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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The Dalai Lama’s big news |
2️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend tips |
3️⃣ Wild stat of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Today’s briefing is a big finish to a bigger week, covering everything from Putin’s ceasefire duck-and-weave, to the Dalai Lama’s spicy new book, so I’ll keep my introduction crisp, my music recommendation hip (see below), and my cadence in threes.
THE HEADLINES
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Trump threatens 200% champagne tariffs.
The US president has threatened a 200% tariff on EU alcohol in response to the bloc’s plans for a 50% retaliatory tax on US whiskey (which itself is a response to Trump’s 25% steel and aluminium tariffs — still with us?).
Arrests made in EU parliament / Huawei bribery case.
Authorities across Belgium, France, and Portugal have conducted arrests and searches in relation to an alleged ‘cash for influence’ scheme in the EU parliament to benefit China’s tech giant, Huawei.
Syrian president approves transitional constitution.
Ahmed al-Sharaa has signed a constitutional declaration that’ll apply for five years as the country rebuilds. It includes the separation of powers, and guarantees women’s rights and freedom of expression, while also reiterating the role of Islam. Kurdish factions have criticised the document for not reflecting Syria’s diversity.
China and Russia back Iran on nuclear talks.
The trio have called for an end to unilateral sanctions and a more diplomatic approach to Iran’s nuclear program rather than what they describe as “pressure and threats”.
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Gold prices hit record high.
Gold hit another record high on Thursday, briefly passing $3,000 per ounce as investors continue to seek a safe haven.
IN THE LOOP: Russia-Ukraine
Putin and Zelensky addressed their respective countries on Thursday evening.
Here’s the latest:
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Ukraine agreed to a US-proposed 30-day ceasefire last week, but…
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While Putin has now said he supports the “idea” of a ceasefire, he wants it to eliminate the “root causes” of this conflict. And Intriguers will know his definition of “root causes” includes a sovereign Ukraine and an open NATO. This tactic allows Putin to appear flexible while continuing his war and milking concessions.
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So Ukraine’s Zelensky has used his nightly address to question “Putin’s very predictable, very manipulative words in response to the idea of a ceasefire”.
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And while President Trump told visiting NATO chief Mark Rutte that things are looking “very promising”, everyone’s now waiting for word on the meetings his envoy (Steve Witkoff) reportedly had in Moscow overnight.
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Meanwhile, there are reports Trump has now pressured Putin a little more to accept the ceasefire, including both by a) further strangling Russia’s access to cash (by allowing a key sanctions exemption to expire); and b) resuming and upgrading arms supplies to Ukraine, where rumours persist of another possible shot at destroying Russia’s bridge to occupied Crimea.
TOP STORY
The geopolitics of the next Dalai Lama
Will the real Dalai Lama please stand up?
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There’s nothing new about faith leaders holding political sway. But one such leader just caught our attention with his latest book published this week — specifically, the Dalai Lama mentions that his successor will be born outside China.
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First, a quick recap: the Dalai Lama (‘Ocean of Wisdom’) is the traditional religious and political leader of Tibetan Buddhism, which folks have been practicing across Tibet, Bhutan, Mongolia, and other parts of Central and Eastern Asia for more than a millennium.
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Recognised as the 14th Dalai Lama reincarnate at age two, the current leader assumed full political leadership of Tibet at age 15 in 1950, just after Mao’s China invaded. He went on to lead talks with Mao himself, but fled after Beijing’s subsequent brutal crackdown on the 1959 Tibetan uprising, and he’s been living next door in India ever since.
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China still describes the Dalai Lama as a ‘separatist in disguise’, and has long worked to undermine his influence at home and abroad. Eg:
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At home, Beijing bans photos of him and restricts Tibetan-language education, and
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Abroad, Beijing imposes costs on anyone meeting him — for example, it squeezed UC San Diego after the Dalai Lama delivered a commencement speech.
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But China’s strategy doesn’t just seek to cover the world — it also aims to cover the future:
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Back in 1995, China’s security forces seized a six-year-old boy who’d been recognised traditionally as the Panchen Lama — a top leader who’s key to identifying the next Dalai Lama. That little boy would now be aged ~35 today, though he’s not been seen in public since 1995, nobody knows where he is, and Beijing still claims he’s just living a “normal life” and doesn’t want to be disturbed.
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Meanwhile, Beijing keeps insisting that the next Tibetan spiritual leader will be a) born in China, and b) approved by Beijing.
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And that’s why the current Dalai Lama’s latest book is so spicy — he’s just made very clear, in writing, that his successor will be born elsewhere. He’s already 89, btw.
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So why are we writing about this?
