Plus: Photo of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The US and China play ball on fentanyl |
2️⃣ A fugitive separatist returns to Spain? |
3️⃣ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I got a jump-scare over the weekend. It happened when I was leisurely driving the Intrigue crew back to DC after our retreat in the Chesapeake Bay: windows down, corn fields rolling, and Bruce Springsteen Americana blasting to my very accommodating European colleagues.
All of a sudden, we’d whizzed past a huge sign that displayed the number of opioid deaths in the state of Maryland just this year, which was a sobering reminder of the opioid crisis across the US.
So, China’s move to regulate some of the ingredients that go into fentanyl will be welcome news to many. Let’s dig into it in today’s top story.
Taylor Swift concerts cancelled due to terrorism threat.
Local organisers have cancelled three Vienna concerts by pop star Taylor Swift, after the Austrian government confirmed two people had been arrested on suspicion of planning a terror attack targeting her Eras Tour. The suspects apparently had links to ISIS and had become radicalised online.
Chile steel-maker suspends production.
The largest Chilean steel producer has suspended production indefinitely, citing “the intensification of Chinese dumping”. Chile imposed tariffs on China-made steel bars in April, but Huachipato insists the measures were insufficient. Steel is a key input for copper production (which Chile leads).
EU criticises Israeli minister’s statement on Gaza starvation.
The EU, UK, and France have asked the Israeli government to distance itself from the words of Israel’s finance minister, Bezalel Smotrich, who in a speech earlier this week stated: “no one in the world will allow us to starve two million people, even though it might be justified and moral in order to free the hostages”.
Yunus returns to lead Bangladesh.
Nobel Peace laureate Muhammad Yunus (84) has just touched down in Dhaka to lead an interim government towards fresh elections, after weeks of tumultuous student-led protests forced Prime Minister Hasina to flee the country in a helicopter. Yunus says he’ll be guided on next steps by the students.
Powerful earthquakes hit Japan.
Authorities have issued a tsunami warning after a 7.1 earthquake hit southern Japan earlier today (Thursday). No significant damage has been reported so far.
TOP STORY
Why did China just agree to work with the US on fentanyl?
It’s not often we get to cover a positive story these days, particularly when it comes to the veritable dumpster fire that is US-China relations.
But yesterday (Wednesday), the White House made an announcement that left us feeling just a little warm and fuzzy – like, 0.000001% warm and 0.000002% fuzzy: China has agreed to subject three key China-made precursor chemicals used in the manufacturing of fentanyl to “additional regulation and control”.
National Security Council spokesperson Sean Savett even called it a “valuable step forward”.
Fentanyl?
Our US readers will know that fentanyl is a synthetic opioid that’s:
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Ultra-potent (80 to 100 times more-so than morphine) and
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Ultra-low-cost (the folks at Reuters found they could make three million pills – worth $3M – using an internet connection and $3k).
Fentanyl has had a legitimate pain relief role for decades, but its potency and cost have now enabled the drug to wreak havoc across the US, in two ways:
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First in terms of public health, driving 100,000 overdose deaths per year, and
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Second in terms of national security, with organised crime thriving off its ability to supply the US market.
So… the US has long been struggling to stem the flow.
And what’s this got to do with China?
A lot of the finished product used to enter the US from China, until Beijing slapped a wide-ranging ban on the drug and its variants in 2019.
The ban ‘worked’ in slashing the amount of China-made fentanyl smuggled into the US, but organised crime did what it always does: it pivoted. So instead of importing the finished product, it imported the ingredients (precursors).
And most of those precursor chemicals are made in China then shipped to labs in Mexico, where syndicates synthesise them into fentanyl and smuggle them into the US via illicit established channels.
The very nature of fentanyl makes this supply chain hard to stop: the entire annual US supply could reportedly fit in the back of a couple of Ford F-150s.
So… will this new US-China pact work?
We started this piece feeling all warm and fuzzy, but it’s a liiiiittle harder to end it that way. Here’s why:
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Many of fentanyl’s precursor chemicals are legit inputs for perfumes, dyes, rubbers, and insecticides, so an outright ban isn’t viable
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The criminal supply chain can also just tweak the chemical structure of any key restricted substances to evade specific bans, and
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The transnational nature of the supply chain means it’s often a criminal result built on lots of legal steps, making it hard to prosecute.
So you can bet organised crime will again pivot. But honestly? That’s the cat-and-mouse story of tackling organised crime: it’s a path rather than a destination.
And in the meantime, we’ll print out the White House’s US-China announcement and just nuzzle into it, breathing in its musk, all as a reminder that even staunch rivals can – and must – still find a way to work together.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Of course, this all begs the question… why did China agree to place restrictions on its own vast and highly-lucrative chemicals industry, to help a rival like the US deal with its own drug problem?
