🌍 The second US-Pacific Island Summit

Hi there Intriguer. Showbiz and geopolitics do occasionally mix: Min Yoon-gi, a member of Korea’s boyband phenomenon ‘BTS’, has just begun his mandatory military service. He’s the band’s third member to enlist.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🤝 The US-Pacific Islands Summit is back.

• 🌊 Ethiopia’s new dam is a problem for Egypt.

• ➕ Plus: Some huge asteroid samples just dropped, how the papers are covering accusations that a US senator took bribes from Egypt, and why Cubans are tweeting #NoAlTerrorismo.

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: Chinese President Xi Jinping is reportedly considering a trip to South Korea, his first since 2014. He made the comments to South Korea’s prime minister, who was in China for the Asian Games in a bid to improve strained Seoul-Beijing ties.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Ukraine's special forces have said Friday's missile attack on Russia’s naval HQ in Crimea killed Moscow's top admiral in the region. This is reportedly the first admiral killed in combat since WWII.

3. 🇵🇭 Philippines: Manila has removed a floating barrier in the South China Sea, claiming the China-installed structure violated Filipino fishing rights. The area (Scarborough Shoal) falls within Manila’s exclusive economic zone, but it’s been under China’s control since 2012.

4. 🇨🇷 Costa Rica: Homicide figures for this year have already surpassed last year’s record, making 2023 Costa Rica’s deadliest year ever. Authorities believe two-thirds of the killings have been due to gangs fighting over control of drug trafficking operations.

5. 🇳🇪 Niger: France will withdraw all its troops from Niger over the next couple of months, following July’s military coup. The announcement follows similar French departures from Mali and Burkina Faso, in 2022 and 2023 respectively.

🤝 Indo-Pacific | Geopolitics

The second US-Pacific Islands Summit wraps up

The second US-Pacific Islands Forum Summit wraps up in Washington today (Tuesday), as President Biden hosts leaders and senior officials from 18 Pacific Island nations.

Here’s what’s on the agenda:

• 🤝 President Biden has formally recognised the Cook Islands (pop: 17,000) and Niue (pop: 1,900), which both get limited recognition around the world in part due to their unique status (e.g., Niueans and Cook Islanders are citizens of New Zealand)

• 🚀 The US and Palau (pop: 18,000) are reportedly discussing deploying US Patriot air defence systems in the Pacific nation

• 💰 The US is also committing $40 million for infrastructure in the region, including for undersea internet cables, and

• 🌎 They’ve announced various climate initiatives, responding to an earlier Pacific declaration that it’s the “single greatest threat to the livelihoods, security, and well-being of the peoples of the Pacific.”

What’s behind all this? The summit’s aim is to show Pacific leaders that they have options, as Beijing continues to build its influence in the region:

• China and Timor Leste (a Pacific Islands Forum observer) just upgraded their bilateral ties over the weekend, and

• The leader of Solomon Islands actually skipped this summit despite being nearby at the UN last week, in a move seen as reflecting his more China-aligned policy (he met President Xi in Beijing this July).

Intrigue's take: So why are two powers competing for influence in some of the world’s smallest and most remote nations?

In part, it’s the same reason powers fought over the islands in WWII: when a rival gets a foothold, it can control vast swathes of the surrounding ocean. The US has long anchored its Pacific security in this kind of island chain strategy, and China has long seen this all as an attempt to ‘contain’ it.

But each side’s success or otherwise will depend on its ability to really hear and respond to the priorities of the Pacific Island nations themselves. That likely explains Biden’s repeated assurances that the US “hears” the Pacific.

Also worth noting:

• The Pacific Island leaders also travelled to Baltimore to watch the Baltimore Ravens play the Indianapolis Colts (the Ravens lost). There are around 200 NFL players with Pacific Island ties.

• Former US president JFK fought in the WWII battle of Guadalcanal, in what is today Solomon Islands. His daughter, the current US ambassador to Australia, retraced JFK’s rescue swim there last month.

• Tuvalu (pop: 11,000) amended its constitution this month. It now includes a new definition of statehood, declaring the nation will continue to exist even if its islands disappear due to rising sea levels.

📰 How newspapers covered…

A US senator indicted on charges he took bribes from Egypt

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🌊 Ethiopia-Egypt | Geopolitics

Ethiopia and Egypt are arguing over a dam

The second round of trilateral negotiations between Egypt, Ethiopia, and Sudan over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) ended on Sunday (24 September) without a breakthrough.

GERD, Africa’s largest dam, sits on the Blue Nile in Ethiopia. At full capacity, the $5B hydro-electric project is projected to double Ethiopia’s output of electricity (half the country’s 120 million people still lack access to electricity).

But Egypt (where 97% of folks rely on the Nile for drinking water) fears the dam will reduce the share of water it gets. It’s repeatedly asked Ethiopia to hit pause until the three neighbours can figure out an arrangement.

Intrigue’s take: This dispute goes to the heart of sovereignty: Ethiopia says it ought to be able to decide what happens within its own borders. Egypt says the Nile is a shared resource, so decisions should be shared, too.

The clock is ticking: the UN says Egypt could run out of water by 2025. And the stakes are high: Sudan’s instability has partly been driven by water scarcity.

Also worth noting:

• Some researchers say GERD could be a net-positive for Nile water levels, due to less evaporation at Egypt’s Lake Nasser.

• According to a 1959 agreement that didn’t involve Ethiopia, Egypt has rights to 75% of the Nile’s water and Sudan has the remainder.

➕ Extra Intrigue

Here’s what folks have been tweeting about around the world.

• 🇨🇺 People in Cuba were using #NoAlTerrorismo after Cuba’s embassy in Washington was hit with Molotov cocktails on Sunday night.

• 🇱🇾 “Attorney General” ("النايب العام") was trending in Libya after the Tripoli-based attorney general ordered the detention of the mayor of Derna, where floods killed thousands earlier this month.

• 🇭🇺 Netizens in Hungary were tweeting about “Canada” after the parliament in Ottawa unwittingly honoured a 98-year-old Ukrainian who had served in a Nazi unit during World War II.

🗳️ Poll time!

📸 Photo of the day

The Osiris-Rex capsule landed safely in the middle of the Utah desert on Sunday. It contained the largest ever asteroid samples, which scientists hope will help shed light on how rocky planets like our own were formed. Japan completed two similar (smaller) missions in 2010 and 2020.

Extra fun fact: The team working on the Osiris-Rex mission included Queen guitarist and astrophysicist Sir Brian May.

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think peak oil is now in sight?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📉 Yes, renewable energy is cheaper, so oil's days are over (23%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🛢️ No, it'll take decades to transform our economies (74%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🛢️ F.I.M: “Emerging economies are not emerging with renewables… and demographics are exploding. We have an energy intensive, addicted world. I don't reckon fossil fuels will begin declining until well after the 2050s.”

• 🛢️ K.P.M: “Alternate technologies are not close to being able to be deployed in scales necessary to have any real impact on oil demand.”

• ✍️ J.W.N: “As an energy source, peak oil might be on the horizon. But crude is the input for so many other products, and a lack of investment in these less-sexy material science areas is stalling progress.”