Plus: Ban of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Israel-Hamas deal wobbles |
2️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend tips |
3️⃣ Ban of the day |
Hi Intriguer. One of the fun things about pursuing any profession is getting initiated into its jokes. For example, here’s a classic among musicians — what’s the definition of an optimist? A jazz bassoonist with a business card.
Here’s another one, but among spies — it tells the tale of two secretive spy agencies operating out of the same embassy. To hide what they’re each doing, one agency disguises its roof antenna as a satellite dish; and the other disguises its satellite dish as a roof antenna. The end result of all this secrecy and non-coordination, of course, is that they each end up inadvertently outing the other. I guess you had to be there?
Anyway, let’s dive right into today’s briefing, which gets us up to speed on what’s going on with Israel and Hamas.
Zelensky to meet Vance in Munich.
The Ukrainian president is set to meet the US VP at the Munich Security Conference today (Friday), just after a series of US comments — foreshadowing a reduced US security presence in Europe — rattled the region. US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth has now seemingly walked back his own contribution to that rattling, affirming everything is still “on the table”. Meanwhile, Kyiv says a Russian drone just hit the structure protecting the destroyed Chernobyl nuclear reactor, though radiation levels remain stable.
More US tariffs on the way.
President Trump has unveiled a plan to impose new reciprocal tariffs on a country-by-country basis to be calibrated by April 1st, targeting any trade partners using unfair levies, subsidies, or restrictions. Trump’s plan seems to include value-added taxes (VAT / GST) as an unfair trade barrier liable for targeting.
British chip designer plans own chip.
‘Arm’ has reportedly hashed out plans to develop and produce its own chips, upending its current strategy of licensing its blueprints to clients. If confirmed, the move could upend the balance among the world’s biggest chipmakers.
Modi hails “mega partnership” with Trump.
The Indian leader and Trump agreed to a deal that’ll see India import more US oil and gas. Responding to Trump’s criticism of India’s tariffs, Modi said he’s open to reducing tariffs on US goods, repatriating undocumented Indian nationals, and buying more US fighter jets.
Car-ramming attack injures dozens in Munich.
An Afghan national is in custody after ramming his car into a Munich crowd, leaving dozens injured. It puts migration back in the spotlight ahead of German elections on February 23, with the Taliban now saying it’ll cooperate on deportations in return for the Taliban being able to re-establish a consulate in Germany.
TikTok’s back in the stores.
Apple and Google have restored the hit video app to their app stores after President Trump assured the two tech giants they won’t be fined. According to Trump’s extension, TikTok’s China-based parent company now has ~50 days to sell or face a US ban.
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TOP STORY
The Israel-Hamas ceasefire wobbles
An Israeli tank headed to Gaza. Credits: AFP.
It’s been three weeks since Israel and Hamas signed a deal that put a tentative end to their ~16 months of devastating conflict.
The pact ramped up the flow of aid into the strip and enabled the return of an initial 16 Israeli hostages held by Hamas and more than 730 Palestinian prisoners in Israel. Another 17 Israeli hostages are still due for exchange with ~1,200 Palestinian prisoners.
But now, halfway through the deal’s first phase, it’s had a wobbly few days. Here’s why.
On Monday, Hamas warned it was going to delay this weekend’s scheduled release of the next three Israeli hostages over what it alleges have been Israeli breaches of the deal: blocking returning Gazans, opening fire on civilians, and limiting the entry of aid.
For its part, Israel previously condemned Hamas delays, and argued it was slowing Gazan returns in response. But this time, Netanyahu described the Hamas message itself as a breach, and ordered a troop build-up while warning on Tuesday, "if Hamas does not return our hostages by Saturday noon, the ceasefire will end and the IDF will resume intense fighting".
That’s when a bit of confusion broke out: was Netanyahu talking about the same three hostages due for release tomorrow (Saturday), or was he now talking about all remaining hostages? Israeli officials gave conflicting answers, while Donald Trump chimed in too.
In parallel, public opinion splintered in Israel: hostage families panicked, while hard-liners cited the chaos as vindication that Israel should never have done the deal in the first place. And some of the Israeli securocrats who negotiated the deal worried that this could all now just endanger hostage lives.
Meanwhile, mediators scrambled, and their efforts seemingly paid off — by yesterday (Thursday), Hamas was citing “positive” talks with Egypt and Qatar on getting caravans, tents, construction equipment, medical supplies, and fuel into Gaza. The group was therefore agreeing to release the scheduled three Israeli hostages this weekend after all.
So we’ll see this weekend what exactly happens, but the deal seems back on track for now.
Yet still… this wobble has raised questions around its overall integrity.
First, the repeated recriminations have eroded whatever trust was there to begin with, while emboldening hard-liners, and making future compromises seem more elusive.