We have a few theories:
First, this was all imposing a reputational cost on China, particularly among US lawmakers who will shape America’s evolving response on issues where China can really feel pain (like China’s access to US markets and tech).
Second, the issue had already evolved beyond just US-China ties in 2022, when a top UN narcotics body added key fentanyl precursors to its list of substances that all members (including China) must now regulate.
And third, we’ve written before about how Xi Jinping has a real incentive to tactically stabilise ties with the US while he seeks to grapple with the growing list of economic (and therefore political) challenges he’s facing back home.
All three above probably played a role in Beijing’s decision to play ball, and all arguably offer insights for anyone hoping to shape China’s choices ahead.
Also worth noting:
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Last year, the Biden Administration added China to the US list of the world’s major drug-producing countries.
Diplomat salary report
Nobody gets into diplomacy for the money. At least, they shouldn’t. Or at least, we didn’t.
Most pursue a career in diplomacy because they want to serve their country, see the world, and do meaningful work. And you can’t put a price on that, right? Wrong! We’ve just compiled the first-ever comparison of diplomat salaries across the G20.
Why? Mostly for the LoLs. But also, the world is getting a little crazy, so it’s worth asking the question: are our diplomatic services still attracting and retaining the best talent, to help us avert disaster?
It’s free to read for all Intrigue subscribers!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇦🇿 Azerbaijan: Baku has reportedly agreed to defer its demand for a 'Zangezur Corridor' through southern Armenia, removing a significant obstacle to signing a peace agreement. The proposed transport corridor through Armenian territory aims to link mainland Azerbaijan to its Nakhchivan exclave.
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🇪🇸 Spain: Catalonian opposition figure Carles Puigdemont, who’s been in exile since 2017 after leading the region’s unconstitutional bid to secede from Spain, has said he plans to attend the plenary session of the Catalan parliament today (Thursday). It’s unclear what exactly he has in mind, given Spain still has a warrant out for his arrest.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: A constitutional court has ordered the dissolution of the Move Forward Party, a reformist movement that was attempting to amend strict laws protecting Thailand’s monarchy from criticism. The party snagged the most seats in the 2023 election, prompting Thailand’s spooked royalist establishment to respond with a crackdown.
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🇵🇦 Panama: Panama's border police have announced the arrest of 15 individuals suspected of facilitating the movement of Chinese migrants through the Darien Gap. President José Raúl Mulino took office on July 1st with a promise to halt irregular migration through the Gap, including by returning migrants to their countries of origin.
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🇹🇷 Turkey: After weeks of escalating rhetoric, Turkey has filed a request to join South Africa's genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) regarding Israel's actions in Gaza. Colombia, Nicaragua, Spain, Libya, the State of Palestine, and Mexico have also sought to intervene in the ICJ case.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what’s been happening in other worlds
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Travel: Colombian lawmakers are debating whether to ban souvenirs depicting the late drug kingpin, Pablo Escobar.
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Science: NASA’s Mars rover has found what could be evidence of life on the planet… but we’re talking molecules rather than Martians.
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Sports: Nine US figure-skaters finally got their gold medals for the 2022 Winter Olympics, after a Russian figure-skater’s positive doping test meant no medals were awarded at the time.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Photo courtesy of the Intrigue team
You’ve seen the White House press room hundreds of times before, right?
But before ducking out for our team retreat in Maryland last week, we saw the press room up close after scoring a private tour of the White House. And in addition to snapping the above pic, we also collected four fun facts we thought you might enjoy:
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The White House press pool takes its name from the fact it was actually built over an old pool, which is still there beneath the briefing room!
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On the ceiling above the Oval Office is the only US seal with 50 eight-point (rather than five point) stars. That’s because an Italian sculptor took some creative liberties when Alaska and Hawaii first joined the US.
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The White House has 412 doors, which… seems a lot?
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Plus, there’s an official ‘Receptionist of the United States’ (aka ROTUS), who’s in charge of welcoming the president’s guests.
DAILY POLL
What do you think the US should do to help confront the opioid crisis? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think Yunus can bring Bangladesh back from the brink?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📈 Maybe, he's a statesman and the people's choice (61%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ ❌ No, the country's problems run deeper (38%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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📈 D.D: “Yunus is controversial, but his heart is in the right place. He may not be able to pull it all together, but there is no one else with better chances on the stage right now.”
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❌ C.F: “Until the endemic corruption in Bangladesh is eliminated, the country will suffer politically.”
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✍️ K.F: “He needs to set limited goals and a date when he will definitely leave office.”
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📈 M.G: “If Yunus can truly serve as a transition to a civilian government, it's possible.”
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