Plus: Spot the difference
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The Munich Security Conference in 3 quotes |
2️⃣ Danes offer to buy California |
3️⃣ Spot the difference |
Hi Intriguer. Let’s kick the week off with a couple of quotes, shall we?
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The first is often attributed to Abraham Lincoln, but it probably paraphrases a line from the 1963 book penned by the Nobel Prize-winning physicist, Dennis Gabor: “the best way to predict the future is to create it.”
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The second was in Harry Truman’s speech to Congress back in 1947, when he declared that “the world is not static, and the status quo is not sacred.”
These lines would’ve made perfect sense to audiences at the time, still grappling with the scars of historic world wars. But by the time I was born (in the 80s, great decade btw), my world was feeling more like some kind of prosperous, secure default. It wasn’t until I felt life outside the bubble that I really started to understand the quotes above.
Anyway, they’re both on my mind as Europe and the broader world now wrestle with some historic US messages dropped at the weekend’s Munich Security Conference.
PS – ¿Hablas español? ¡Check out our weekly edition in Spanish!
Rubio prepares to meet Lavrov.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has just arrived in Saudi Arabia ahead of talks (as soon as Tuesday) with Russia’s Sergey Lavrov on a possible Russo-Ukraine deal. Neither Ukraine nor Europe appear to have been invited, while Moscow has taken a triumphant tone over this possible end to its isolation. The UK’s Keir Starmer has flagged a willingness to send British peacekeepers to Ukraine for “the security of our continent”.
Xi meets China’s business moguls.
China’s leader has met some of the country’s top tycoons at a business forum earlier today (Monday). Xi’s speech, plus his willingness to include Jack Ma (who vanished from public view after a tangle with regulators), both hint that Xi might now take a friendlier approach to the private sector after years of crackdowns and disappointing data.
Netanyahu vows to “finish the job” in Iran.
Standing next to top US envoy Marco Rubio, the Israeli PM has told reporters that Israel already dealt Iran a “mighty blow” and will now “finish the job” thanks to the Trump administration’s support. US intelligence agencies have reportedly assessed that Israel will attempt to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities this year.
German candidates face off in TV debate.
The leaders of Germany’s four main parties butted heads on live TV during a two-hour debate last night, touching on immigration, the economy, Ukraine, and beyond. Polls suggest Chancellor Scholz is leading his Social Democrats to their worst performance in post-war history, with conservative Friedrich Merz primed to emerge on top this Sunday.
Armed group takes another city in DRC.
The Rwandan-backed M23 rebels have now taken the city of Bukavu in Eastern DR Congo, encountering little resistance. They’ve advanced rapidly in recent weeks and are now in control of the entire Lake Kivu area.
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TOP STORY
The Munich Security Conference in three quotes
As you read this, European leaders are huddled in Paris trying to figure out their next move after the weekend’s historic Munich Security Conference.
Our very own John and Kristen were in Munich too, so here are three of the biggest quotes from one of the world’s top security conferences to get you up to speed:
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“What I worry about is the threat from within, the retreat of Europe from some of its most fundamental values, values shared with the United States of America” – US Vice President JD Vance
While many expected Vance to address Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine, he hardly mentioned it. Sure, the VP told The Wall Street Journal that Russia’s war was the subtext of his remarks, but as for the actual text? One European official summed it up to Intrigue as Vance “scolding Europeans on democracy”, with references to (for example)…
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i) Romania’s election do-over after Russia’s TikTok interference — Vance argued, “if your democracy can be destroyed with a few hundred thousand dollars of digital advertising from a foreign country, then it wasn’t very strong to begin with”, and
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ii) He also described the Conference’s move to ban two German parties (the left-populist BSW and right-populist AfD) as undermining freedom of speech.
Vance’s remarks earned cheers from his base back home, but his audience in Europe? Not so much. Point b) in particular really hit a nerve in Germany, where security services have actually classified parts of the AfD as extremist; conference organisers then banned both parties after they walked out during last year’s Bundestag address by Ukraine’s Zelensky — seen as a breach of Munich’s founding principle of peace through dialogue.
Anyway, while debate around immigration is now fairly mainstream in Germany, any allure of the AfD’s promised hardline approach might’ve been blunted by resentment at what German leader Olaf Scholz later slammed as unacceptable US interference ahead of elections this Sunday (some polls put the AfD in second place).
Meanwhile at a background briefing for German media (extended to Intrigue because our very own Kristen speaks deutsch 💅), a German military official tried valiantly to re-focus everyone’s attention back on how the West should jointly respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine rather than Vance’s views on EU politics. But to no avail.
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“I really believe that time has come. The Armed Forces of Europe must be created” – Ukrainian President Zelenskyy
If Europeans saw Vance as the grinch, Zelenskyy was the star, injecting passion into a weekend that otherwise seemed marked by stunned silence. And he used his speech to make the above call for Europe to create its own united armed forces in response to two drivers:
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i) First he was, of course, partly responding to Russia’s invasion, including its use of an Iranian drone to hit the Chernobyl nuclear plant the night before Munich — for Zelensky, “a country that launches such attacks does not want peace.” But also…
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ii) Zelensky was responding to US messages (including from Vance) suggesting that “decades of the old relationship between Europe and America are ending.”
