Plus: Meme of the day
Hi Intriguer. One of the (many) things I became obsessed with during the pandemic was ‘word clouds’.
These are images made of words that together resemble a cloud-like shape – they basically show the relative frequency or importance of words in a text. For example, the words ‘synergy’ and ‘optimise’ might dominate the word cloud of your weekly team check-in calls.
If we did a word cloud for this week’s US intelligence annual threat assessment, it’d feature the words ‘China’ and ‘Russia’ in huge font (with a few others like ‘climate’ micro-dotted on the bottom).
We dive into these and other top US spy concerns in today’s lead story.
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
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US to send weapons package to Ukraine. The US will send a $300M weapons package to Ukraine, using funds it has cobbled together from cost savings. US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan says the measure is “nowhere near enough”. A bill earmarking $60B in military aid for Ukraine remains stalled in Congress. Meanwhile, the EU is expected to agree to a €5B replenishment to its Ukraine war fund later today.
EU says Gaza hunger used as weapon of war. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell has told the UN Security Council that “starvation is being used as a war arm” by Israel in Gaza. Israel says it’s not to blame because it’s allowing some aid through two crossings in the south. A UN World Food Programme land-convoy delivered aid to northern Gaza yesterday for the first time in three weeks.
Putin warns of nuclear readiness. In a pre-election interview, Russian President Vladimir Putin has said Russia’s nuclear forces are ready “from the military-technical viewpoint” if needed, though he doesn’t think the world is headed to a nuclear war. Meanwhile, an overnight Ukrainian drone attack has hit one of Russia’s biggest oil refineries in the Nizhny Novgorod region, some 1000km (600 miles) from the Ukrainian border.
Trump vs Biden confirmed. Major networks now say both President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump have won enough delegates to secure their respective party nominations, setting the stage for a rematch in November.
Japanese rocket explodes on maiden flight. A rocket made by Japanese aerospace company Space One has exploded just seconds into its inaugural flight. The company hoped to be the first Japanese firm to put a satellite into orbit. Space One’s president Masakazu Toyoda joked that “the rocket terminated the flight after judging that the achievement of its mission would be difficult”.
TOP STORY
The seven bluntest lines in the US intelligence community’s annual threat assessment
Canva AI prompt: Annual threat assessment of the US intelligence community
The US intelligence community's annual threat assessment just dropped. And as ever, it contains some pretty blunt assessments on the world.
Here are the seven bluntest lines, and why they matter.
1) "The United States faces an increasingly fragile global order”
This is one of several sobering references to the state of the world, the West’s struggle to respond, and the space left for “rogue governments” to, well, go rogue.
The report also captures the dilemma facing the US, whose responses are often seen by rivals as efforts "to contain or weaken them". To put it another way – in an unstable world, it’s a fine line between deterrence and destabilisation.
2) “An ambitious but anxious China”
That’s the rather neat description of a nation which the spies say is "undercutting US influence" and "driving wedges" between the US and its allies, in an effort to shape a world more favourable to China’s authoritarian system.
At home, the assessment says China’s growth will "almost certainly" keep slowing due to its shrinking population and a collapse in sentiment. And abroad, the report describes China’s efforts "to induce Taiwan to move toward unification" and "intimidate rival claimants" in the South China Sea.
Intriguingly, the text also cites reports that "TikTok accounts run by a PRC propaganda arm" targeted the US 2022 midterms. It’s a big deal, particularly as Congress is due to vote on a bill today (Wednesday) that would force Tiktok’s China-based owner to divest or face a US ban. We'll brief you on that soon.
3) "This deadlock… is increasingly shifting the momentum in Moscow’s favor"
Separate to Russia’s momentum (helped by uncertainty around future US support), the spooks note Russia has suffered its heaviest losses since WWII, with two results: first, it’ll take Moscow years to recover, making it "more reliant on nuclear, cyber, and space capabilities" in the meantime. And second, it means Putin "continues to face domestic challenges, including support from elites".
Interestingly, the report also notes that China is supporting Russia just enough, but "without incurring risks" (ie, Western sanctions). In return, it says China gets cheap gas and greater access to the (resource-rich) Arctic.
4) "Iran is not currently undertaking the key nuclear weapons-development activities necessary to produce a testable nuclear device"
This line, along with a finding that Iranian leaders didn't "orchestrate" or get a heads-up before the Hamas attack against Israel, lowers the report’s heat a little.
Though the document does also highlight Iran’s role in pushing more regional attacks by its proxies; says Iran has still put itself in a "better position" to produce nukes if it so chooses; and Iran "seeks to target former and current U.S. officials" as retaliation for the US assassination of General Qasem Soleimani in 2020. Yikes.
