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IN TODAYβS EDITION
1οΈβ£ The defence industry in 4 numbers |
2οΈβ£ Drone rides in Hong Kong? |
3οΈβ£ Meal of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Know the name Oleg Gordievsky? He was the Soviet intelligence officer who defected to the West back in the 1970s, but still stuck it out with the KGB as a double agent for another decade β that granted the West a critical peek into a decaying and paranoid Soviet system.
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Still under police surveillance, he passed away at his UK home a few days ago, aged 86. If youβre interested to learn more about the man, his daring 1985 escape in the trunk of a British embassy vehicle, and his legacy to this day, I heartily recommend Ben Macintyreβs remarkable 2018 biography, The Spy and the Traitor.
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Whatβs stuck with me most from that book is Olegβs courage and moral clarity, two things our world will need as defence industries help governments everywhere re-arm β our lead today.
THE HEADLINES
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Huge protests after Istanbul mayorβs arrest.
A Turkish court has formally arrested Istanbul mayor and President Erdoganβs top rival Ekrem Δ°mamoΔlu, triggering protests across the country. Authorities have also blocked opposition social media accounts, and banned short-selling as markets wobble.
Israel-Gaza updates.
The Israeli cabinet has started a process to oust the attorney-general over βsubstantial differencesβ, in a move sheβs rejected as political. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza has reportedly killed a Hamas leader undergoing treatment, with local authorities reporting bystanders were also injured.
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Carney calls Canadian snap election.
As expected, newly inaugurated leader Mark Carney has called a snap election for 28 April, warning that Canada now faces βthe most significant crisis of our lifetimeβ.
US-Russia talks resume.
US and Russian officials have restarted peace talks in Saudi Arabia today (Monday), days after Putin rejected Trumpβs proposed immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine described its own latest talks with the US overnight as βproductiveβ.
US officials visit Greenland.
A delegation including the second lady (Usha Vance) and national security advisor (Mike Waltz) will visit Greenland on Thursday. While thereβs no mention of President Trumpβs plans for the territory, Greenlandic leader Mute Egede asked, βwhat is the security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to show a demonstration of power to us.β
South Korean court reinstates PM.
A court has reinstated Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as South Koreaβs acting president after overturning his impeachment. The court hasnβt yet decided the fate of the president.
A virtual briefing with Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir
Whatβs it like to be a NATO ally with no military?
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As a former foreignΒ minister, Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir has navigated Icelandβs place in an increasingly turbulent world β standing firm on security, energy, and economic resilience while leading Icelandic diplomacy through some of the biggest global shifts in recent history.
Join us live for an unfiltered conversation where sheβll share insights from the frontlines of diplomacy, the tough calls sheβs had to make, and what smaller nations can teach the world about influence, strategy, and resilience. Itβs online this Friday, 9.30am ET.
TOP STORY
The defence industry in four numbers
Rheinmetallβs latest main battle tank, the Panther KF51. Credits: Rheinmetall.
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There are all kinds of wild metrics to help track international security β take the famous Pentagon Pizza Index, which monitors spikes in Dominoβs and Papa Johnβs orders as a proxy for Pentagon folks pulling late nighters when something is brewing.
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Well, here are four less tasty but equally intriguing numbers Intriguers should know:
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πͺπΊΒ 116%
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Thatβs how far stocks in Germany’s arms-maker Rheinmetall have soared just this year β a doubling in 11 weeks, and a 12-fold rise since early 2022.
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Itβs all due, of course, not just to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, but also the seeming US de-prioritisation of Europe’s defence, jolting the continentβs capitals into some historic moves like Germany’s easing of its constitutional debt brake.
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And thatβs enough to trigger talk of an EU defence sector supercycle, with spill-overs into supplying sectors (like energy, chemicals) and other markets (like Korea, where Hanwa has also doubled its market cap as it signs deals with Poland and Romania).
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πΊπΈΒ 10%
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That’s how far down America’s Lockheed Martin is this year. Why?
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Trump remains wary of US security support for allies
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The Pentagon is also in the midst of a cost-cutting drive, and
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European and other capitals therefore want to limit any over-reliance on the US.
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And thatβs all while Lockheed has issued statements denying rumours of any ‘kill switch‘ allowing the US to disable allied F-35 fighter jets. The need to even dispel such a rumour still highlights a) the platform’s dependence on US support, and b) wobbling allied trust in that support (both Canada and Portugal have voiced F-35 doubts just this month).
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ποΈ 11%
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That’s how much Boeing’s stock has jumped since Friday. Why? President Trump just announced Boeing has won a $20B contract to develop the Air Force’s next 6th-generation F-47 fighter jet (rival Lockheed missed out, and its shares dropped 5%).
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Trump said “an experimental version of the plane has secretly been flying for almost five years and we’re confident that it massively overpowers the capabilities of any other nation.”
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But of course, it’s one thing to announce, and another thing to do. And thatβs the challenge for Boeing, which is still dealing with multiple over-runs and missteps.
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Still, Trump’s not shy about his reasons, including…
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π¨π³Β 36
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The J-36 is China’s own presumed sixth-generation jet, which mysteriously appeared over Chengdu last week. Beijing has gone to extraordinary lengths to maintain its secrecy, including via vast blimp hangars plus new laws prohibiting hobbyists from uploading pics.
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So to then casually fly this jet over a city of 21 million people, the same week the US announces its own sixth-gen plans? It has the hallmarks of a controlled release.
