Plus: Meal of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The defence industry in 4 numbers |
2️⃣ Drone rides in Hong Kong? |
3️⃣ Meal of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Know the name Oleg Gordievsky? He was the Soviet intelligence officer who defected to the West back in the 1970s, but still stuck it out with the KGB as a double agent for another decade — that granted the West a critical peek into a decaying and paranoid Soviet system.
Still under police surveillance, he passed away at his UK home a few days ago, aged 86. If you’re interested to learn more about the man, his daring 1985 escape in the trunk of a British embassy vehicle, and his legacy to this day, I heartily recommend Ben Macintyre’s remarkable 2018 biography, The Spy and the Traitor.
What’s stuck with me most from that book is Oleg’s courage and moral clarity, two things our world will need as defence industries help governments everywhere re-arm — our lead today.
Huge protests after Istanbul mayor’s arrest.
A Turkish court has formally arrested Istanbul mayor and President Erdogan’s top rival Ekrem İmamoğlu, triggering protests across the country. Authorities have also blocked opposition social media accounts, and banned short-selling as markets wobble.
Israel-Gaza updates.
The Israeli cabinet has started a process to oust the attorney-general over “substantial differences”, in a move she’s rejected as political. Meanwhile, an Israeli strike on a hospital in Gaza has reportedly killed a Hamas leader undergoing treatment, with local authorities reporting bystanders were also injured.
Carney calls Canadian snap election.
As expected, newly inaugurated leader Mark Carney has called a snap election for 28 April, warning that Canada now faces “the most significant crisis of our lifetime”.
US-Russia talks resume.
US and Russian officials have restarted peace talks in Saudi Arabia today (Monday), days after Putin rejected Trump’s proposed immediate and unconditional 30-day ceasefire. Ukraine described its own latest talks with the US overnight as “productive”.
US officials visit Greenland.
A delegation including the second lady (Usha Vance) and national security advisor (Mike Waltz) will visit Greenland on Thursday. While there’s no mention of President Trump’s plans for the territory, Greenlandic leader Mute Egede asked, “what is the security adviser doing in Greenland? The only purpose is to show a demonstration of power to us.”
South Korean court reinstates PM.
A court has reinstated Prime Minister Han Duck-soo as South Korea’s acting president after overturning his impeachment. The court hasn’t yet decided the fate of the president.
A virtual briefing with Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir
What’s it like to be a NATO ally with no military?
As a former foreign minister, Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir has navigated Iceland’s place in an increasingly turbulent world — standing firm on security, energy, and economic resilience while leading Icelandic diplomacy through some of the biggest global shifts in recent history.
Join us live for an unfiltered conversation where she’ll share insights from the frontlines of diplomacy, the tough calls she’s had to make, and what smaller nations can teach the world about influence, strategy, and resilience. It’s online this Friday, 9.30am ET.
TOP STORY
The defence industry in four numbers
Rheinmetall’s latest main battle tank, the Panther KF51. Credits: Rheinmetall.
There are all kinds of wild metrics to help track international security — take the famous Pentagon Pizza Index, which monitors spikes in Domino’s and Papa John’s orders as a proxy for Pentagon folks pulling late nighters when something is brewing.
Well, here are four less tasty but equally intriguing numbers Intriguers should know:
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🇪🇺 116%
That’s how far stocks in Germany's arms-maker Rheinmetall have soared just this year — a doubling in 11 weeks, and a 12-fold rise since early 2022.
It’s all due, of course, not just to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, but also the seeming US de-prioritisation of Europe's defence, jolting the continent’s capitals into some historic moves like Germany's easing of its constitutional debt brake.
And that’s enough to trigger talk of an EU defence sector supercycle, with spill-overs into supplying sectors (like energy, chemicals) and other markets (like Korea, where Hanwa has also doubled its market cap as it signs deals with Poland and Romania).
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🇺🇸 10%
That's how far down America's Lockheed Martin is this year. Why?
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Trump remains wary of US security support for allies
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The Pentagon is also in the midst of a cost-cutting drive, and
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European and other capitals therefore want to limit any over-reliance on the US.
And that’s all while Lockheed has issued statements denying rumours of any 'kill switch' allowing the US to disable allied F-35 fighter jets. The need to even dispel such a rumour still highlights a) the platform's dependence on US support, and b) wobbling allied trust in that support (both Canada and Portugal have voiced F-35 doubts just this month).
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🎖️ 11%
That's how much Boeing's stock has jumped since Friday. Why? President Trump just announced Boeing has won a $20B contract to develop the Air Force's next 6th-generation F-47 fighter jet (rival Lockheed missed out, and its shares dropped 5%).
Trump said "an experimental version of the plane has secretly been flying for almost five years and we're confident that it massively overpowers the capabilities of any other nation."
But of course, it's one thing to announce, and another thing to do. And that’s the challenge for Boeing, which is still dealing with multiple over-runs and missteps.
Still, Trump's not shy about his reasons, including…
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🇨🇳 36
The J-36 is China's own presumed sixth-generation jet, which mysteriously appeared over Chengdu last week. Beijing has gone to extraordinary lengths to maintain its secrecy, including via vast blimp hangars plus new laws prohibiting hobbyists from uploading pics.
So to then casually fly this jet over a city of 21 million people, the same week the US announces its own sixth-gen plans? It has the hallmarks of a controlled release.