Yet Zelensky was careful in his word-choice, arguing not so much that Europe should now go it alone, but rather “make America want to stand with a strong Europe.” Speaking of which…
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“To be very candid with you, I do not speak for the President of the United States, the President speaks for himself” — US General Kellogg, Special Envoy for Russia and Ukraine
This was an intriguing remark because after US envoys like Vance, Hegseth, and Kellogg all variously foreshadowed a reduced US security presence in Europe, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio then signed the latest G7 statement, which still sounded much more like the US of yore, reaffirming “unwavering support for Ukraine in defending its freedom, sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity.”
Vance seemingly alluded to this in his interview with the WSJ, saying “we believe in free speech, and even people who work in our government…They're speaking for themselves.”
But the net result, according to various European officials we spoke to, has been a moment of confusion across the continent — they’re not sure which US envoy to listen to.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
You may notice we haven’t included any quotes from an EU leader above, and it’s not for a lack of trying, believe us. We listened to the speeches, worked the corridors, and took careful notes like the good (ex)diplomats we are. But rather than any quote we heard, we were struck by something we saw: a delegate simply stopped taking notes halfway through the speech by the EU’s Ursula von der Leyen. Why? Because it was more or less the same speech von der Leyen and colleagues have delivered for years.
And that’s a little jarring at this point because, while Europe keeps declaring each new development as a wake-up call, the US has now delivered the ultimate wake-up call:
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Defense Secretary Hegseth, for example, essentially just declared that the US can’t protect Europe because it’s gotta focus on China, and
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VP Vance has now hinted that the US might not want to defend Europe given their purported divergence in values.
But whether it’s a case of can’t or won’t, the end result is the same. And yet somehow, everyone still left Munich wondering who’ll now lead Europe’s response.
Also worth noting:
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Lest you think it was all Russia/US, the DR Congo’s Felix Tshisekedi was there too, accusing Rwanda of having “repeatedly provoked” instability. Rwandan defence chief Juvenal Marizamunda then stood up in the audience during question time, arguing “Rwanda has nothing to gain from an unstable DRC.”
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Syria’s foreign minister (al-Shaibani) also spoke on a panel with Turkey’s Hakan Fidan, but this session took a while to fill up — you could take that as evidence that events might’ve somehow already bumped Syria off the front page.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Baku has filed a lawsuit against Armenia over alleged environmental damage in the Nagorno-Karabakh territory Baku seized back from Armenia in 2023. Armenia rejects the claims, and while both neighbours say they want peace, progress has been slow and their border remains heavily militarised.
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🇫🇷 France: Police are on the hunt for a man who threw a grenade into a crowded bar in Grenoble, injuring 15. Authorities say this doesn’t appear to have been ideologically motivated, and instead might’ve been linked to organised crime bosses who’ve been vying for control in the area.
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🇦🇺 Australia: Ahead of an election due before May, the government has matched an opposition pledge to ban foreign investors from buying existing homes. It’s an attempt to tackle soaring house prices, but 2023 figures suggest it’ll cover only ~$1B out of Australia’s ~$400B in annual property transactions.
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🇺🇾 Uruguay: Outgoing centre-right leader Luis Lacalle Pou has refused to invite the authoritarian leaders of Venezuela, Cuba, and Nicaragua to the inauguration of his successor, Yamandú Orsi. The left-leaning incoming party had wanted to invite all governments with whom Uruguay maintains formal diplomatic ties.
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🇩🇯 Djibouti: The African Union’s 55 members have elected Djibouti’s foreign minister, Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, as the next chair of the bloc’s secretariat. Defeating bids from Kenya’s former PM (Odinga) and Madagascar’s former FM (Randriamandrato), Youssouf now faces the daunting task of steering the AU through crises like the wars in Sudan and DR Congo.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
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British superstar and Beatles drummer Ringo Starr has just made the shocking confession that he’s never eaten pizza.
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A Canadian owl conservationist has run a Valentine’s Day program offering to feed his birds with rats named after your ex in exchange for a donation.
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A humpback whale off the coast of Chile has swallowed — then decided to spit out — a Venezuelan kayaker, who described the experience as “slimy”.
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Poking fun at Donald Trump’s Greenland plans, more than 200,000 Danes have now signed a petition offering to buy California.
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And a Welsh man is now considering buying an entire landfill to search for his long-lost hard drive, which he says contains Bitcoin worth over $600M.
SPOT THE DIFFERENCE
Spot any differences?
The US State Department has quietly removed a line on its website which previously emphasised that the US “does not support Taiwanese independence”. Absent that line, and instead including new references to a Taiwan-Pentagon collaboration and a promise to support Taiwan's membership in international bodies "where applicable", State’s text now suggests a more assertive US stance in support of Taiwan.
Something similar actually occurred back in 2022, when the Biden administration deleted and then reinstated a line distancing the US from Taiwanese independence.
DAILY POLL
Which aspect of VP Vance's speech surprised you the most? |
Last Thursday’s poll: Do you think Ukraine will keep fighting for its lost territory?
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ ❌ No, without US backing it can't (45%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💪 Yes, this is existential for Ukraine and wider Europe (53%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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💪 L.C: “Failure to recover some of the lost territory will only confirm to Russia (and China?) that there is little or no barrier to continued territorial expansion.”
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❌ M.A: “Russia has improved its performance since the start of the war and if American support stops it is simply not viable to continue.”
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💪 A.S: “As a Ukrainian, I can’t imagine this changes anything on the ground. Ukrainians will not accept any loss of territory or a return to ‘business as usual’ with Russia.”
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✍️ V: “Whatever agreement there will be, it will continue to be undermined by Russia. And Ukrainians in those occupied areas will continue to resist in many ways. Many years of unrest are still to come.”
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