🌍 Tensions flare up between Kosovo and Serbia

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇨🇳 China: US officials say China has turned down a much-anticipated meeting between the two countries’ defence ministers in Singapore later this week. Chinese Defence Minister Li Shangfu is currently under US sanctions.

2. 🇪🇸 Spain: Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called for snap elections on Monday, after his party’s dire performance in local ballots the day prior. General elections will now be held in July rather than at the end of the year.

3. 🇮🇳 India: Delhi has filed a criminal complaint against British defence firms Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems, accusing them of engaging in corrupt practices in India’s purchase of over 100 training jets.

4. 🇸🇻 El Salvador: Former President Mauricio Funes has been sentenced (in absentia) to 14 years in prison for negotiating with gangs to establish a truce in 2012. Current President Nayib Bukele, who’s led a crackdown on gangs, has also been accused of negotiating with them.

5. 🇺🇬 Uganda: The US has said it’s considering imposing sanctions and visa restrictions after Uganda implemented one of the world’s toughest anti-gay laws on Monday. The new law includes penalties such as life imprisonment and capital punishment.

🇽🇰 KOSOVO | GEOPOLITICS

Clashes between protesters and NATO peacekeepers leave dozens injured

Briefly: At least 30 NATO peacekeepers and just as many civilians have been injured in clashes involving ethnic Serbian protesters in North Kosovo. The protesters were gathered outside a municipal building to demonstrate against new ethnic Albanian mayors, who were elected in a disputed vote in April.

While Kosovo is inhabited primarily by ethnic Albanians, its northern region is home to a Serbian majority. And long-simmering ethnic tensions there came to a head last week. Local Serbs are accusing Kosovo of:

• Reneging on its promise to grant them more autonomy, and

• Stoking tensions by backing ethnic Albanian mayors who were elected in polls that the Serbs had boycotted (voter turnout was <4%).

For its part, Kosovo has accused neighbouring Serbia of stirring the pot and supporting violent protesters.

Last Friday’s violence was the worst flare-up in a decade. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić spent the night with Serbian troops near the Kosovo border and placed the army at its highest state of alert. Meanwhile, NATO labelled the attacks against its peacekeeping mission “totally unacceptable”.

Intrigue’s take: If you were to look up ‘“how to undo years of diplomatic efforts in a day”, you might find a detailed account of Friday’s events.

The EU and US have been trying to foster the normalisation of Serbia-Kosovo relations for more than a decade, and things were finally starting to look hopeful just weeks ago. Aaand now it seems we’re back to square one.

Also worth noting:

• Kosovo declared independence from Serbia in 2008, but Serbia won’t recognise it (neither will Russia, China nor five EU countries).

• The NATO Mission in Kosovo was established in 1999 and has around 3,800 troops from 27 countries. It’s now sending an extra 700 troops.

• The US has announced measures against Kosovo for its alleged refusal to heed advice and avoid stoking tensions in its Serb-majority north.

• Serbian tennis star Novak Djokovic has been accused of aggravating the situation after he wrote that Kosovo was "the heart of Serbia" on a camera lens after his first-round victory at the French Open on Monday.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Hubspot

🇹🇭 THAILAND | POLITICS

Thailand’s winning coalition is already looking shaky

Briefly: The winners of Thailand’s recent elections are already mired in bickering and infighting. This suggests that, after nearly a decade of military rule, the road to forming a stable and democratic government might be even bumpier than expected.

The two winning parties, Move Forward and Pheu Thai, need to stick together if they want to form a government without relying on conservative parties from the outgoing administration.

But they’re now divided on who gets the powerful role of the house speaker. And this bodes poorly for their ability to cooperate, which could increase the risk that Move Forward’s Pita Limjaroenrat fails to become prime minister, despite winning the most seats.

Susannah Patton’s take: Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra still controls the Pheu Thai party, and his decision will be key. He could ditch the upstart Move Forward party and form a coalition with military-aligned parties, but the risk is he’d never win another election again – these parties are deeply unpopular.

Also worth noting: 

• Thailand’s constitution allows a lengthy delay of up to three months between the election and the new government forming, leaving plenty of time for the country’s powerful conservative forces to undermine the election results.

• Intrigue’s note: Susannah previously served as a diplomat in Thailand and is one of our favourite gurus on Southeast Asia. To get her latest insights on the region, be sure to follow Susannah on Twitter, and check out some of her work at The Lowy Institute.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what’s been trending on Twitter around the world:

• #AGRIFISH is trending in 🇧🇪 Belgium due to the EU Agriculture and Fisheries Council meeting that took place yesterday (Tuesday).

• Beijing is trending in the 🇲🇻 Maldives after Elon Musk landed in Beijing to meet the Chinese foreign minister.

• Erdogan is trending in 🇹🇳 Tunisia after his victory in Sunday’s Turkish elections.

📜 THIS DAY IN HISTORY

Did you know there was almost a pan-Caribbean mega-state? Back in 1958, a dozen British colonies (including Jamaica, Barbados, and Trinidad and Tobago) prepared for independence by forming the West Indies Federation, which lasted until this day in 1962, when political in-fighting led to its dissolution.

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Which infrastructure do you think is most vulnerable right now?

🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🌊 Undersea cables (33%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚀 Satellites (11%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚢 Air / water ports (11%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💽 Data centres (41%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)

Your two cents:

• 💽 A.F: “Data centres dictate and dominate our lives, yet both physical and technological protection(s) are comically lax. Look no further than a certain 20-year-old low-level military employee’s recent, low-barrier ability to share state secrets across Discord & beyond…”

• 🚢 K.F: “Look at the damage to supply lines caused by just one ship getting stuck in the Suez Canal.”

• ✍️ R.G.F: “Electrical grid”