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Despite the Communist Party’s efforts, the Dalai Lama still holds influence over Tibetans and Tibet itself, a strategic region with a history of impulses tugging towards self-rule.
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And whoever controls Tibet also controls…
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The world’s highest and largest plateau, perfect for pressing any military advantage over China’s giant neighbouring rival, India
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The so-called ‘water tower of Asia’, supplying around two billion people
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Renewable energy, including China’s plans for the world’s biggest dam, and
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Major mineral deposits like lithium, a key input for the energy transition.
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You could also see China’s seizure of Tibet as classic land-power strategy: establishing a sense of security at home by pacifying what you see as your periphery — it’s arguably what also drives Beijing’s approach in Xinjiang, Taiwan, and the South China Sea.
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And that’s all before we look at the implications for ties with India next door.
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The two rivals have held an awkward status quo on the Dalai Lama in part because they both at least recognise the same guy as Dalai Lama — and India reassures China that, while he’s free (and popular), he’s not allowed to engage in ‘anti-China activities’.
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But we’re now hurtling towards a situation in which two Dalai Lamas might emerge: one approved by Beijing, and the other quite possibly emerging in or relocating to India. And that raises all kinds of high-stakes questions:
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Which one (if any) will India recognise?
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What (if anything) does that mean for Tibet’s government-in-exile in India?
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And what might China do to force India’s hand one way or another?
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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Beijing’s paranoia here is partly about Tibet’s strategic value, partly about the Party’s focus on domestic stability, but also partly about US-China ties. That’s because China has long feared that the US is using Tibet as a way to weaken it, becoming increasingly irritated with each new US law on Tibet, whether…
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It also reflects the Party’s uneasy relationship with faith, which dovetails with its own ideology and has ebbed and flowed over the decades depending on China’s level of a) political anxiety, and b) broader religiosity. And while both are tough to measure in an opaque system, both have seemed to be rising in recent years: eg, by some estimates, China now has more Christians than members of the Communist Party (~100 million).
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Also worth noting:
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The CIA funded Tibetan insurgencies in the 1950s and 60s, though these efforts faded as US-China ties warmed from the 70s.
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China claims authority over the Dalai Lama selection process via an imperial ordinance from 1793, while critics note that this 1793 selection process has only ever been used a couple of times.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇬 Kyrgyzstan: Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have signed a historic deal this week, ending their long-standing 970 km (600 mile) border dispute. The two also agreed to reopen the road, rail, and air links they severed after border skirmishes erupted in 2022.
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🇦🇲 Armenia: Azerbaijan and Armenia have also agreed a settlement that could end nearly four decades of conflict over the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh (which Azerbaijan seized in 2023). The breakthrough involved agreeing to not deploy third country troops along their border, nor take action (including court cases) against the other.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: Kuala Lumpur has injected another $230M into its struggling petroleum giant Sapura, causing political pain for the prime minister. He’s previously criticised bail-outs, yet critics note the energy producer has received billions in government funding since 2018 without solving its financial problems.
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🇧🇴 Bolivia: Meanwhile, Bolivia’s state energy company will start paying for imports using cryptocurrency as the country faces another foreign reserves crisis. It’s tied to Bolivia’s dwindling gas exports, sparking a local fuel crisis that’s hit (for example) the ability of local farmers to harvest their crops.
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🇸🇾 Syria: Qatar has agreed to start supplying Syria with natural gas via Jordan in an attempt to alleviate local electricity shortages. Neighbouring Turkey has also floated the idea (including at CERAWeek attended by Intrigue) of linking its export terminals with Syria to supply energy.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigue’s weekend recommendations
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See some of the work by China’s Liu Jiakun, who won the 2025 Pritzker Architecture Prize earlier this month (it’s like the Nobel for architecture).
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Listen to the debut album from Ireland-born and Brooklyn-based drummer Estratos, promising to “take you to a different place for twenty minutes”.
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And visit any art museum or public garden (Swiss doctors have started prescribing it).
WILD STAT OF THE DAY
Credits: CSIS.
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If you’re wondering why the White House has announced a new ‘office of shipbuilding’, the above visual kinda sums it up: according to DC-based thinktank CSIS, China’s state-owned China State Shipbuilding Corporation (the world’s largest) built more commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than the entire US shipbuilding industry has built since the end of WWII!
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Extra intriguing fact: 75% of China’s state-owned corporation output goes to foreign buyers, including in Denmark, France, Qatar, and even Taiwan.
FRIDAY QUIZ
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It’s Pi Day, March 14!
Which scientist has their birthday on March 14? |
How many digits of Pi’s known 105 trillion does NASA use? |
When did the US Congress officially recognise Pi Day? |
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