Plus: Embassy of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 4 intriguing lines from the Ukraine peace summit |
2️⃣ A leopard gate-crashing an inauguration? |
3️⃣ Embassy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Do you ever watch those reality dating shows? No? Well you’re kind of leaving me hanging here, but I’m gonna have to press on with this analogy anyway:
Sometimes, when the cameras are rolling and a contestant is pressed to declare their true feelings, they’ll come up with the vaguest possible statement just to keep everyone happy. So instead of saying “I love you”, they might declare “I can maybe see myself, um, starting to develop feelings for you”.
Well believe it or not, diplomacy is kinda similar. I’ve spent months of my life coming up with different ways to re-shape and water-down the same basic point, all in the hopes it might get a nod from governments abroad.
And yes, there was some of that on display at this weekend’s Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland, but as today’s briefing explores, the final statement still got 80+ countries to endorse some pretty blunt messaging on Russia.
Netanyahu disbands war cabinet.
Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has reportedly just disbanded his war cabinet, a week after opposition figure Benny Gantz announced his withdrawal. Netanyahu formed the unity cabinet five days after the October Hamas attacks on Israel; he’ll now likely continue war consultations with a small group of his ministers including the defence minister, Yoav Gallant. Details are still emerging.
EU leaders to vote on EU Commission president.
The leaders from the EU’s 27 member states are poised to select the next EU chief at a dinner summit in Brussels tonight (Monday). Current Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is expected to get the nod for another 5-year term, though there are no guarantees, and she’ll still need the European Parliament’s majority support.
China launches anti-dumping probe on EU pork.
The EU expected retaliation after it raised tariffs on China-made EVs by up to 38% last week. But why pork? Well, China is the EU’s biggest overseas market for pork, worth $3B last year. Plus, as recent protests suggest, anything that pressures the EU’s farmers will also end up pressuring the EU’s leaders.
China offers Australians visa-free travel.
China’s premier Li Qiang offered the perk, already enjoyed by New Zealand and several European nations, during a meeting with the prime minister of Australia, Anthony Albanese. The two leaders also pledged to improve communications between their militaries to avoid incidents.
Singapore races to clean up oil spill.
A dredging boat crashed into a Singaporean oil tanker moored just offshore on Friday, spilling 400 tonnes of oil into the sea. Authorities have since closed some of Singapore’s ritzy southern beaches due to health concerns.
TOP STORY
The four most intriguing lines from Switzerland’s ‘Summit on Peace in Ukraine’
~100 countries attended the weekend’s Ukraine peace summit in Switzerland. Credits: @karlnehammer (Twitter/X)
Around 100 countries wrapped up the two-day 'Summit on Peace in Ukraine' in the Swiss ski resort of Bürgenstock yesterday (Sunday).
High above Lake Lucerne, leaders gathered from every region, whether Macron 🇫🇷 and Meloni 🇮🇹 from Europe, Boric 🇨🇱 and Milei 🇦🇷 from Latin America, Ruto 🇰🇪 and Akufo-Addo 🇬🇭 from Africa, al-Menfi 🇱🇾 and al-Thani 🇶🇦 from the Middle East, or Kishida 🇯🇵 and Gusmao 🇹🇱 from the Asia-Pacific.
Coming after several delays, the timing was interesting, too: the Swiss hosted it (at Ukraine's request) hours after the G7 summit wrapped in Italy, and ahead of major NATO and EU summits next month – the idea being to maximise attendance and sustain momentum among Ukraine’s closest partners.
So here are the summit’s four most intriguing quotes, and why.
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“We have half the UN here, while Putin is preparing for a state visit to North Korea" – The outgoing Dutch PM, Mark Rutte
This little zinger gets at the fact that, in any international summit, success often rests as much on who turns up as it does on what they say. In this case, the Russians – who've described the process as "pointless" – weren't invited, a fact Putin's partners in China cited in their own decision to skip the gathering.