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As for what we know? While Chinaβs J-36 has an intriguing design (no tail), three engines (extra thrust), and advanced stealth features, there’s still a heated and nerdy debate around whether this is really another Sputnik moment for the US, or just a flying chassis.
INTRIGUEβS TAKE
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Lord Ismay, NATOβs first secretary general, famously quipped that the allianceβs purpose was to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down. And the above numbers are a reminder we might now be witnessing the opposite: the Russians are back in, the Americans want out, so the Germans are stepping back up.
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And while thereβs been some gloom in Western media circles around the willingness or ability of Europe to fill any US void, things are moving. Rheinmetall’s CEO recently mentioned his firm is now single-handedly producing more artillery shells than the entire US. Thatβs presumably why Russian intelligence has tried to assassinate him.
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Anyway, the other big trend here is in markets, with defence contractors now offering rare upward arrows on charts otherwise splashed red with tariffs and trade tensions. Double your money in 11 weeks? Thatβs crypto territory. And itβs triggering a shift in investor sentiment, with more managers quietly re-defining (or scrapping) ESG rules.
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Sure, itβs partly out of pressure from investors experiencing FOMO; but itβs also partly a reflection of citizens re-evaluating their definition of good, to include a free world that can defend itself and its principles. Still, thatβs never a simple nor easy shift to navigate.
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Also worth noting:
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The euro has strengthened by 7% against the US dollar since its low in January as markets become more optimistic that Europe can address its defence, infrastructure, and other investment gaps.
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In a sign of the times, Rheinmetall (which was a state-owned firm during WWII) just overtook the beleaguered Volkswagen in market cap, and the two are in talks about Rheinmetall potentially repurposing VW auto-plants to make arms.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREβ¦
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π΅π° Pakistan: Security forces have reported another deadly border skirmish with the Pakistani Taliban. It comes just as Pakistanβs top envoy for Afghanistan is in Kabul to pressure the ruling Taliban to rein in armed groups along their shared border.Β
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π»π¦Β Vatican City: Pope Francis made his first appearance yesterday (Sunday), 38 days after first entering hospital with severe pneumonia. Doctors say the pontiff (88) will need to relearn how to speak, plus at least two more months of rest, fuelling speculation around his succession planning.
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ππ° Hong Kong: Hong Kong is mulling tweaks to its transportation laws to allow for rescue, delivery, and even passenger drones across the territory. The cityβs secretary for transport announced the plans over the weekend, with 30 trial projects set to help develop the βlow-altitude economyβ.
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π―π²Β Jamaica: A debate over the meaning of βJamaican rumβ is raging after a local spirits group pushed to exclude overseas-aged rum from the definition. A major local French-owned producer is challenging the new rules, as its business model relies heavily on exporting the good stuff abroad then ageing it in bulk.
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πΏπ¦ South Africa: Hundreds have greeted South Africaβs (ex)ambassador to the US upon his landing back in Cape Town after last weekβs US expulsion. While vowing to wear his US sanction as a βbadge of dignityβ, he says itβs important for South Africa to mend its ties with the US.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
π€£ Your weekly roundup of the worldβs lighter newsΒ
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A school in Italy has a cat serving as vice principal β heβs named Silvio, in case you were curious.
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Folks in Vietnam have stopped buying a wildly popular childrenβs doll after netizens pointed out its face marking resembles Chinaβs nine-dash line.
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Glenrothes in Scotland is selling a $50k single-malt requiring you to smash the bottleβs protective shell with a purpose-built hammer to get the whisky.
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A football club in Bulgaria has had to apologise after holding a minuteβs silence for a player who is still very much still alive.
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And local security guards have commended a German touristβs βgood physical conditionβ after he evaded them and managed to scale a Mayan temple in Mexico.
MEAL OF THE DAY
Credits: Wendyβs First Kitchen.
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One of the fun things about Intrigueβs community is that, no matter the dayβs topic, thereβs a solid chance one of you is out there living and breathing it. Or eating it. Last time we featured an unorthodox new mayonnaise beverage launched across Japan β yep, a member of our exclusive WhatsApp group (which you can join by referring five friends using your unique referral link below) was conducting a taste-test within 24 hours.
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Anywayβ¦ itβs with that in mind that we mention a new local Japanese offering from Wendyβs (the American fast food chain) known as the Takoyaki Burger (π―π΅). Itβs literally takoyaki (Japanβs beloved ball-shaped street food stuffed with octopus and tempura scraps). And theyβve literally jammed three of them into a burger.
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Wendyβs has released this in the lead up to the Osaka-Kansai Expo, which kicks off next month. Any Intriguers in Japan? You know what to doβ¦
DAILY POLL
If your government had extra funds, where would you want them invested? |
Last Thursdayβs poll: Do you think intelligence agencies should release unredacted documents?
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π¨β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ π Yes, full transparency is best (12%)
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π¨π¨π¨π¨β¬οΈβ¬οΈ π°οΈ Yes, but only after several years (38%)
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π©π©π©π©π©π© βοΈ No, they put lives and missions at risk (48%)
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β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ βοΈ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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βοΈ H.O: βReleasing the social security numbers and home addresses and phone numbers of individuals who have participated in official government work does not serve any public interest.β
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π°οΈ K.P.M: βThere comes a time when withholding them becomes counterproductive. Of course, identifying that time is problematic.β
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π J.C: βAfter national security and personnel security issues are addressed. The government should be βof the people, for the peopleβ. That literally means citizens should know what our government is doing on our behalf.β
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βοΈ U.E: βMaybe, then, the right thing to do for intelligence agencies would be to not meddle with investigations and media coverage in the first place…β
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