Plus: Tweet of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 4 things embassies are saying about Biden’s withdrawal |
2️⃣ A new billionaire king in Malaysia |
3️⃣ Tweet of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Last week kicked off with a US assassination attempt, and limped to Friday with the world’s biggest-ever IT meltdown, but then it thought… you know what? Let’s cram some more spice into this thing.
Let’s add a dash of Covid, sprinkle in the latest-ever withdrawal of a sitting president, bring to a simmer with Trump as the oldest-ever candidate to run for president, and then just deep fry the whole darn burrito, producing the first White House race since 1976 without a Bush, Clinton, or Biden on a ticket.
As I re-read all that, I can’t help but feel a bit dizzy from all the mixed metaphors, a bit of indigestion from all the culinary references, and also a drop (just a drop!) of self-satisfaction, knowing readers of Intrigue (including John and Kristen’s weekly US election edition) will have seen this coming.
As for what comes next? 175 foreign embassies in DC will be briefing their home governments on that very question right now, and today’s edition brings you all the way into the loop.
ICJ advisory opinion finds Israeli settlements unlawful.
The International Court of Justice (ICJ) delivered an advisory opinion on Friday, stating that “Israeli settlements in the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and the regime associated with them, have been established and are being maintained in violation of international law”. The non-binding findings also called on Israel to withdraw from the settlements and pay reparations. The Palestinian Authority in the West Bank and Hamas officials in Qatar have welcomed the advisory opinion, while Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said "the Jewish nation cannot be an occupier in its own land".
Long-time Vietnam leader dies.
Nguyen Phu Trong, aged 80, died on Friday “after a period of illness". He had just stepped back from political life and handed over duties to President To Lam. Trong’s death is a big deal – he was one of Vietnam’s most powerful leaders in decades, and a true believer in its Communist Party which he led for a rare three terms from 2011. He also doubled as president between 2018 and 2021.
Did China and the Philippines reach a South China Sea deal?
The Philippines said it “reached an understanding” with China about the resupply of a grounded ship in Second Thomas Shoal at the heart of their ongoing territorial dispute. But maybe not? China insists the deal is contingent on the eventual removal of the Sierra Madre, while the Philippines now rejects an assertion that it would have to notify China of any resupply missions in advance.
China’s central bank cuts rates.
The People's Bank of China has cut a number of short-term interest rates in a surprise move earlier today (Monday). It comes just after last week’s Third Plenum, and amid reports the country fell short of its 5% growth target in Q2.
EU signs lithium deals with Serbia.
The agreements, signed on Friday, grant the EU and its carmakers exclusive access to Serbian lithium and pave the way for a massive and long-delayed lithium mine. While the deal is being touted as proof Serbia is pivoting West, the lithium deal still looks unpopular among locals.
TOP STORY
The four things embassies in DC are telling their home governments about Biden’s withdrawal
24 days after that debate, while recovering from Covid at his Delaware beach house, Joe Biden announced Sunday afternoon local time that he's withdrawing his 2024 candidacy to "focus solely on fulfilling” his duties as president.
He then endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, who in turn declared her intention to "earn and win" the Democratic Party's nomination.
And yet again, it’s left the ~175 embassies in DC scrambling to explain back home what's happening in the US, and what it means for the world.
But like we said last week, you don't need military-grade encryption-busting tools to know the four main things they're now cabling back to their capitals.
First, they’ll look at what this means in both a procedural and a political sense. Procedurally, Biden's party delegates will now be 'released' to back another candidate, opening up a few possibilities:
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There’s been talk of an early ‘virtual’ roll-call if consensus locks around Harris, leaving next month's party convention in Chicago to project unity.
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But some heavyweights (like Barack Obama) have withheld endorsement, and Harris could end up duking it out at an 'open convention' if a rival emerges. It'd be epic TV, though the last such season (1968) was a mess and the party lost the election.
Politically, meanwhile, initial fundraising, endorsements, and some polling all suggest Biden's withdrawal now energises his party, and drives a more competitive race focused on issues rather than infirmities.
Second, embassies will assure their governments that they're well prepared for what's next: any ambassador worth their Embassy Row residence should already have access to Harris, particularly via her inner circle (like Phil Gordon).
And yes, you can bet ambassadors in DC have been paying 'courtesy calls' on any other possible Harris rival, veep, or cabinet pick: Arizona Senator Mark Kelly, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear, North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper, Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, or Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer.
Third, as we noted last week, DC embassies will process this latest plot twist with a dash of wish-casting when it comes to the state of the US:
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US rivals will see it as further evidence of the chaos and even opacity at the heart of US power, but
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Allies will see it as evidence of continued US resilience and renewal.
Fourth and finally, embassies in DC will also be processing what all this means for their home governments and the world at large.
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Biden has (with a couple of exceptions) been popular among US allies, who’ll now cable what they can’t tweet: while they can work with any US president, a Harris presidency would bring continuity of Biden's vision for a preserved global US role built on strong alliances.
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As for US rivals? While they tisk at the chaos, they’ll be unsettled by the unpredictability, and nervous at the contrast between a Western leader ceding power while Presidents Xi and Putin (both 71) dig in. That might explain why China’s censors have blocked some analysis of Biden’s withdrawal, while the Kremlin has simply changed the topic.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Democracy can be such a tightrope, right?