So the Ukrainians pushed hard to drive numbers up and isolate Putin, while Russia (with an assist from China) reportedly did the opposite.
In the end, ~100 out of the 160 invitees attended, including (at a lower level) Russia’s fellow BRICS countries of Brazil, India, and South Africa. That made it the biggest international gathering on Ukraine since Russia launched its full invasion.
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“We must speak truth: Putin is not calling for negotiations, he is calling for surrender” – Vice president of the US, Kamala Harris
Harris was referring here to Putin's latest demands, which he lobbed into the fray just as leaders started arriving in Switzerland. He called for Ukraine to: a) abandon its plans to join NATO, and b) withdraw troops from four Ukrainian regions that Russia claims to have annexed (though hasn't managed to capture).
Meanwhile, The New York Times published new details on the 2022 Russia-Ukraine talks from the early days of the invasion: contrary to Putin’s claims, the paper trail suggests those talks collapsed after a) Russia insisted on a veto over any aid to Ukraine, and b) evidence emerged of Russia's atrocities in Bucha.
So the US vice president was one of various leaders this weekend who questioned whether any government would accept Putin’s terms.
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"The crucial takeaway is that we’ve all come here, that we’re talking" – Chancellor of Austria, Karl Nehammer
So what exactly did they all say? Some 80 countries ended up joining the Bürgenstock Communiqué (not to be confused with the Birkenstock Communiqué), which sought the broadest endorsement by highlighting the most agreeable themes:
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Food security (Ukraine is a major grain exporter),
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Nuclear safety (Russia still occupies a major Ukrainian nuclear site), and
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Detainees (Russia has taken thousands of Ukrainian children).
The statement also reaffirms Ukraine's "territorial integrity" and condemns Russia's nuclear threats as "inadmissible", while noting that peace will ultimately require "dialogue between all parties" (ie, Russia too).
And what didn't they say? The Communiqué avoids some of the pointier points in Ukraine's 2022 ten-point peace plan, like directly calling on Russia to return to its own borders, pay compensation, or face prosecution for war crimes.
And who didn’t sign it? While some relatively Russia-friendly players (like Hungary, Qatar, Serbia, and Turkey) got on board, others (like Brazil, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Thailand, and the UAE) stayed out of it.
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"The road ahead is long and challenging" – President of Switzerland, Viola Amherd
The idea now is for officials to flesh out the statement's three key themes above, before presenting Russia with a more detailed proposal at a follow-up summit. But nobody seems to have put their hand up to host such a summit yet, and others like China and Brazil are pushing their own alternative processes.
In the meantime, the war rages on: Russia's renewed offensive looks to be petering out after shifting the front-lines around 19km (12 mi).
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
If so many leaders agreed that "no country would ever accept" Putin's terms, then why’d he announce them? He probably saw his last-minute intervention as a way to wrong-foot his rivals, nourish the "peace-at-any-cost" voices in the West, and thereby erode or confuse Western support for Ukraine.
And then… what's the point of hosting a peace summit without Russia? From Ukraine's perspective:
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It got the backing of some of the world's smallest and poorest countries, undermining Russian claims to their solidarity
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It also showcased Ukraine’s backing from some of the world’s most powerful countries, including most of the West
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It got backing from right across the political spectrum – whether from Timor’s former guerrilla or Argentina’s firebrand libertarian – potentially detaching Russia's invasion from party politics
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And it tied Ukraine’s fate to universal interests like food, children, and nukes, so…
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It refocused a distracted world back on Russia’s ongoing invasion.
But then… why did Brazil, India, and others abstain? They see a multipolar world ahead and want to preserve their room to manoeuvre. But in the meantime, they also want to balance independence against irrelevance. So for them, the sweet spot was to turn up, but lay low.
Also worth noting:
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The US announced $1.5B in energy sector and humanitarian support for Ukraine at the summit.
