๐ŸŒ The Iran conflict widens


๐ŸŒ The Iran conflict widens

Plus: New Rembrandt just dropped

Todayโ€™s briefing:
โ€” The Iran conflict widens
โ€” This leader is buying 105,000 cars
โ€” New Rembrandt just dropped

Good morning Intriguer. I knew that something serious had gone down when I woke up to over 100 messages on the Intrigue DiploClub group chat on Saturday morning. Either that or my mum had discovered a new conspiracy corner of the internet sheโ€™s insisted on sharing with me.

As the US-Israel operation in Iran intensifies, weโ€™ve seen more of the region becoming embroiled, including even the Gulf states which have traditionally not been involved in any direct military operations against Iran. Weโ€™re also now seeing rising casualties and a direct impact on the oil markets.

Strap in, Intriguers, for as weโ€™ll see in todayโ€™s briefing, this is only the beginning.

P.S. A hearty welcome to our new subscribers who joined after my and Johnโ€™s appearance on 2Way last night to discuss all things geopolitics. And for those whoโ€™ve not seen it, I highly recommend checking out 2Way and its innovative, real-time newsy chat show vibes.

Number of the day

~50%ย 

Thatโ€™s how much European gas prices initially rose on Monday after QatarEnergy, the worldโ€™s top LNG producer, halted production amid Iranian attacks. That spike has since eased slightly to ~34%.

Supreme placeholder

Things are moving fast, so letโ€™s start with a quick โ€œpreviously on The West Wingโ€ recap.

Since our last briefing, the US has achieved full air superiority over Tehran, broadened its target list (eg, a state TV broadcaster got hit), and its Israeli allies have broadcast a Netanyahu message in Farsi over Iranโ€™s hacked TV networks, urging folks to rise up.

Iran has declared the critical Hormuz Strait closed, hit an oil tanker servicing the US navy, hit the worldโ€™s largest LNG export complex in Qatar (~25% of global supply), and scored other missile and drone hits across Israel, the UAE, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia (including some damage to the US embassy in Riyadh).

And the broader region has downed two Iranian Su-24 fighter jets off Qatar, suspended land passage for Iranians fleeing into Turkey, while Kuwait accidentally shot down three US fighter jets (the pilots ejected).

So youโ€™ve got a rapidly expanding conflict trapping a reported 10% of the entire global container shipping fleet, and rocking energy markets, while reported casualties keep climbing: ~700 in Iran, 52 in Lebanon, 10 in Israel, six US service personnel, and one each in Oman, Kuwait, and Bahrain. And thatโ€™s before you look at the hundreds of thousands of foreign travellers now stranded across Middle East hubs.

So if thatโ€™s the chessboard leaders are waking up to, how are they playing each move?

Letโ€™s start with Paris.ย 

President Macron just repeated a familiar point, urging his nation, โ€œTo be free, one must be feared. To be feared, one must be powerful." But this time, heโ€™s backing that rhetoric up with arguably the most significant European security announcement in decades:

  • He just offered to station nuclear-armed aircraft in the UK, Germany, Poland, Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden, and Denmark. To put it another way, heโ€™s offering to semi-extend Franceโ€™s nuclear umbrella to eight neighbours.

To be clear, itโ€™s still in talks, and a French finger would still remain firmly on the trigger. But extending the offer to countries already covered by the US nuclear umbrella (NATO) is a reminder how much some now doubt the strength of that US commitment.

Now letโ€™s cross the channel over to London.

More so than any EU counterparts, itโ€™s Prime Minister Starmer copping strays from DC.

Why? Starmer initially distanced himself from the US/Israel attacks, then shifted to limited support: ie, allowing US use of UK bases to neutralise Iranian drones and missiles. Itโ€™sโ€ฆ

  • a) partly because the UK (like other US allies) was sidelined pre-attack

  • b) partly over concerns of legality and lessons from Iraq, but itโ€™s alsoโ€ฆ

  • c) partly his โ€œLove Actuallyโ€ moment to resist US bullying amid low approvals (though conservative opposition figures are also slamming him as too weak).

But nobody is copping more painful strays than the Gulf statesโ€ฆ

Leading us to Doha

We couldโ€™ve picked any regional hub โ€” the Emiratis, for example, have now suffered the most Iranian attacks (~170 ballistic missiles, two cruise missiles and ~600 drones!) for their US and Israel-friendly ties plus outsized economic leverage.

