Plus: Macron's polls don't look good
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Six lines from the Biden-Trump debate |
2️⃣ The latest polls aren’t good for Macron |
3️⃣ A presidential quiz |
Hi Intriguer. This week, there’s been quite the buzz in Washington DC around a highly anticipated event, with big screen TVs set up in bars and outdoor venues, and plenty of watch party invitations doing the rounds.
That’s right, folks here have been pumped about the 2024 UEFA European Football Championship matches (especially the superb win by underdog Georgia over Portugal).
Oh, and another event also took place this week. It was the first 2024 US presidential debate between Biden and Trump. I, like millions of other self-flagellating viewers, tuned in last night for the event. We try to make sense of what was said and what it all means in our top story today. Brace yourselves!
EU leaders endorse von der Leyen.
The current EU Commission President is now one crucial step closer to being reappointed to another five-year term after EU leaders confirmed her re-nomination. Leaders also chose former Portuguese leader António Costa as EU Council president, and Estonian leader Kaja Kallas as the EU’s top diplomat. Both von der Leyen and Kallas (but not Costa) must now be endorsed by the European Parliament.
Two candidates drop out day before Iran election.
Iranians heading to the ballot box today (Friday) to elect a new president will find a last-minute change on their ballot sheets after two hard-line candidates decided to drop out of the race yesterday (Thursday). They’re hoping to avoid splitting the conservative vote, though all remaining candidates are still regime loyalists.
Russia sends new citizens to dig trenches in Ukraine.
A Russian official has told a conference in St Petersburg that Russia has now sent 10,000 newly naturalised citizens – who hadn’t registered for military duty – to “dig trenches and build fortifications” in Ukraine.
Anti-government protesters call for Netanyahu’s resignation.
Thousands of protesters have converged on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s home, calling for his resignation and a deal with Hamas to return the remaining hostages in Gaza. Periodic protests in Israel don’t appear to have changed the political landscape, with Netanyahu still holding a stable majority in parliament.
TOP STORY
The Biden-Trump debate
Image courtesy of CNN (which hosted the debate).
Did you miss the debate? Good for you.
It mostly tracked all the themes we foreshadowed yesterday in our weekly Election Intrigue (which is free to subscribe).
And for reasons we'll get to below, reflecting on the international elements of this debate feels a little like reflecting on the ketchup quality at the Super Bowl. But let's quickly get you up to speed with some of the quotes you need to know:
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"I’m the only president this century that doesn’t have — this decade — any troops dying anywhere in the world like he did" – Biden
Biden was the first to bring up Afghanistan, arguing his administration's 2021 withdrawal put an end to ongoing US deaths there. But Trump described that withdrawal – which cost the lives of 13 US service personnel – as "the most embarrassing day in the history of our country's life".
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“When Putin saw that, he said, ‘You know what? I think we’re gonna go in’” – Trump
Trump was arguing that the US withdrawal from Afghanistan projected weakness, which encouraged or enabled Russia’s Putin to mount his full-scale invasion of Ukraine six months later. Trump also repeated his criticism of the costs of US support, said "Ukraine is not winning", and reiterated his claim that he'll end the Russo-Ukraine war before re-taking office.
As for Biden? He noted the US spending went to US defence companies, and that it was Trump who wrote "love letters" to Kim Jong Un and told Putin "do whatever you want". Biden also described Putin as a "war criminal" who wants to rebuild Russia’s empire, and won't stop at Ukraine.
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"We saved Israel" – Biden
Biden was referring to his US-led coalition’s defence against Iran's long-range attack on Israel in April, though again, both candidates support Israel and its pursuit of Hamas. Trump, however, accused Biden of being weaker, prompting Biden to say the only thing he's denied Israel was 2,000 pound bombs, which he noted aren't suitable for dense, populated areas.
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"He's gonna start World War III" – both
Interestingly, both candidates levelled this accusation at the other in one form or another. Trump took credit for NATO's increased defence spending, and (as above) argued that US weakness allowed the current conflicts to break out.
In response, Biden contrasted some of Trump's scepticism on NATO with the current US-led coalition of 50 countries now backing Ukraine – Biden said they understand that "no major war in Europe has ever been contained just to Europe".
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"China has been ripping us off for years" – Trump
That was Trump, though the two candidates were mostly in furious agreement on taking a tougher line on China – they just differ on the details. Trump wants a blanket 60% tariff on all imports from China (and 10% on imports from anywhere else), while Biden’s approach involves targeting a (growing) list of China’s sectors.