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Ambassadors from the EU’s 27 member states “agreed in principle” on Friday to begin Ukraine’s accession talks later this month, though there’s speculation Hungary could (again) block consensus.
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Also on Friday, the G7 leaders reiterated they’ll support Ukraine’s defence “for as long as it takes", while announcing a $50B package financed largely from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇮🇳 India: South Korean automaker Hyundai has submitted paperwork to list its Indian subsidiary on India’s stock market. If accepted, Hyundai’s IPO would be one of India’s biggest-ever, and the first for an automaker in India since Maruti Suzuki’s 2003 offering.
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🇫🇷 France: While not expressly condemning or supporting any party in France’s upcoming elections, football star Kylian Mbappé has declared himself “against extremes and divisive ideas”. Urging young voters to vote, he also defended comments by a team-mate who had urged folks to stop the nationalist-populist National Rally from winning.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: Manila has asked a UN body to confirm its own vast undersea shelf in the South China Sea, pushing back on China’s claim to 90% of the region. Meanwhile, tensions have flared again after Chinese and Philippine ships collided near a contested reef earlier today.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: Several aides to president-elect Claudia Sheinbaum have been injured – and one has died – in a highway accident. Sheinbaum wasn’t in the vehicle, though it happened in Coahuila, where she was due to accompany the outgoing president on her first post-election tour.
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🇮🇷 Iran: Swedish authorities have freed a former Iranian official convicted for his role in a mass execution of political prisoners in 1988, as part of a deal for Iran to free two Swedish citizens. Oman mediated the deal, which resulted in the release of Johan Floderus, a Swedish EU official detained in Iran since 2022.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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A military history buff in China has reportedly bought four books containing China’s military secrets for less than $1 at his neighbourhood recycling centre.
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Danish authorities have recalled three South Korean ramen products for being so spicy that they posed a risk to consumers.
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A prestigious AI-generated photo contest has disqualified a German photographer after it emerged his winning entry was actually real.
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Social media users in India claim the large feline seen walking behind Prime Minister Modi during his swearing-in ceremony last week was a leopard, leading Delhi police to issue an official denial.
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And a university in Vermont has awarded a much-loved local cat a doctorate degree in (ahem) “litter-ature”.
EMBASSY OF THE DAY
Credits: Khoo Guo Jie.
Switzerland just spent 2.5 years spiffing up its 40-year-old embassy in Singapore, and the results – revealed a few weeks ago – are pretty, pretty, pretty good.
The architect’s brief was apparently to highlight the Swiss values of “openness and transparency” – that’d explain the vast windows looking out onto the city-state’s largest green area. The Swiss also wanted to project an identity of “modernisation and sustainability”, so they opted for natural materials like wood and stone, while caking the roof with solar panels.
The result? According to the ambassador himself, the diplomatic post “blends the charm of traditional Singapore architecture with Swiss design and quality”.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about the decision not to invite Russia to the Ukraine peace summit? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What do you think is the biggest risk ahead for global brands?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🏗️ Supply chain logistics (32%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⛔ Supply chain ethics (11%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🔥 Conflict (22%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 🏛️ Government decisions (25%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🌿 Environment (8%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🏗️ B.D: “Companies that rely on complex supply chains (especially Persian Gulf + South China Sea) are going to be in a tough spot.”
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🔥 M.A: “Conflict spills over many of the other issues, and it isn't something you can solve by throwing money at it and hiring consultants.”
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🏛️ M.S: “Government decisions can be – and often are – the upstream root cause of the other risks.”
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✍️ M.R: “While logistics and governmental decisions are issues, local attitudes and tastes that don't mesh with the global brands' approach will continue to plague the multi-nationals.”
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✍️ Corrections corner
Our thanks to Jonathan from Germany who wrote in after last week’s briefing on France and the European Parliament elections, pointing out that Germany’s AfD party came second to another opposition party, not Germany’s ruling coalition. Thanks Jonathan!