🌍 The IMF is looking to reform

Hi there Intriguer. Even animals love winning. A horse once jumped a fence to lead France’s Critérium International bike race for miles. Feeling ambitious, a pony then gate-crashed the Tour of Poland. And because why not, a cow had a crack in last week’s Tour of San Carlos in Costa Rica.

Today’s briefing is a 4 min read:

• 🏦 The IMF says it’s ready for change.

• 🇭🇹 The UN approves a peacekeeping mission to Haiti.

• ➕ Plus: An embassy on stilts, how the papers are covering the ousting of the US House Speaker, and a crypto king in court.

1. 🇦🇲 Armenia: Lawmakers have voted in favour of joining the International Criminal Court (ICC), in an apparent show of defiance against Armenia’s estranged ally Russia. The ICC has a warrant out for the Russian president’s arrest.

2. 🇭🇺 Hungary: The EU is reportedly considering unblocking $13.6B in frozen funds in exchange for Hungary’s support on a new Ukraine aid package. Brussels originally blocked the funds due to concerns about rule of law erosion in Hungary.

3. 🇮🇳 India: Delhi has told Canada to withdraw around 40 diplomats from India, amid continued fallout over allegations of India’s possible role in the murder of a Canadian citizen. This latest move could cut Canada’s local diplomatic footprint by two thirds.

4. 🇺🇸 US: The Federal Communications Commission issued its first fine for space debris on Monday, accusing a satellite TV company of not properly deorbiting a decades-old satellite. There are over 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting the Earth.

5. 🇹🇳 Tunisia: President Kais Saied has refused a $133M disbursement from the EU, claiming it wasn’t what the parties had previously agreed. The move throws into question the viability of the EU-Tunisia migration pact signed in July.

🏦 IMF | Development

Is the IMF ready for reform?

The head of the International Monetary Fund (IMF), Kristalina Georgieva, has told the Financial Times she would back reforms around IMF voting.

Why? In theory, IMF members earn voting power in the organisation based on their relative share of the global economy, but in practice:

• 🇺🇸 The US (15.3% of the global economy) has a 17.4% voting share

• 🇩🇪 Germany (3.2% of the global economy) has a 5.6% voting share

• 🇮🇳 India (7.47% of the global economy) has a 2.75% vote, and

• 🇨🇳 China (18.9% of the global economy) has 6.4% of the votes.

While the IMF is supposed to review these voting shares every five years, the last time its Board of Governors approved new arrangements was in 2010.

And what’s happened since 2010? 

India’s economy has more than doubled, while China’s has nearly tripled. And China has moved to carve out its own space in the international financial system by launching a development bank (and other programs).

Intrigue's take: If you wanted the IMF to better reflect the modern world, China’s underrepresentation seems a fair enough place to start.

But the US (which has IMF veto power) has hinted it’ll block such measures so long as China fails to respect the IMF’s “roles and norms”, a veiled reference to criticism that China has hampered IMF efforts to ease the debt burden on poor countries.

So maybe a US veto will be the carrot China needs to adjust its approach to the IMF. Or… maybe it’ll be the stick that pushes China further away.

Also worth noting:

• The IMF has a December deadline to complete its voting review.

• A recent IMF visit to Sri Lanka reportedly saw the IMF deny further bailouts until China grants Sri Lanka debt relief. Sri Lanka’s president apparently plans to raise this soon with his Chinese counterpart.

📰 How newspapers covered…

The ousting of the US Speaker of the House

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🇭🇹 Haiti | Defence & security

UN Security Council approves Haiti mission

The UN Security Council (UNSC) has approved an initial year-long security mission to Haiti to aid with the country’s entrenched gang problem. Ariel Henry, the acting prime minister who’s been calling for foreign support since last year, thanked the UNSC, adding “we couldn't wait any longer”.

Calling the security situation in Haiti ‘dire’ is an understatement:

• Thousands have been killed since January

• Violent gangs control most of the capital Port-au-Prince, and

• A key gang leader has even called for an armed uprising to overthrow the provisional government

So this multinational and UN-authorised mission, to be led by Kenya, aims to secure key infrastructure while supporting local police in “targeted operations”.

Why’d it take so long? Partly because the two previous UN peacekeeping missions to Haiti led to a cholera outbreak and widespread abuse.

Intrigue’s take: So there are real questions around whether Haiti is ready for another foreign intervention; and whether Kenya is best placed to lead it.

But it’s notable that the UN Security Council has managed to push past its record of gridlock and agree on an option at all. And that’ll count as a success for those who see doing nothing as the worst option of all.

Also worth noting:

• The UNSC motion passed with 13 votes out of 15.

• The two abstentions came from Russia and China: Russia said an armed intervention was an extreme measure that needed to be thought through, while China said that without a functional government in place, external support wouldn’t be effective.

➕ Extra Intrigue

What we’re reading about the trial of Sam Bankman-Fried, founder of the collapsed crypto exchange FTX

• SBF’s trial starts this week, but how did he — and FTX — get here?

• ‘Dark’ donations, free love and the fall: the Sam Bankman-Fried trial is here

• The FTX trial is bigger than Sam Bankman-Fried

• Crypto Could Be a Mystery to Jurors in Bankman-Fried Case ($)

🗳️ Poll time!

 🏠 Embassy of the day

Ecuador’s embassy in neighbouring Colombia stands out. Literally. Its office space is elevated on stilts to add to the building’s multi-dimensionality, while its colour palette is a stark contrast to the surrounding brick buildings. And don’t even get us started on all that sweet, sweet, natural light.

Yesterday’s poll: Which of the following do you think is the best way to build influence abroad?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💸 Investment (34%)

🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨 🚢 Trade (34%)

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎖️ Security (9%)

🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎭 Culture (20%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 💸 J: “It's tangible for both citizens and leaders.”

• 🚢 R.C: “Countries' trade needs are perhaps the only reason the world hasn't yet become a huge graveyard.”

• 🎖️ L.T: “A strong military speaks volumes.”

• 🎭 T.S: “Religion (as an aspect of culture) is the best way to build influence and alliances abroad.”