’s diplomatic re-emergence. They severed ties in 2019 after Paraguay recognised opposition leader Juan Guaido as Venezuela’s legitimate president.  

5. 🇲🇬 Madagascar: Andry Rajoelina is projected to win a third term as president following yesterday’s elections, which were boycotted by most opposition candidates. Police imposed a curfew the previous night after several polling stations were set on fire.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

As you all know, we met up in 🇺🇸 Austin last weekend for our first official Intrigue retreat. So here are our tried and tested recommendations if you’re in town this weekend: 

• 🥃 Drinks: Pop by Whisler’s for great cocktails or be mesmerised by their huge Mezcal selection in the unassuming upstairs bar. 

• 🌮 Food: Looking for the best Birria in town? Head to C-Spot for some authentic truck tacos. 

• 🚤 Tour: Take a cruise down the Colorado River and check out some of the remarkable waterfront homes. It’s good to have goals, right?

QUIZ

Answers: 1-b, 2-d, 3-c.