Second, everyone’s meant to start talks on the deal’s second phase this week, with Hamas releasing the last ~60 hostages (24 alive) in return for Israel’s full withdrawal starting early March. But those talks haven’t started, partly because everyone’s still trying to salvage phase one, but also because Hamas has used each release as such a public show of force (contrary to Bibi’s war aims), that some hardliners now want him to go back in.
And third, that’s all played out while Donald Trump continues to reiterate his vision for the US to “take over” the Gaza strip, push two million Palestinians into Egypt and Jordan (both heavily dependent on US aid), then rebuild and/or re-develop Gaza.
And while polls suggest many Israelis support this idea, it’s hitting outright rejection elsewhere given the many hurdles, including…
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Legal: Article 49 of the 4th Geneva Convention is one of several laws prohibiting forcible transfers
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Ethical: War crimes or crimes against humanity erode America’s moral standing
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Logistical: Relocating two million people isn’t immediately feasible
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Security: Any attempt would subject US troops to attacks in Gaza and elsewhere
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Political: Trump campaigned on delivering less intervention, not more, and
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Geopolitical: The plan would destabilise two critical US security partners (Egypt and Jordan) — the last time the region took an influx of Palestinians, it led to one civil war in Jordan then another in Lebanon.
Still, it’s spooked Egypt into calling an emergency Arab Summit on February 27, aiming to present “a comprehensive vision for the reconstruction of the Gaza Strip”, without displacing Palestinians.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
There’s speculation around what exactly Trump is up to here: perhaps it’s another ‘threaten then negotiate’, or maybe he’s trying to jolt the region into some kind of new security equilibrium with Israel — like, say, how Trump 1.0’s threats to leave NATO might’ve shocked Europe into owning more of its own security vis a vis Russia (though Russia’s invasion of Ukraine clearly nudged Europe along too).
Whatever’s going on, the US president’s comments might’ve also hardened sentiment within Hamas — from its perspective, why return hostages (the group’s last leverage) if the war is still set to resume, or if the end goal is just to push Palestinians out of Gaza?
And that, in turn, might’ve also hardened sentiment among the Houthis in Yemen — they’re already threatening to resume attacks against shipping through the Red Sea.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has scored a diplomatic win in Pakistan by gaining unspecified support for Northern Cyprus, a territory (with 40,000 Turkish troops) currently recognised only by Turkey itself. Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said he “fully supports the cause of northern Cyprus”, in a shift away from Pakistan’s decades-long semi-neutral stance.
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🇮🇹 Italy: A wide-ranging investigation has revealed that Sicily’s Cosa Nostra mafia is now using encrypted phones and micro-sim cards to evade surveillance. But prosecutors claim that, while parts of Italy’s high-security prison system are still at the mercy of the mob, decades of crackdowns have now reduced Cosa Nostra to a shadow of its former self.
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🇲🇾 Malaysia: In a purported effort to drive efficiency, Kuala Lumpur has announced it’s firing civil servants who don’t have a school diploma, totalling around 30,000 workers. Likewise, state energy firm Petronas shared last week that it’s now “right sizing” its workforce to ensure its survival past 2035.
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🇲🇽 Mexico: With the new ‘Gulf of America’ name starting to appear on maps, Mexico’s leader Claudia Sheinbaum has told reporters she hasn’t ruled out suing Google. Meanwhile, the White House has restricted access for AP News after the organisation didn’t immediately recognise the name change in reporting.
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🇪🇹 Ethiopia: African Union (AU) leaders will gather in Addis Ababa for the 38th annual heads of state summit this weekend, with a partial focus on calls for colonial reparations. The AU joined forces on the issue with the Caribbean bloc CARICOM in 2023, but there’s been little progress since.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigue’s weekend recommendations
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Watch Intrigue’s candid chat with the former foreign minister of Lithuania, Gabrielius Landsbergis, covering everything from China and Russia through to the US and Europe, plus some sage career advice for those in diplomacy and beyond.
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Bake yourself a Persian Love Cake, which might’ve actually been created by a 2000s-era Australian chef who just thought the name sounded cool.
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And listen to Face Off, the acclaimed podcast on China-US ties, which just kicked off season two (with Intrigue as a proud partner!).
BAN OF THE DAY
If you were planning to get properly shafted at the 2034 World Cup in Saudi Arabia, it’s probably time to start paring back those ambitions because Riyadh just made clear there’ll be no booze. For reasons we can guess (have you been to a British football match?), the Saudis opted to make this particular announcement via their top envoy to the UK, Prince Khalid bin Bandar Al Saud, who softened the blow with a dash of levity — "rather like our weather, it's a dry country.”
FRIDAY QUIZ
Happy St Valentine's Day!
1) How many stems of flowers are sold on St Valentine's Day every year, globally? |
2) Shakespeare mentions St Valentine's Day in which of his tragedies? |
3) Which of the following platforms was founded on St Valentine's Day in 2005? |
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