Interestingly, Trump also said "we're getting killed on trade deals" with the EU, which probably explains why the euro then immediately dropped.
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"The most comprehensive climate legislation in history" – Biden
That was how Biden preferred to describe his Inflation Reduction Act, while Trump went with “the green new scam”. They also debated their respective decisions to leave (Trump) then re-join (Biden) the 2015 Paris climate agreement – Trump argued the pact was ripping the US off, while Biden noted we just had our hottest year on record, and the US was the only major power not signing up.
Otherwise, the only other unsurprising bit of the debate was when, after calling each other liars, whiners, losers, and the worst presidents in history (plus even trash-talking each other's golf handicap), the debate ended without a handshake.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As the debate rolled on, the Mexican peso, the Canadian dollar, the euro, and China's main stock market all dipped. What happened?
The polls say Trump won (or Biden lost), so markets around America’s top trading partners were reflecting a growing assumption that Trump (and his more protectionist style) will now more likely return to the White House.
Why? Trump's campaign is chuffed and says he stayed on message. But while Biden has insisted the fact-checkers will scrutinise Trump’s performance, members of Biden's own party say the president’s performance was a "disaster" because of the way he often rambled, stumbled, or lost his words. And that's at a time when most US voters were already saying they had concerns about Biden’s age and fitness for office (more so than for Trump, who is three years his junior).
Of course, this has all been a topic for a while, but folks are now attaching their name to it: two influential New York Times columnists (Friedman and Kristof) just called for Biden to step down – Friedman and Biden are close. Various current and former party figures have started to weigh in, too.
But an incumbent has never dropped out this close to election day, and other party figures are defending Biden. Plus, it’s unclear who would replace him (forecasting platforms suggest Gavin Newsom, governor of California), or how that would work (half the US states have a ballot deadline in August).
But either way, that internal party debate might end up having just as much global impact as the one we just watched on CNN.
Also worth noting:
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The Republican Party is due to formally nominate Trump at its convention in Milwaukee from July 15th. The Democratic Party is due to formally nominate Biden at its convention in Chicago from August 19th. Election day is November 5th.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇨🇳 China: State media outlets have announced the expulsion of two former defence ministers (Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe) from the Chinese Communist Party for “serious violation of party discipline and the law”. The most recent minister (Li) was sacked last October, two months after he disappeared from public life without explanation.
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🇩🇪 Germany: Authorities are preparing to set off a 250kg WWII bomb that was found in woods close to a Tesla factory on the outskirts of Berlin. It’s believed as many as 10% of Allied bombs dropped on Germany never exploded, with some still being found decades later.
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🇮🇳 India: Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Russia to meet President Putin soon, according to Russian state media. If confirmed, this would be Modi’s first trip to Russia since Putin launched his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
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🇻🇪 Venezuela: The Carter Centre, a US-based NGO founded by former president Jimmy Carter, will send a team of observers to oversee the upcoming Venezuelan election, after Caracas barred a team of EU election monitors from participating. The center has, however, warned it won’t be able to provide a “comprehensive assessment” of the vote’s fairness.
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🇪🇬 Egypt: A shortage of natural gas has led to more blackouts across Egypt, with two fertiliser producers announcing they would be switching to hydrogen gas to keep production lines open. The Egyptian prime minister blamed the gas shortages on a drop in supply in an unnamed neighbouring country (likely Israel).
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend recommendations from Team Intrigue:
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Read: Discover why some Japanese Olympic athletes will be donning infrared-blocking clothing at next month’s Summer Olympics in Paris.
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Listen: Check out this podcast story of the FBI agent who went undercover to catch one of the most damaging spies in recent US history.
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Watch: Take a look at why Saudi Arabia is now using its oil money to build a $22B railway in the desert.
CHART OF THE DAY
Credits: Financial Times.
Voters handed the party of French President Emmanuel Macron a resounding loss at the European Parliament elections earlier this month, prompting him to call a snap parliamentary election (the first round is this Sunday, the second round is next Sunday).
But the latest polls suggest he might be in for a second hammering, with his centrist coalition (EC) trailing behind rivals further to the right (RN) and left (NFP).
FRIDAY QUIZ
Let’s test your knowledge on presidential debates!
Which presidential candidate refused to wear make up? |
Which debate involved the candidates appearing remotely from opposite ends of the US? |
Which year had a debate marked by a 27-minute loss of audio? |
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✍️ Corrections corner
Thanks to those Intriguers who pointed out that Costa Rica (not Hawaii) produces the most pineapples!