🌍 The elections shaking up Eastern Europe

Hi there Intriguer. You’d think taking a bullet train doing 320km/h would be exhilarating enough, but not in Japan. Folks there decided to jazz things up a little by hosting a live professional wrestling bout in a bullet train’s narrow aisle (while at full speed).

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• ⚡ What Eastern Europe’s election season means for Ukraine.

• 🇸🇾 Syria’s Assad touches down in China.

• ➕ Plus: Police pups in Chile, how the papers are covering the possible arrest of South Korea’s opposition leader, and raising an orphaned elephant in India.

⏱️ Around the world in sixty seconds

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: Seoul has hit North Korea with fresh sanctions targeting any illegal arms trading with Russia. Speaking at the UN, South Korean President Yoon warned that any such Moscow-Pyongyang deal would be a “direct provocation” against his country.

2. 🇬🇧 UK: King Charles wraps up his first state visit to France today (Friday). The monarch’s visit is part of a wider charm offensive to repair Franco-British ties strained by issues like AUKUS and Brexit.

3. 🇮🇩 Indonesia: Parliament has approved President Widodo’s $216B budget for 2024, aimed at supporting economic growth while stabilising prices. The 2024 budget is 64.5% bigger than this year’s.

4. 🇭🇹 Haiti: The country’s most powerful gang leader has called for the armed overthrow of Prime Minister Ariel Henry. Much of the country’s capital is under the control of criminal gangs.

5. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) has warned that if Iran were to obtain a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia would push to acquire one too. The kingdom remains in talks with the US about acquiring a civilian nuclear capability.

 ⚡ Eastern Europe | Geopolitics

What’s up with Ukraine and Eastern Europe?

If you were surprised after hearing this week that Poland is “no longer transferring weapons to Ukraine”, you’re not alone.

Here’s what happened. Responding to Russia’s naval blockade, Ukraine has exported more cheap grain via Europe, competing with local farmers there. So Poland has led a group (including Hungary and Slovakia) to impose their own curbs on Ukrainian imports, prompting a Ukrainian lawsuit at the WTO.

Explaining the move, Polish President Duda said Ukraine’s fight for survival was like a “drowning person” pulling rescuers underwater. In turn, Ukrainian President Zelensky argued these countries were effectively helping Russia.

Later that night (Wednesday), Poland’s PM said it was no longer supplying arms to Ukraine, in remarks President Duda later said were misinterpreted.

This drama has all felt a tad unexpected from Poland, where Russia-scepticism runs high; leaders make regular visits to Kyiv; folks have taken in millions of Ukrainian refugees; and NATO runs a vast hub supplying Ukraine.

So what’s going on? Poland’s ruling Law & Justice Party (PiS) faces tough elections next month, so it’s pivoting to shore up support with:

• 🌾 some rural voters losing income to Ukrainian grain, and

• 😐 some euro-sceptic voters calling for a domestic re-focus.

Polling suggests the PiS may not win enough votes to hold power on its own, so a coalition government could emerge, embedding this recent pivot.

Intrigue’s take: There are two high-wire balancing acts on display here. The first is in Poland, where a clear majority still backs Ukraine, but specific issues (like grain, refugees, the economy) are contributing to voter fatigue.

The second is in Ukraine, where Zelensky needs to keep getting grain out and arms in, but the vigorous pursuit of both interests can risk political headaches for the leaders making it happen.

This week’s events show how hard it is for both sides to nail that balance.

Also worth noting:

• Croatia says it’s considering imposing an import ban on Ukrainian grain. It’s due for elections next year.

• The current frontrunner in Slovakia’s 30 September election has long campaigned for a halt to Slovakia’s weapons shipments to Ukraine, and does not support sanctions against Russia.

📰 How newspapers covered…

South Korea’s parliament passing a motion allowing for the arrest of the opposition leader on corruption charges

*The opposition leader has been on a weeks-long hunger strike protesting various government policies

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🇸🇾 Syria | Geopolitics

Assad gets the red carpet in China

Syrian leader Bashar Al-Assad touched down in China’s eastern city of Hangzhou yesterday (Thursday), arriving on an Air China charter along a China-friendly flight route. It’s his first visit to the country since 2004.

What’s Assad doing there? His objective is to:

• Rebuild his own legitimacy, with the help of a few photos alongside President Xi and other leaders at the Asian Games, and

• Rebuild his war-torn country, where an economic crisis has recently triggered rare anti-Assad protests in his stronghold cities.

And why would China host Assad, who still faces war crime allegations?

• The Arab League already readmitted him in May after a decade of atrocity-related isolation, cutting the reputational costs for China to follow suit, and

• Hosting Assad plays to China’s self-image in the region as a peacemaker, versus the image it projects of the US as a meddler.

Intrigue’s take: It’s hard to see China investing in Syria again any time soon. Its earlier investors already took a hit when the civil war erupted, and another $2B pledge from 2017 still hasn’t appeared. The insecurity and far-reaching US sanctions just make the costs too high.

But in the meantime, photo ops seem to serve both leaders’ aims.

Also worth noting:

• China and Russia have vetoed eight UN Security Council resolutions against Syria, generally on the grounds that the resolutions interfered in Syria’s internal affairs and violated its sovereignty.

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Don’t miss these behind-the-scenes highlights from our week at the UN

➕ Extra Intrigue

Some weekend suggestions from Team Intrigue. If you have:

• 3-36 mins: Have a listen to this album by Blick Bassy, a Cameroonian artist who sings in his mother tongue (Bassa).

• 40 mins: Check out this short documentary about a couple in South India struggling to raise an orphaned elephant.

• 45 mins: Unleash your inner Carmy Berzatto and try cooking this Tom Kah Gai soup.

📸 Photo of the day

Chile celebrated Independence Day this week, marking its declaration of independence from Spain in 1810. The stars of the show were these puppies in backpacks, taking a break from police dog training to join their handlers in the parade.

🗳️ Quiz time!

Solidarity, the Polish trade union that became a hotbed of anti-Soviet resistance, was formally founded on this day in 1980. So here’s some Poland trivia!

Quiz answers: 1-b; 2-b; 3-c