๐ŸŒ The role of Russian intel in Ukraine


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Hi there Intriguer.ย What is it with spies and hotels? In an exercise gone awry, some trainee spooks raided the wrong hotel room in Boston last week, detaining the poor soul inside before realising their mistake. One might hope the startled guest at least got a discounted continental breakfast downstairs.

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Todayโ€™s briefing is a 4.6 min read:

  • ๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ The role of Russian intelligence in Ukraine.

  • ๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉย Indonesia charges ahead with elections.

  • โž• Plus: Europe and China trade a lot, how the papers are covering Chinese military drills around Taiwan, and why palm oil is more important than you think.

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๐ŸŽง Todayโ€™s Intrigue Outloud:ย Go deeper on the French presidentโ€™s visit to China, and the damaging US intelligence leaks.

๐Ÿ—บ๏ธ AROUND THE WORLD
  1. ๐Ÿ‡จ๐Ÿ‡บย Cuba: Banks in Cuba will now accept cash deposits in US dollars again after a ban was surprisingly lifted on Monday. Reversing the ban is expected to ease the countryโ€™s current economic crisis.

  2. ๐Ÿ‡ฌ๐Ÿ‡งย United Kingdom: Anne Keast-Butler has been named the first woman to lead Britainโ€™s signals intelligence agency. Currently at the UKโ€™s domestic intelligence agency, Keast-Butley will start her new role in May.

  3. ๐Ÿ‡ต๐Ÿ‡ญย Philippines: The US and Philippines launched their largest-ever joint military exercises yesterday (Tuesday). The annual activity involves nearly 18,000 troops and, for the first time, includes a live-fire drill in the South China Sea.

  4. ๐Ÿ‡ฐ๐Ÿ‡ชย Kenya: SpaceX will launch Kenyaโ€™s first operational satellite into orbit this week, providing agricultural data to support food security. The satellite was developed by engineers from the Kenya Space Agency.

  5. ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐Ÿ‡ฆย Saudi Arabia: Warring Saudi and Houthi rebel leaders met for the first time in public on Sunday. The UNโ€™s envoy to Yemen says this is the nearest Yemen has been to peace since fighting started in 2015.

๐Ÿ‡ท๐Ÿ‡บ RUSSIA | INTELLIGENCE

New report details the role of Russian intelligence in Ukraine

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Briefly: A report by the Royal United Services Institute, the worldโ€™s oldest defence and security think tank, reveals new details around the role of Russian intelligence in the Russo-Ukraine war.

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Think tank reports can be drier than a KFC biscuit. But this one, based on interviews with intelligence agencies, contains some pretty intriguing details:

  • In mid 2021, Russiaโ€™s moles in Ukraine started taking โ€˜holidaysโ€™ to Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt to receive orders from their Moscow handlers

  • Russia was so confident in the success of its planned invasion, it even rented apartments for its special forces in Kyiv

  • And as the invasion began, all Ukrainian general officers received a text or call from Russia urging them not to resist, to minimise bloodshed

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But as the olโ€™ saying goes, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. As Russia started taking punches, its intel plans quickly unravelled.

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Intrigueโ€™s take: There are a few key takeaways here. First, this report shows how, absent a culture of transparency or accountability, autocracies like Russia will often just tell the boss what they want to hear.

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Second, armed with bad data, autocrats like Putin are more likely to make bad decisions (such as invading a neighbour). And other countries are less able to deter those bad decisions, given theyโ€™re based on such unrealistic expectations.

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But third, the report says a Russian spy chief did ask Putin to delay the invasion. And in the kind of understatement that only a think tank could muster, it says Putinโ€™s decision to proceed anyway โ€œmay be understood as a strategic error of judgementโ€.

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Also worth noting:

  • The report says Russian intel provided $3-4M per month in funding to a Ukrainian politician (Andriy Derkach) to establish a pro-Russia network in Ukraine.

  • The reportโ€™s conclusion claims Russian intelligence is now attempting to destabilise Ukraineโ€™s neighbour, Moldova.