As for what we know? While China’s J-36 has an intriguing design (no tail), three engines (extra thrust), and advanced stealth features, there's still a heated and nerdy debate around whether this is really another Sputnik moment for the US, or just a flying chassis.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Lord Ismay, NATO’s first secretary general, famously quipped that the alliance’s purpose was to keep the Americans in, the Russians out, and the Germans down. And the above numbers are a reminder we might now be witnessing the opposite: the Russians are back in, the Americans want out, so the Germans are stepping back up.
And while there’s been some gloom in Western media circles around the willingness or ability of Europe to fill any US void, things are moving. Rheinmetall's CEO recently mentioned his firm is now single-handedly producing more artillery shells than the entire US. That’s presumably why Russian intelligence has tried to assassinate him.
Anyway, the other big trend here is in markets, with defence contractors now offering rare upward arrows on charts otherwise splashed red with tariffs and trade tensions. Double your money in 11 weeks? That’s crypto territory. And it’s triggering a shift in investor sentiment, with more managers quietly re-defining (or scrapping) ESG rules.
Sure, it’s partly out of pressure from investors experiencing FOMO; but it’s also partly a reflection of citizens re-evaluating their definition of good, to include a free world that can defend itself and its principles. Still, that’s never a simple nor easy shift to navigate.
Also worth noting:
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The euro has strengthened by 7% against the US dollar since its low in January as markets become more optimistic that Europe can address its defence, infrastructure, and other investment gaps.
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In a sign of the times, Rheinmetall (which was a state-owned firm during WWII) just overtook the beleaguered Volkswagen in market cap, and the two are in talks about Rheinmetall potentially repurposing VW auto-plants to make arms.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Security forces have reported another deadly border skirmish with the Pakistani Taliban. It comes just as Pakistan’s top envoy for Afghanistan is in Kabul to pressure the ruling Taliban to rein in armed groups along their shared border.
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🇻🇦 Vatican City: Pope Francis made his first appearance yesterday (Sunday), 38 days after first entering hospital with severe pneumonia. Doctors say the pontiff (88) will need to relearn how to speak, plus at least two more months of rest, fuelling speculation around his succession planning.
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🇭🇰 Hong Kong: Hong Kong is mulling tweaks to its transportation laws to allow for rescue, delivery, and even passenger drones across the territory. The city’s secretary for transport announced the plans over the weekend, with 30 trial projects set to help develop the “low-altitude economy”.
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🇯🇲 Jamaica: A debate over the meaning of ‘Jamaican rum’ is raging after a local spirits group pushed to exclude overseas-aged rum from the definition. A major local French-owned producer is challenging the new rules, as its business model relies heavily on exporting the good stuff abroad then ageing it in bulk.
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🇿🇦 South Africa: Hundreds have greeted South Africa’s (ex)ambassador to the US upon his landing back in Cape Town after last week’s US expulsion. While vowing to wear his US sanction as a “badge of dignity”, he says it’s important for South Africa to mend its ties with the US.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A school in Italy has a cat serving as vice principal — he’s named Silvio, in case you were curious.
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Folks in Vietnam have stopped buying a wildly popular children’s doll after netizens pointed out its face marking resembles China’s nine-dash line.
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Glenrothes in Scotland is selling a $50k single-malt requiring you to smash the bottle’s protective shell with a purpose-built hammer to get the whisky.
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A football club in Bulgaria has had to apologise after holding a minute’s silence for a player who is still very much still alive.
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And local security guards have commended a German tourist’s “good physical condition” after he evaded them and managed to scale a Mayan temple in Mexico.
MEAL OF THE DAY
Credits: Wendy’s First Kitchen.
One of the fun things about Intrigue’s community is that, no matter the day’s topic, there’s a solid chance one of you is out there living and breathing it. Or eating it. Last time we featured an unorthodox new mayonnaise beverage launched across Japan — yep, a member of our exclusive WhatsApp group (which you can join by referring five friends using your unique referral link below) was conducting a taste-test within 24 hours.
Anyway… it’s with that in mind that we mention a new local Japanese offering from Wendy’s (the American fast food chain) known as the Takoyaki Burger (🇯🇵). It’s literally takoyaki (Japan’s beloved ball-shaped street food stuffed with octopus and tempura scraps). And they’ve literally jammed three of them into a burger.
Wendy’s has released this in the lead up to the Osaka-Kansai Expo, which kicks off next month. Any Intriguers in Japan? You know what to do…
DAILY POLL
If your government had extra funds, where would you want them invested? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think intelligence agencies should release unredacted documents?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👓 Yes, full transparency is best (12%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🕰️ Yes, but only after several years (38%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ✖️ No, they put lives and missions at risk (48%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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✖️ H.O: “Releasing the social security numbers and home addresses and phone numbers of individuals who have participated in official government work does not serve any public interest.”
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🕰️ K.P.M: “There comes a time when withholding them becomes counterproductive. Of course, identifying that time is problematic.”
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👓 J.C: “After national security and personnel security issues are addressed. The government should be ‘of the people, for the people’. That literally means citizens should know what our government is doing on our behalf.”
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✍️ U.E: “Maybe, then, the right thing to do for intelligence agencies would be to not meddle with investigations and media coverage in the first place…”
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