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Trump wanted to beat Biden, not push him out of the race first
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Party heavyweights publicly backed Biden, though often seemingly to create space for him to exit (at their private urging), and
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Party voices now want unity around Harris, though many also crave the added legitimacy that’d come from a more contested process.
Likewise, foreign embassies are treading the tightrope of wanting to pre-empt where all this is headed, and maintain access no matter what the outcome, without being seen to interfere in that outcome.
As for next steps, you can bet MSNBC’s Morning Joe will get a serious ratings bump this morning (Monday). That’s because Andy Beshear, the popular governor of Kentucky and one of the above rumoured VPs for Harris (or a contender in his own right), dropped an intriguing tweet last night announcing his 8.10am appearance to “talk about the path forward”.
There’ll also be press packs chasing every move by Joe Manchin, the senator from West Virginia who’s reportedly now mulling his own possible candidacy.
So… you thought the last three weeks were eventful? Wait ‘til you see the next 15 weeks before election day.
Also worth noting:
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Kamala Harris had reportedly secured the backing of a quarter of all Democratic Party delegates by midnight, while the party raised ~$50M in seven hours, its biggest haul since at least 2020.
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Responding to Biden’s announcement, former president Trump has posted, “if [Biden] can’t run for office, he can’t run our country” (a call echoed by others in Trump’s party).
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Keen to dive deeper into the US elections, what they mean for the world, and vice versa? Our very own weekly Election Intrigue is free to subscribe!
LAST CHANCE TO REGISTER!
Join us this Wednesday, July 24th, 2024 at 6pm at the Embassy of Australia in Washington, DC
"How Internet Culture Shapes Our World: Memes, Deep Fakes, and Virality" will explore the impact of AI, viral content, and deep fakes on political discourse, public opinion, and global geopolitics. Gain insights from experts and practitioners on how these elements shape electoral landscapes and understand the technology and ethical implications behind them. Speakers include:
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Ginny Badanes, Microsoft’s Democracy Forward
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Ami Fields-Meyer, former senior advisor to Kamala Harris
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Helen Toner, Georgetown’s Centre for Security & Emerging Tech
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and more!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: President Ilham Aliyev has pledged to help French overseas territories like Comoros and Mayotte gain independence from Paris. Coming after last week’s hosting of various Pacific and Caribbean independence leaders, it’s all widely seen as a tit-for-tat response to French support for Azerbaijan’s rival and neighbour Armenia.
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🇵🇱 Poland: A domestic intelligence agency has found evidence a Polish state-owned company sold parts to an Iranian motor manufacturer that Iran subsequently used to make combat drones for Russia’s war against Ukraine. Polish ministers have called the allegations damaging to Warsaw’s credibility and vowed to toughen sanctions against Russia.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Local billionaire and sultan Ibrahim Iskandar was coronated as the country’s 17th king on Saturday, kicking off a five-year term under the country’s unique rotating monarchy. It’s a largely ceremonial role, though the king has been outspoken against corruption and local race issues, and is on good terms with Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: Brazil's sherpa (top official) for the G20 has announced there’s consensus on the key outcomes ahead of this week’s G20 finance meetings in Rio, after the group failed to produce a joint statement back in February. This latest breakthrough apparently came after G20 countries agreed to steer clear of “geopolitical language” in G20 texts.
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🇹🇳 Tunisia: A local court has sentenced opposition presidential candidate Lotfi Mraihi to eight months in prison and barred him from ever running again. He plans to appeal the move, which is on-brand for President Saied and comes ahead of the country’s October elections.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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The German navy is looking to get rid of the 8-inch floppy disks that are a vital part of its F123 frigate fleet.
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Homeowners in a Manchester skyscraper are protesting the construction of four other skyscrapers next door.
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An England football fan says he doesn’t regret getting ’England Euro 2024 winner’ tattooed on his body despite England ultimately losing to Spain.
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Florida’s zookeepers have taken to giving out large blocks of ice and frozen cow bones to keep animals cool over the summer.
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And a Tesla factory in Germany with 12,000 workers is somehow missing 65,000 coffee mugs.
TWEET OF THE DAY
Lithuania’s young foreign minister is an active and forceful presence on social media, routinely calling out Russian aggression and urging unified responses from the West. So it was a bit of a palate cleanser when he announced his foreign ministry had adopted this ultra-cute kitten named Rango! Lil’ Rango is just a Twitter account and 800K+ followers away from reaching the fame of Downing Street Number 10 cat, Larry.
DAILY POLL
What do you think Biden's withdrawal means for the race? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think joint military exercises are inherently aggressive?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤨 Yes, anything involving major military movements is suspicious (35%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🚢 No, they're routine (63%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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🤨 C.A: “Even ‘friends’ still compete.”
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🚢 S.S: “You don't want to wait until bullets are flying to figure out how to coordinate multinational forces.”
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✍️ C.B: “They clearly need the practice, as so much is theoretically strategized, and the reality of working in unity is quite different.”
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🚢 J.P: “The world is becoming more dangerous so the only way to keep the peace is to portray a stern reply to aggressive dictators.”
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