🌍 The geopolitics of the Winter Games


🌍 The geopolitics of the Winter Games

Plus: Kenya just banned this Valentine's gift

Today’s briefing:
— The geopolitics of the Winter Games
— Tequila intrigue in Mexico
— Kenya just banned this Valentine’s gift

Good morning Intriguer. Please allow me to get sentimental for a sec. If there ever is a good reminder of our common humanity, surely it’s through sport. And for me, there’s no other global event more heartwarming than the Olympic Games.

I’ve been an Olympics nerd since Cool Runnings and absolutely love the spectacle of it all. From the torch relay celebs to the opening ceremonies, and all the geopolitical grudges played out on the podiums, there’s certainly no shortage of entertainment value (or armchair experts / commentators of niche Olympics sports) at each games.

Today’s top story looks at the Milan Winter Olympics, which officially kicks off this evening. Whatever your views might be of the games, it’s at least a good distraction from the rest of the 2026 world events.

Word of the day

‘SaaS-pocalypse’ 

That’s what they’re calling a sudden $300B SaaS market wipe-out, seemingly sparked by yet another Anthropic AI plug-in capable of replacing pricey enterprise software.

Game of geopolitics

Italy’s Winter Olympics opening ceremony kicks off in just a few hours, meaning we’ll soon burn our evenings watching snowboarders called ‘Tanner’ and ‘Yui’ pull sick Frontside Double Cork 1080 Lien-to-Melon Reverts.

But it also means that, as with any event bringing the world together, geopolitics is now in the air (doing a sick Frontside 720 Stale-Tail-to-Nosebone Re-entry).

Canada’s crack team of curlers has barely started buffing the ice yet, but you could already explore (say) the way Italy beat Sweden for the hosting rights, or how Russia has waged cyber attacks over its ban, or the continued protests against (and security for) Israel’s team, or the big ICE furore we examined last month.

So while we watch for the first stadium protest, here are five times geopolitics gatecrashed the Winter Games, starting with… 

  1. The ex-Olympian turned kingpin 

Former Olympians usually have three retirement options: become a coach, become a commentator, or become a spokesperson for Samsung.

But Canada’s Ryan Wedding, who came 24th in the 2002 Parallel Giant Slalom snowboard, dedicated himself to a different kind of powder, accumulating drug charges until finally breaking into the FBI’s ‘Ten Most Wanted’ list last year (at least better than 24th?). 

Wedding handed himself in at the US embassy in Mexico City last month after years reportedly living under the protection of the famed Sinaloa cartel. These sudden surrenders tend to suggest someone’s now fearing the cartel more than prison. 

  1. The four-day curse 

Russia has a murky Olympic record, and we’re not just talking about Putin’s state-sponsored doping scandal. Rather, we’re talking about how on two occasions he’s launched new wars against Ukraine exactly four days after the closing ceremony: 

  • The first was in 2014, when he countered the popular ousting of his puppet in Ukraine by seizing Crimea. Why wait until after the Olympics? Putin was host. 

  • Ditto in China’s 2022 host year, when US intelligence suggests President Xi asked Putin not to invade Ukraine until after the games. Bad for business.

  1. That time the Koreas were one

You might recall South Korea’s 2018 games when North and South paraded together under a unified Korea banner. That flag made its first official appearance back at the 1991 World Table Tennis Championships in Japan — a reminder of sport’s long history as a forum for reconciliation. The two Koreas even fielded a joint 2018 ice hockey team, which scored more standing ovations than goals.

But why’d the autocratic North suddenly show openness to this kind of unity?

  • The early 1990s reflected isolation after the collapse of the USSR, while…

  • 2018 reflected confidence after Kim declared his credible nuclear deterrent.

  1. Citizenship drama on the slopes 

Athletes switch citizenship for all kinds of reasons: maybe your grandma’s birthplace has better facilities, or pays more, or has better qualifying chances, or isn’t banned.

There are a dozen or so athletes doing it for these Winter Games, and most go under the radar, like the Kiwi skier switching to the famously alpine nation of United Arab Emirates. But every now and then, a switch goes viral, like freestyle prodigy Eileen Gu. Why?

  • At the time (2019) she had just won the world cup

  • That rising star meant more cash and hype

  • It came just as Trump 1.0 was taking a more assertive stance on China, and

  • There was mystery whether she renounced her US citizenship per China’s rules.

That mix of fame, mystery, and geopolitics thrust Gu onto centre stage. 

  1. Boycotts 

It’s almost boycott schmoycott these days: Western countries boycotted China’s 2022 games over Xinjiang, and Georgia tried boycotting Russia’s 2014 games over South Ossetia. But here’s another example you might not recall because you weren’t born.

