🌍 The 24th World Petroleum Congress

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No.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🛢️ The oil industry is still bullish.

• 🇵🇰 Pakistan finally gets an election date.

• ➕ Plus: Firing up the war machine, how the papers are covering the Murdoch succession, and a giraffe making history in Namibia.

1. 🇦🇲 Armenia: Thousands of ethnic Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh have begun travelling to Armenia amid fears of ‘ethnic cleansing’ from Azerbaijani forces. Azerbaijan mounted a surprise military operation to seize the ethnic Armenian enclave last week.

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: Ukraine has claimed responsibility for a cruise missile attack on Russia’s naval HQ in Crimea on Friday. Kyiv says it was timed to coincide with a meeting of Russian commanders.

3. 🇻🇺 Vanuatu: President Biden is hosting a second summit with Pacific Island leaders today (Monday). Vanuatu’s leader won’t be there due to a no-confidence vote back home. The leader of Solomon Islands is also skipping the summit, for reasons unknown.

4. 🇨🇦 Canada: Indian authorities have halted visa services for Canadians due to “security threats”. The move comes after Ottawa claimed India could be involved in the killing of a Canadian citizen.

5. 🇲🇱 Mali: The historic city of Timbuktu has been under siege from jihadi militants for weeks, and is now reportedly facing severe food shortages. Mali’s military has struggled to halt the country’s insurgency since seizing power in 2020.

🛢️ World Petroleum Congress | Energy

Oil executives are bullish

While Climate Week NYC was underway, one of the world's largest oil and gas events happened in Canada last week: the 24th World Petroleum Congress (WPC), known informally as the ‘Olympics of Oil’.

Didn't make it along? Here are some key quotes 👇

"This is the first time that a peak in demand is visible"

Okay, this wasn’t actually from the WPC, but a remarkable op-ed penned beforehand by Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency (IEA) chief, forecasting that demand for oil will go into permanent decline by 2030.

Birol wasn’t at the WPC, but the event’s speakers were keen to refute him:

“It’s growing, not declining”

According to the CEO of the world’s largest oil company (Aramco), not only is ‘peak oil’ not in view, but demand is growing. So he said more oil investment is key to avoid shortages, price spikes, and associated hardship.

“There seems to be wishful thinking that we’re going to flip a switch”

This was the Exxon chief, essentially arguing that energy alternatives aren't ready yet. So he likewise said we need to invest more in oil/gas production, to maintain energy security and affordability while the transition plays out.

“We’re transitioning away from emissions, not from oil and gas”

The premier of Alberta (the WPC host) said the way you cut emissions without cutting oil is via carbon capture and storage (CCS) tech, which several speakers noted is included in the UN’s net zero forecasts.

“Can I ask my Dutch friends to phase out cows?”

This was the Saudi energy minister, essentially questioning the fairness of the energy transition in a world where ~20% of global emissions come from agriculture, and ~79% of historical emissions have come from rich countries.

So all in all, the oil industry seems pretty bullish about its own future.

Intrigue's take: It’d be surprising for an industry to endorse a forecast of its own, imminent decline. And history will soon enough cast its own judgement. But in the meantime, CCS tech still has a mixed track record, while the costs of solar and batteries have each collapsed ~90% in a decade.

The COP climate summit this Nov-December is looking pretty intriguing.

Also worth noting:

• The next World Petroleum Congress is due to be held in Riyadh in 2026.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Rupert Murdoch stepping down as chair of his media holdings.

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🇵🇰 Pakistan | Politics

Elections are set for early next year

Pakistani election authorities have announced (🇵🇰) the next general election will take place in late January, instead of this coming November.

Pakistan hasn’t had an elected parliament since 9 August, and it’s facing the full spectrum of crises right now:

• 💸 The poverty rate remains stubbornly high at around 40%

• 📈 Energy prices have skyrocketed, triggering protests, and

• 🎖️ A series of political and institutional crises have eroded popular trust in institutions, further entrenching the military’s role.

So these election delays add to the air of uncertainty in Pakistan right now.

Intrigue’s take: Of course, elections in Pakistan don’t exactly have a track record of restoring stability, either: in 76 years, no prime minister has completed their full five-year term. Toss the country’s nukes into the mix, and you have elections well worth watching.

Also worth noting:

• Former leader Imran Khan’s party won a majority of seats at the 2018 election, before being ousted in a no-confidence motion in 2022. He was arrested earlier this year on corruption charges.

• A court just extended Khan’s detention in relation to allegations he leaked a classified Pakistani cable. His supporters say the cable shows US involvement in Khan’s ousting. The US rejects these claims.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Your weekly roundup of the world’s more extravagant news:

• TikTok has an internal matchmaking service for employees to introduce their colleagues to potential partners.

• In Australia, authorities have fined a man $1,300 for taking his pet python surfing.

• Folks in Namibia have found the world’s first spotless giraffe in the wild (i.e., a giraffe without spots, not a giraffe that’s extremely clean).

• In Michigan, a missing toddler has been found napping in the woods with the two family dogs.

• And in Israel, a heavily armoured tank went missing before somehow turning up in a junkyard.

🗳️ Poll time!

📊 Chart of the day

War is a costly affair. Russian President Vladimir Putin is currently floating increasing his country’s defence budget to 6% of GDP in 2024, up from 3.9% in 2023 and 2.7% in 2021. Current US defence spending is at around ~3.1% of GDP, forecast to drop to 2.8% of GDP by 2032.

Thursday’s poll: Do you think Azerbaijan's military operation in Nagorno-Karabakh could have been prevented?

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🛡️ Yes, the key world powers failed to act (26%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚔️ No, it was bound to happen sooner or later (69%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (5%)

Your two cents:

• ✍️ L: “Once they lost Russian support, it was inevitable.”

• 🛡️ G.W: “It was definitely clever timing on Azerbaijan's behalf, and somewhere there will be an analyst face-palming in horror, as warnings of such potential action weren't taken seriously. We may have no choice but to now take it very seriously, moving forward.”

• ⚔️ G.J: “Realtors will tell you it's all about location, location, location — and the mingling of borders between these 2 countries was a debt that came due.”