But Qatar also stands out becauseโ€ฆ

  • Itโ€™s now the only Gulf state to shoot down Iranian jets, and yetโ€ฆ

  • Qatar was long Iranโ€™s closest Arab friend, partly because the two share a major gas field, but also partly as a way for the Qataris to balance against the Saudis.

So this is not just a collapse in relatively functional Qatar-Iran ties, but also a collapse in Qatarโ€™s whole strategy of security via ambiguity: instead of staying safe by playing the giants against each other, itโ€™s now somehow again been hit by both Israel (2025) and Iran.

Intrigueโ€™s Take

So thatโ€™s a quick wrap of Iranโ€™s many foes, but itโ€™s worth a broader fireside chat about its dwindling list of friends.

First, we flagged yesterday the ways this war harms Putinโ€™s counterweight branding and pariah strategy, but this war also brings Putin some upsides, at least initially:

  • Higher energy prices help keep his war economy afloat a little longer

  • Distracted and divided Western foes take their eyes off his atrocities again

  • His non-serious peace talks in Abu Dhabi get delayed again, and

  • Ukraineโ€™s Zelensky is warning it could all drain Kyivโ€™s own air defence support.

Second, itโ€™s important to retain a bit of nuance around China, too. Sure, we flagged how this all highlights the regional limits of its power. Plus losing Maduro then the Ayatollah โ€” aka ~17% of oil imports โ€” trims Xiโ€™s manoeuvrability ahead of his Trump summit.

But itโ€™s worth balancing those takes against others:

  • i) Xi doesnโ€™t care what happens to Maduro or Khamenei. Theyโ€™re not allies, he had no investment in their survival, and heโ€™s got deep oil reserves and suppliers. But in their demise, Xi gets to contrast US aggression against Chinese restraint.

  • ii) Just because hits on Maduro or Tehran might impose costs on China, thatโ€™s not to suggest these hits are some kind of 4D chess against China. If that were the case, DC wouldnโ€™t have also spent a year pissing off US allies across Asia; and

  • iii) The idea of this all โ€œdistracting and diluting US powerโ€ is already taking shape: Korean outlets are flagging the US might remove its local THAAD air defence (for re-use in the Middle East). China has demanded this for a decade, and now might get it, not because of any concession or contrition, but because this Iran war has forced tough US choices: defend allies in Asia, or the Middle East.

Then third, thereโ€™s Cuba, widely seen as โ€œnextโ€ on Trumpโ€™s list โ€” thatโ€™s another reason why so much now hinges on this Iran conflict, but the causation isnโ€™t one-way:

  • Sure, itโ€™s possible a regional debacle deters Trump from trying his luck in Cuba.

  • But itโ€™s also possible a regional debacle spurs Trump to try his luck again, if only to generate better mid-term headlines with an easier target.

But bottom line: the longer this war lasts, the more it shifts from who wins to who bleeds least.

Todayโ€™s briefing is presented byโ€ฆ

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Meanwhile, elsewhereโ€ฆ

๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ทย SOUTH KOREA War rally?
South Korean markets reopened after a public holiday to yet another war (Iran). That means Seoulโ€™s biggest defence contractor (Hanwha) is now up 20% alone, but the broader market has plunged ~7% amid broader jitters. (Korea Times)

Comment: Itโ€™s a similar story across other advanced economies, as investors weigh up the risks of oil spikes, inflation, and fear all trimming growth expectations.

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡ผย RWANDA Sanctions.
The US has imposed sanctions on the Rwandan army and top generals over the countryโ€™s role in the ongoing violence in eastern DR Congo. (Reuters)

Comment: Itโ€™s getting harder โ€” and costlier โ€” for Rwanda to maintain the fiction that itโ€™s not backing the M23 rebels now occupying vast swathes of neighbouring Congo.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡พย CYPRUS Caught in the crossfire.
Greece has announced itโ€™ll deploy two warships and two fighter jets to Cyprus after a series of drone attacks targeted the islandโ€™s British base. France is reportedly planning to send anti-missile and anti-drone systems too. (Ekathimerini.com)

Comment: โ€˜The Greeks are fighting the Persiansโ€™ is quite the flashback. Anyway, Cyprus is apparently irked at the UKโ€™s relatively broad wording for its US authorisation to use RAF bases, and was gunning for humanitarian use only. Itโ€™s a classic case study on the politics of offshore basing.

