🌍 The role of Russian intel in Ukraine

🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇨🇺 Cuba: Banks in Cuba will now accept cash deposits in US dollars again after a ban was surprisingly lifted on Monday. Reversing the ban is expected to ease the country’s current economic crisis.

2. 🇬🇧 United Kingdom: Anne Keast-Butler has been named the first woman to lead Britain’s signals intelligence agency. Currently at the UK’s domestic intelligence agency, Keast-Butley will start her new role in May.

3. 🇵🇭 Philippines: The US and Philippines launched their largest-ever joint military exercises yesterday (Tuesday). The annual activity involves nearly 18,000 troops and, for the first time, includes a live-fire drill in the South China Sea.

4. 🇰🇪 Kenya: SpaceX will launch Kenya’s first operational satellite into orbit this week, providing agricultural data to support food security. The satellite was developed by engineers from the Kenya Space Agency.

5. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Warring Saudi and Houthi rebel leaders met for the first time in public on Sunday. The UN’s envoy to Yemen says this is the nearest Yemen has been to peace since fighting started in 2015.

🇷🇺 RUSSIA | INTELLIGENCE

New report details the role of Russian intelligence in Ukraine

Briefly: A report by the Royal United Services Institute, the world’s oldest defence and security think tank, reveals new details around the role of Russian intelligence in the Russo-Ukraine war.

Think tank reports can be drier than a KFC biscuit. But this one, based on interviews with intelligence agencies, contains some pretty intriguing details:

• In mid 2021, Russia’s moles in Ukraine started taking ‘holidays’ to Turkey, Cyprus and Egypt to receive orders from their Moscow handlers

• Russia was so confident in the success of its planned invasion, it even rented apartments for its special forces in Kyiv

• And as the invasion began, all Ukrainian general officers received a text or call from Russia urging them not to resist, to minimise bloodshed

But as the ol’ saying goes, everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouth. As Russia started taking punches, its intel plans quickly unravelled.

Intrigue’s take: There are a few key takeaways here. First, this report shows how, absent a culture of transparency or accountability, autocracies like Russia will often just tell the boss what they want to hear.

Second, armed with bad data, autocrats like Putin are more likely to make bad decisions (such as invading a neighbour). And other countries are less able to deter those bad decisions, given they’re based on such unrealistic expectations.

But third, the report says a Russian spy chief did ask Putin to delay the invasion. And in the kind of understatement that only a think tank could muster, it says Putin’s decision to proceed anyway “may be understood as a strategic error of judgement”.

Also worth noting:

• The report says Russian intel provided $3-4M per month in funding to a Ukrainian politician (Andriy Derkach) to establish a pro-Russia network in Ukraine.

• The report’s conclusion claims Russian intelligence is now attempting to destabilise Ukraine’s neighbour, Moldova.

Today’s briefing is sponsored by Canva

🇮🇩 INDONESIA | POLITICS

Indonesians rally to hold elections in 2024 as planned

Briefly: A court in Indonesia has this week overturned a ruling by a lower court last month that would’ve delayed the country’s upcoming election by two years. Elections will now take place on 14 February 2024 as originally planned.

And there’s a lot to decide between now and then. Sitting President Joko Widodo, who’s presided over a ten-year period of mostly steady growth and infrastructure development, is term-limited and can’t run. Polls show a tight race between Widodo’s own Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the right-leaning populist Gerindra Party, which came second in the country’s two previous elections.

But despite the tight race, politicians and voters across the political spectrum joined in opposing the lower court’s attempt to delay voting day. Even Widodo, whose supporters in the legislature floated the idea of extending his term, strongly opposed the decision and promised to vacate the presidency.

Intrigue’s take: Democracy is usually hard-won and easily lost. Indonesians lived through decades of authoritarian rule until the fall of President Suharto’s New Order regime in 1998. The broad outcry against the lower court’s initial ruling suggests Indonesians won’t give up their democratic rights without a fight.

Also worth noting:

• PDI-P’s possible candidate, Ganjar Pranowo, has slid in the polls after his comments against Israeli participation in the Under 20 FIFA World Cup were blamed for Indonesia losing the Cup’s hosting rights.

• Indonesia has charted an independent foreign policy under President Widodo, seeking to avoid getting too close to either China or the US.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

Palm oil is more important than you think. Here are some stats to explain why:

• 76.61 – the volume of the global palm oil market in 2022, measured in million metric tonnes.

• 85 – the percentage of global palm oil supply originating from Indonesia and Malaysia alone.

• 6 million – the acres of forest lost to palm oil cultivation on the island of Borneo between 2000 and 2018.

• 4.5 – the percentage of Indonesia’s GDP made up by the palm oil sector.

• 2022 – the year Indonesia temporarily banned palm oil exports, with impacts felt around the world.

📊 CHART OF THE DAY

Even as European leaders sort out their political relationship with China, the trade relationship continues to deepen. In fact, China is Europe’s largest source of imported goods, and its third largest destination for exported goods.

A big thanks to our friends at Genuine Impact for this awesome chart. Be sure to check them out and download their free app!

🗳️ POLL TIME!

Yesterday’s poll: What do you think of Macron's China strategy?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ⚖️ It's good, Europe needs to chart its own course (9%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 It's terrible, and plays right into China's hands (55%)

🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤐 It doesn't matter, France doesn't have much sway (33%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!)

Your two cents:

• ⚖️ A.L: “France, and at a greater scale Europe, has always been reliant on the US. By making such a trip, Macron lets the Americans know that they're not the only power.”

• 👎 E.W: “Noble sentiment, poor results. Macron risks losing more than Beijing is likely to provide.”

• ✍️ F.M: “With all eyes on France's (literal) domestic dumpster fire, China is looking to sow division through diplomacy. A valiant international effort from Macron, but as always diplomacy in China is a double edged sword when there is any sign of weakness. ”