Back in 1980, the Olympic Committee forced Taiwan to participate under a new ‘Chinese Taipei’ name to make way for mainland China’s first Winter Olympic stint since the communist takeover of 1949. But when eight Taiwanese athletes then arrived at America’s Lake Placid Olympic Village, organisers denied them entry over their ‘Republic of China’ ID.

After finding a hotel room elsewhere, the athletes ended up boycotting the Games.

Intrigue’s Take

The Olympic Committee loves to pretend sport is some neutral, transcendental platform reserved for slow-motion, synth-backed feats of humanity. But no amount of slow-motion or synth can scrub the politics, and the Committee knows this. It is, after all, the same body that awarded actual Nazis the hosting rights for the (eventually cancelled) 1940 Winter Games, after Hitler had annexed Austria and taken Czechoslovakia.

Sure, sometimes politics might warm the cockles (whatever a cockle is) of your heart, like two Koreas united. Others might leave you with chills, like Putin spending the GDP of Tunisia on history’s most expensive games to burnish his image before his next invasion.

Anyway, for the wild world that is 2026, here’s hoping we see more warmth, less chills. And in the meantime, please enjoy Tanner’s sick Backside Triple Cork 1440 Crossbone.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

🇮🇷 IRAN — Leaving ahead of talks.
DC has (again) issued a notice urging US citizens to ‘leave Iran now’ ahead of today’s planned US-Iran talks in Oman. President Trump wants Iran to pause its nuclear program, limit its ballistic missile program, and stop funding proxies like Hezbollah and the Houthis, conditions the mullahs have previously rejected. (CNBC)

Comment: DC issued a similar warning when Trump was publicly weighing up strikes last month.

🇷🇺 RUSSIA — General shot.
An unknown assailant has shot yet another senior Russian general in Moscow. This one (Alekseyev) is deputy head of Russia’s military intelligence. We say ‘is’ because he’s been rushed to hospital and his current status is unclear. (Reuters)

Comment: Whodunnit? The obvious suspect is Ukraine’s own intelligence services, which have a proven record of hitting these guys in the middle of Moscow. To boot, Alekseyev was one of the invasion’s key architects. But he was also famously tight with Prigozhin (of Wagner mutiny fame), so his enemies go beyond Ukraine.

🇵🇰 PAKISTAN — We’re done here.
Pakistan’s military says it’s now ended its week-long operation against Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) separatists, with hundreds reported dead. The push across Pakistan’s resource-rich region came in response to coordinated BLA attacks on schools, banks, markets and military sites. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: Pakistan continues to accuse neighbouring India and Afghanistan of backing the Balochs, claims Delhi and Kabul deny. We explored this volatile situation here. 

🇺🇸 UNITED STATES — Re-opening of channels.
The US and Russia have agreed to re-establish senior military-to-military contact, frozen since Moscow's 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine. (Bloomberg $)

Comment: The US-Russia New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START) expired yesterday (Thursday), so there’s probably a premium on any crisis phone right now. But it’s arguably also another US concession without anything in return.

🇰🇭 CAMBODIA — Your records, our evidence.
Cambodia has asked France to provide historical documents and advisory support to help resolve its border dispute with Thailand, citing France’s 1907 role in mapping the frontier during the country's colonial era. (The Straits Times)

Comment: Thailand managed to seize quite a bit of disputed land during last year’s spat, and it’s hard to see it returning an inch, historical evidence or not.

🇲🇽 MEXICO — ¡Shots! ¡Shots! ¡Shots!
Authorities have arrested the mayor of Tequila (yes, it is a town) and three senior city officials for allegedly extorting tequila distilleries. It’s part of a federal anti-corruption crackdown targeting municipal officials accused of cartel links. (NYT $)

Comment: The last time one of Mexico’s ~2,500 mayors hit the headlines, it was because one (in Uruapan) took a brave stand against organised crime and was assassinated for his troubles. So there’s a book-end feel to this.

🇲🇦 MOROCCO — Proceed with caution.
The Moroccan military has evacuated more than 140,000 people from the country’s northwest amid heavy rain, dam overflows, and flooding. It’s all broken seven years of drought, but the exceptional scale is disrupting everything from universities to maritime traffic with Spain. (ABC News)

Extra Intrigue

Three stories we couldn’t shoehorn in this week 🥾

Bouquet of the day

Credits: Fresh Flowers in Nairobi Kenya

With Valentine’s Day just around the corner, why not get your loved one a [*checks notes*] decoratively arranged pile of cash.

Why not, dear Intriguer? Because Kenya’s central bank says so! The popular practice apparently creates a headache, with glued and stapled banknotes clogging up ATMs.

Still not deterred? The bank is even warning you could get seven years in jail! So to quote 20th century philosopher Meatloaf, we would do anything for love, but we won’t do that.

Friday Quiz

Olympic themed, of course.

1) When was the first ever Winter Games?

2) Which of these is *not* a Winter Olympics sport anymore?

3) What nationality is the most-decorated Winter Olympian?