5) "Pyongyang’s cyber forces have matured and are fully capable"
In addition to reiterating Kim Jong-Un’s zero-interest in negotiating away his nuclear program (which he sees as a “guarantor of regime security and national pride”), the report highlights his penchant for "cryptocurrency heists" to raise cash. It’s a reminder that sanctions can produce some unexpected results.
6) "Netanyahu’s viability as leader… may be in jeopardy"
The assessment also says Israel "remains focused on destroying Hamas" though the Gazan population "broadly supports" the group, which will mount "lingering armed resistance… for years to come".
So in addition to questioning an ally’s political future, the report also effectively questions his strategy. This is pretty big stuff coming from a US threat assessment.
7) "The risks to U.S. national security interests are increasing as the physical effects of climate and environmental change intersect with geopolitical tension"
This isn’t a new conclusion, though the US intelligence folks offer some intriguing examples here, including more competition in the Arctic as sea ice recedes, and "climate-related disasters" contributing to increased migration.
Honourable mentions:
The report also says 74 governments have bought commercial spyware (often to spy on dissidents); and "many Coastal West African governments are facing potential coups", in part because competition between world powers will presumably limit any international condemnation.
😦
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Seeing it all condensed into a blunt 42-page package is a little alarming, though there’s really nothing in there too surprising – particularly if you’re a regular Intrigue reader. In fact, we could almost remove some of the jargon, sprinkle in some tasteful lulz, and republish this as an Intrigue special edition.
So another way to think about this is by also looking at the relative emphasis on each challenge: China gets seven pages and Russia gets four, while Iran and North Korea each get three. The Israel-Hamas conflict? It gets one.
Does that match current US priorities? Arguably not. So you could interpret this as a spook’s reminder to Washington’s decision-makers that the US needs to maintain a longer-term strategy while responding to immediate priorities.
Also worth noting:
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The assessment flags the potential for more India-China, India-Pakistan, and Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts ahead.
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In addition, the report highlights the risk of further internal turmoil in the Balkans, Sudan, Ethiopia, The Sahel, Haiti, and Venezuela.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: Russia says it detained a South Korean national on espionage charges at the beginning of the year. Korean media outlets report that the man is a religious worker and was detained due to suspicions he was sharing state secrets with foreign intelligence.
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🇧🇦 Bosnia and Herzegovina: EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen has proposed opening formal accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina, commending the country’s progress since it got EU candidate status. Brussels also decided to start membership talks with Ukraine and Moldova last year, as part of a push for EU enlargement.
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🇵🇼 Palau: President Surangel Whipps Jr. has welcomed the US Senate’s passing of a bill providing $7B over another two decades to US allies Palau, Micronesia, and the Marshall Islands. Delays in the bill, which President Biden signed over the weekend, had forced local governments to cut spending while warning the US would lose influence to China.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: President Javier Milei has rescinded his own 48% pay rise and blamed it on a remuneration system from his predecessor, who then pointed out Milei himself authorised the pay rise in a decree last month. It’s become a scandal for Argentinians now feeling the effects of Milei’s austerity measures.
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🇸🇩 Sudan: The Sudanese military has refused to heed the UN Security Council’s calls for a Ramadan ceasefire, unless the rival Rapid Support Forces (RSF) withdraw from civilian and public sites first. While the RSF faction initially gained ground in the fighting that broke out last year, recent reports suggest the military may now have the momentum.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what we’re reading on women in geopolitics
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2024 Young Women to Watch in International Affairs
Every year our friends over at Young Australians in International Affairs compile a list of the next generation of women making waves in international affairs. Check it out!
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Susana Malcorra (Argentina’s former foreign minister) on women in diplomacy
MAP OF THE DAY
Credits: gocompare.com
Ever wondered what would happen if we suddenly lost access to fossil fuels? It’d be lights-out for a majority of folks in South America, Africa, and Central and Southeast Asia. Curious what’d happen if someone casually switched off nuclear and renewable energy instead? Head on over to gocompare.com to find out.
DAILY POLL
Which of the following do you think is the greatest external threat to the US? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think it's helpful to take a 'peace at any cost' approach as a conflict mediator?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, it'll pressure the warring parties to end hostilities ASAP (17%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, it could be unjust to one of the parties (80%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
Your two cents:
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👎 J.L.P: “Will a peace last if it’s achieved at a higher than is fair cost to one party?”
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👎 E.K.H: “War is terrible, but there are things that are worse, like oppression or annihilation. I don't think the Pope was wrong to say it though, having a ‘peace at any cost’ voice in the conversation helps everyone clarify exactly how much the war is worth to them.”
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👍 F.H: “It depends who the mediator is acting on behalf of – the warring parties or the multitudes suffering in between them.”
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✍️ S.J.P: “Peace at any price yes, provided the international community supports the weaker side.”