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆย CANADA Friends again?
Wrapping his first prime ministerial visit to India, Mark Carney has agreed with Delhiโ€™s Narendra Modi to fast-track trade talks, plus the two signed a pact to supply India with uranium. (BBC)ย 

Comment: Itโ€™s a big deal given how far India-Canada ties fell amid Indiaโ€™s efforts to assassinate Sikh separatist leaders in Canada and beyond. It seems less about any magical negotiation breakthrough, and more just the opportunity for a political reset that comes with a new leader (Carney replacing Trudeau).

๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ธย SOUTH SUDAN Attack on the brink. ย 
Authorities are blaming armed youth linked to the opposition SPLA-IO rebel group after an attack in the countryโ€™s north left at least ~170 dead. UN peacekeepers are sheltering another 1,000 civilians within their base. (Al Jazeera)

Comment: The UN has repeatedly warned the country risks more civil war amid a never-ending spat between the president (Kiir) and his former deputy (Machar).

๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ณย CHINA Youโ€™re not on the list. ย 
Chinaโ€™s ruling communist party has removed 19 names (including nine generals) from the list of lawmakers ahead of this weekโ€™s yearly Two Sessions conference. (Independent)

Comment: As usual, thereโ€™s mystery around this last-minute guestlist edit, but it fits President Xiโ€™s recent pattern of purges, whether theyโ€™re anti-corruption, paranoia, or both. We wrote about that here.

๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉย INDONESIA Truck that. ย 
The Indonesian government has hit pause on an order for 105,000 vehicles from India amid parliamentary pushback urging local-built alternatives. The order, comprised of 4x4s and six-wheelers, is part of the presidentโ€™s plans to establish 80,000 community cooperatives across Indonesia. (Bloomberg $)

Extra Intrigue

Hereโ€™s what people around the world are googling

  • Folks in ๐Ÿ‡ฆ๐Ÿ‡ทย Argentina looked up โ€˜Nahuel Galloโ€™ after news broke that the Argentine soldier, arrested by Venezuelan authorities in 2024, has been released.

  • ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡ฆ Canadian tech-heads searched for โ€˜Appleโ€™ after the US tech giant released its newest affordable phone, the 17e.

  • And netizens in ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡ญย Ghana caught up with the latest โ€˜Claudeโ€™ drama amid reports the US used Anthropicโ€™s AI system in its Iran strikes, hours after its US ban.

Artwork of the day

Credits: Rijksmuseum/Kelly Schenk

The art world doesnโ€™t often make it to the front pages (unless a critic gets pelted with dog poo by a disgruntled ballet director), so when it does, itโ€™s worth a quick read.

Amsterdamโ€™s Rijksmuseum says itโ€™s recovered a long-lost painting by Rembrandt! Titled โ€˜Vision of Zechariah in the Templeโ€™, it depicts the biblical scene of Archangel Gabriel announcing to high priest Zacharias that he and his wife will have a son (John the Baptist).

The painting, unseen since its 1961 private sale, goes on display from 4 March.

Todayโ€™s poll

If you were a US ally in the region, how would you respond right now?

Yesterdayโ€™s poll: Where do you think this Iran conflict ends?

๐Ÿ”ฅ More chaos (65%)
๐Ÿ™‹ A more benign Iran (23%)
๐Ÿ˜  A more hostile Iran (11%)
โœ๏ธ Other (1%)

Your two cents:

  • ๐Ÿ”ฅ P.J: โ€œThe IRGC will pull a praetorian guard and install its own puppet. Perhaps give Trump oil concessions to keep from getting schwacked again. Then they skim off what they can, leaving the people with an empty bag and possibly an even more aggressive police state to keep them quiet.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ™‹ย E.K.H: โ€œLeadership is dead, military capabilities are destroyed, and consequences for non-compliance have been established. It's not legal or moral, but it's effective.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ”ฅย G: โ€œThe โ€˜Westโ€™ has a nasty habit of starting something without a clearly defined end.โ€œ

  • โœ๏ธ R.L: โ€œThe foreign meddling, civilian loss of life, and ensuing political chaos will cause resentment to fester for generations โ€” if it doesn't peak right after the war, it certainly will in the following decades.โ€