๐Ÿ“ฐ GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES

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How different newspapers covered: Three days of Chinese military drills simulating a blockade on Taiwan, in response to Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US Speaker Kevin McCarthy last week.

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Links: Arab News, SCMP, Clarin

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Todayโ€™s briefing is sponsored byย Canva

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๐Ÿ‡ฎ๐Ÿ‡ฉ INDONESIA | POLITICS

President Joko Widodo (centre) will make way for new political leadership in 2024.

Indonesians rally to hold elections in 2024 as planned

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Briefly: A court in Indonesia has this week overturned a ruling by a lower court last month that wouldโ€™ve delayed the countryโ€™s upcoming election by two years. Elections will now take place on 14 February 2024 as originally planned.

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And thereโ€™s a lot to decide between now and then. Sitting President Joko Widodo, whoโ€™s presided over a ten-year period of mostly steady growth and infrastructure development, is term-limited and canโ€™t run. Polls show a tight race between Widodoโ€™s own Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the right-leaning populist Gerindra Party, which came second in the countryโ€™s two previous elections.

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But despite the tight race, politicians and voters across the political spectrum joined in opposing the lower courtโ€™s attempt to delay voting day. Even Widodo, whose supporters in the legislature floated the idea of extending his term, strongly opposed the decision and promised to vacate the presidency.

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Intrigueโ€™s take: Democracy is usually hard-won and easily lost. Indonesians lived through decades of authoritarian rule until the fall of President Suhartoโ€™s New Order regime in 1998. The broad outcry against the lower courtโ€™s initial ruling suggests Indonesians wonโ€™t give up their democratic rights without a fight.

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Also worth noting:

  • PDI-Pโ€™s possible candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, has slid in the polls after his comments against Israeli participation in the Under 20 FIFA World Cup were blamed for Indonesia losing the Cupโ€™s hosting rights.

  • Indonesia has charted an independent foreign policy under President Widodo, seeking to avoid getting too close to either China or the US.

๐Ÿ‘€ EXTRA INTRIGUE

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Palm oil is more important than you think. Here are some stats to explain why:

  • 76.61 – the volume of the global palm oil market in 2022, measured in million metric tonnes.

  • 85 – the percentage of global palm oil supply originating from Indonesia and Malaysia alone.

  • 6 million – the acres of forest lost to palm oil cultivation on the island of Borneo between 2000 and 2018.

  • 4.5 – the percentage of Indonesiaโ€™s GDP made up by the palm oil sector.

  • 2022 – the year Indonesia temporarily banned palm oil exports, with impacts felt around the world.

๐Ÿ“Š CHART OF THE DAY

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Even as European leaders sort out their political relationship with China, the trade relationship continues to deepen. In fact, China is Europeโ€™s largest source of imported goods, and its third largest destination for exported goods.

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A big thanks to our friends at Genuine Impact for this awesome chart. Be sure to check them out and download their free app!

๐Ÿ—ณ๏ธ POLL TIME!

What lesson do you think we should draw from the role of Russian intel in Ukraine?

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

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Yesterdayโ€™s poll: What do you think of Macron’s China strategy?

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๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ โš–๏ธ It’s good, Europe needs to chart its own course (9%)

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๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ๐ŸŸฉ ๐Ÿ‘Ž It’s terrible, and plays right into China’s hands (55%)

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๐ŸŸจ๐ŸŸจโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ ๐Ÿค It doesn’t matter, France doesn’t have much sway (33%)

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โฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธโฌœ๏ธ โœ๏ธ Other (write in!)

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Your two cents:

  • โš–๏ธ A.L: โ€œFrance, and at a greater scale Europe, has always been reliant on the US. By making such a trip, Macron lets the Americans know that they’re not the only power.โ€

  • ๐Ÿ‘Ž E.W: โ€œNoble sentiment, poor results. Macron risks losing more than Beijing is likely to provide.โ€

  • โœ๏ธ F.M: โ€œWith all eyes on France’s (literal) domestic dumpster fire, China is looking to sow division through diplomacy. A valiant international effort from Macron, but as always diplomacy in China is a double edged sword when there is any sign of weakness. โ€