🌍 The EU and Tunisia sign migration pact

Hi there Intriguer. Everyone loves a rescue story, and it’s tough to beat this one: a decade ago, a Salvadoran fisherman went missing off the coast of Mexico. 14 months later, he washed up on the other side of the Pacific, having survived off raw fish and rainwater. But the world record goes to a Japanese captain who disappeared off the coast of Japan in 1813, and was found 16 months later near California.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🇹🇳 The EU and Tunisia sign a major migration pact.

• 🇲🇱 Why Mali is ending up with sensitive US information.

• ➕ Plus: Spain is gearing up to vote, how the papers are covering the runup to Cambodia’s general election, and why the Oppenheimer film could be a warning for Silicon Valley.

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: At least 41 people have died following massive floods triggered by heavy monsoon rains. President Yoon says he’ll overhaul the country's approach to extreme weather, adding "we must accept climate change is happening, and deal with it".

2. 🇷🇺 Russia: Moscow has pulled out of the Black Sea grain deal that’s enabled Ukraine to keep supplying agricultural products to the world. In peacetime, Ukraine produced enough food exports to feed around 400 million people.

3. 🇮🇳 India: Fast food chain McDonald's has dropped tomatoes from its menu in northern and eastern India after tomato prices quadrupled there in a couple of weeks. Bad weather and a mismatch between supply and demand are to blame for the shortages.

4. 🇬🇹 Guatemala: Chaos has gripped Guatemalan politics after the country’s attorney-general, accused of corruption by the US last year, announced the suspension of a leading opposition party ahead of August’s runoff election.

5. 🇮🇷 Iran: The morality police will resume patrols to enforce Iran’s strict modesty laws, 10 months after widespread protests rocked the regime. Women seen not wearing a head veil in public risk being arrested and taken to ‘re-education facilities’ run by the police.

🇹🇳 Tunisia | Migration

Tunisia and EU ink billion dollar migration deal

After months of speculation, Tunisia and the EU have finalised a deal to try and stem irregular migration from northern Africa. The negotiations culminated in a slightly awkward 4-way handshake between the leaders of Tunisia, Italy, the Netherlands, and the European Commission on Sunday.

Boat departures from Tunisia to Europe have spiked in recent months, with some estimating 3,000 folks are embarking on the journey each day.

So this deal seeks to respond with a package of five ‘pillars’:

• 🧑‍🎓 Opening more programs for Tunisian students

• 💰 Up to ~$1.1B in budget support for Tunisia (T&Cs apply)

• 🚢 Activities to boost trade and investment with Tunisia, and

• 🔋 Assistance for Tunisia’s green energy transition.

That’s four non-migration pillars, really all in Tunisia’s favour.

So what’s the 5th pillar the EU gets in return?

• 🧑‍🤝‍🧑 More Tunisian cooperation on border control, anti-smuggling, and return operations, with ~$112M in EU funding.

Intrigue's take: Tunis needs this injection of euros to stabilise its free-falling economy, and Brussels probably needs Tunisia’s help to manage EU borders.

But while the ink on the deal is barely dry, you can imagine the questions folks are asking around Tunisia’s human rights record, the president’s authoritarian streak, and the sheer volume of euros on offer.

The EU leader didn’t take media questions on Sunday, but we can imagine her answers: on this issue at least, it seems the ends justify the means.

Also worth noting:

• €900M of the EU’s pledged budget support will depend on an IMF bailout which Tunisia just rejected due to the IMF’s “diktats”.

• A UN body issued a rebuke after Tunisian President Saied’s comments about “hordes of illegal migrants” earlier this year.

• In March, Europe’s parliament criticised Tunisia’s ongoing crackdown on civil society.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The run-up to this month’s Cambodian election

Today’s newsletter is supported by: Care.com

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🇲🇱 Mali | Intelligence & security

The US has accidentally been leaking info to Mali for a decade

A simple typo has resulted in millions of sensitive US military emails ending up in Mali, according to The Financial Times.

How?

For a decade, many US military folks intending to send emails to .mil addresses (the suffix for the US military) have accidentally sent them to .ml, the suffix for Mali. And until yesterday (Monday), Mali’s .ml domain was managed by a Dutch consultant, who tried to warn the Pentagon.

But now that Russia-aligned Mali has resumed control of the .ml domain again, it potentially has access to information like:

• 📜 Staffing lists at US bases

• 🎖️ The travel plans for the US Army’s highest-ranking officer, and

• ✈️ Even corrosion problems impacting Australian F-35s.

Intrigue’s take: We didn’t need a reminder, but we got one anyway: national security systems can actually be pretty fragile, because ultimately they’re made up of people. And people make mistakes. Big ones.

Also worth noting:

• Reportedly, none of the information sent to Mali was classified (such info is typically sent through separate encrypted systems).

• Unclassified info can still offer valuable insights to an adversary.

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Why is Russia pulling out of the Black Sea Grain Deal with Ukraine?

➕ Extra Intrigue

We’re very online, so you don’t have to be.

• Can the US and China cooperate on climate?

• Finding dry land in Kherson

• Why are Georgian politicians going after gay rights?

• ‘Oppenheimer’ is a warning for Silicon Valley

• Cameroon’s divisions could turn dangerous

🗳️ Poll time!

And finally, a special poll for our podcast listeners!

We’ll be running our female greatest-of-all-time poll next 🙂

📊 Chart of the day

Spaniards will head to the polls this Sunday after Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez called a snap election. It’s looking like a possible win for the centre-right opposition People’s Party, with Sánchez’s incumbent Socialist Party trailing. But either way, the polls suggest a coalition government will emerge.

Yesterday’s poll: If you were the leader of your own imaginary country, which world power would you want on your side, and why?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🇺🇸 US (65%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇨🇳 China (9%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇬🇧 UK (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇮🇳 India (5%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇫🇷 France (2%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇹🇷 Turkey (1%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇧🇷 Brazil (0.4%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇩🇪 Germany (9%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇯🇵 Japan (3%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🇺🇸 S: “We (the US) are powerful and somewhat chaotic. I'm not saying we make great allies, but I think we'd make extremely stressful adversaries.”

• 🇮🇳 A.G: “I would definitely go with India. Population increment, high technology development (even space development), south-south cooperation, and leaders of relevant global south needs. I mean, why not?”

• 🇧🇷 J.S: “Future relies on material resources and big, unified countries to make agile decisions.”

• ✍️ M.M: “It's too hard to choose in a vacuum, would depend on where my country is located, what its political system is, what drives its economy, what its security capability is etc.”