Plus: Punch-up of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ US and China lay out their visions of the future |
2️⃣ Germany cuts all new aid to Rwanda |
3️⃣ Smoke bombs in Serbian parliament |
Hi Intriguer. It’s rare to have the two major power centres of the world deliver their visions of the future within minutes of each other, but that’s what happened in Washington and Beijing on Tuesday. We dive into President Trump and Premier Li Qiang’s surprisingly similar policy announcements in our top story today.
We’re also sending good vibes to our managing editor, Jeremy, and everyone else affected as Tropical Cyclone Alfred bears down on the east coast of Australia.
Despite Jeremy being off the tools today, any complaints about today’s edition should still be directed to him, but maybe wait a few days until he dries out.
P.S. We’ll be at Right Proper Brewing in DC tonight for a foreign aid networking happy hour!
US pauses intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
National Security Adviser Mike Waltz confirmed on Wednesday that the US has halted intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The announcement follows the US’s decision to also pause military aid to Ukraine. Meanwhile, top US officials have reportedly held talks with Ukrainian opposition figures.
Macron mulls widening of France’s nuclear umbrella.
EU leaders are meeting for an emergency summit on Thursday (today) to discuss ramping up Europe’s defence spending in light of Ukraine’s evolving security outlook. President Macron said he would open a debate on expanding the French nuclear weapons umbrella to include its European allies.
White House confirms direct talks with Hamas.
The US has reportedly been holding direct secret talks with Hamas, breaking a longstanding policy to not negotiate with groups it has designated as terrorist organisations. President Trump also issued what he called a “last warning” to Hamas and people in Gaza.
Trump exempts automakers from tariffs.
US automakers won a one-month reprieve from 25% tariffs imposed on Mexico and Canada just one day after the import levies came into effect. The automotive industry has lobbied hard for an exemption, due to its heavily-integrated supply chain across the three countries.
South Korean jet accidentally bombs village.
The South Korean Air Force has issued an apology after a fighter jet erroneously released eight bombs outside of their designated targeting area during training. The bombs landed on a small village and injured 15 civilians.
TOP STORY
The US and China laid out their visions of the future this week. They were remarkably similar.
US President Donald Trump (L) and Chinese Premier Li Qiang (R).
Just minutes before President Trump was set to deliver his State of the Union to Congress on Tuesday night, Chinese Premier Li Qiang stepped up to the mic in Beijing to unveil the somewhat less sexy-sounding ‘Report on the Work of the Government’.
The State of the Union and the opening of the ‘Two Sessions’, China’s hottest political event of the year, at the same time? Call it Barbenheimer for political news junkies.
In any event, the parallels between Washington and Beijing’s announcements revealed more than just coincidental timing.
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🇨🇳 Beijing's playbook
Beijing is aiming for “around 5%” GDP growth this year. Putting aside long-standing questions about the reliability of Chinese economic data, the goal is ambitious, given the IMF's more modest 4.6% projection. And that’s before we consider President Trump’s latest 10% tariff on Chinese imports.
Nevertheless, China has a reason for optimism: it says it beat last year's target, logging 5.4% growth, though Li admitted that "adverse changes in the international environment" could make 2025 a much bumpier ride.
Beijing is also planning to increase its defence spending to $245B, marking a 7.2% increase year-on-year. That will make China's military funding second only to Washington's (~$850B per year).
There were no surprises on the ‘Taiwan question’ — "We will firmly advance the cause of China's reunification and work with our fellow Chinese in Taiwan to realise the glorious cause of the rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," Li announced.
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🇺🇸 Meanwhile in Washington…
Calling the Chinese economic playbook unfair to the US, President Trump told the Joint Session of Congress on Tuesday that reciprocal tariffs on Chinese goods will kick in on 2 April, noting that he avoided 1 April to make sure people knew he was serious.
Trump added that "whatever they tax us, we will tax them," because “we’ve been ripped off by nearly every country on earth.”
The S&P 500 has retreated to about where it was before President Trump’s election in November in large part due to uncertainty around tariffs. But Trump, who is known to take cues from stock market fluctuations, is so far sticking to his tariff-forward approach, including 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada.
President Trump also reiterated his plan to boost defence. He doubled down on building an 'Iron Dome for America', a reference to Israel's rocket defence system, as well as announcing a new office of shipbuilding, apparently prompted by seeing images of rust-streaked US Navy ships:
“I jokingly say President Trump has texted me numerous times very late at night, sometimes after one [o’clock] in the morning about rusty ships or ships in a yard, asking me what am I doing about it,” Navy Secretary nominee John Phelan told Congress.
Lastly, there was a surprise on the ‘Greenland question’ — “We strongly support [the people' of Greenland’s] right to determine their own future… but we need Greenland for national security and I think… one way or another, we’re going to get it.”
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
First things first — our hearts go out to the 56,865 Greenlanders who find themselves suddenly facing the prospect of tipping 20% for a cup of takeaway coffee or needing to figure out what the heck a fluid ounce is.
Now, Trump (probably) isn’t as serious about “acquiring” Greenland as Li Qiang and Xi Jinping are about “reunifying” Taiwan, but the similarities in how Washington and Beijing see the future are interesting.
Both countries are:
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Spending big to prop up growth in a deglobalising world
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Rebuilding key industries with a view to achieving economic independence in critical sectors that had been overlooked during the ‘good times’
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And flexing their military muscles to foster nationalism at home and project strength abroad.
With the US, China, and Europe all pledging to increase their military capabilities, it's no wonder it's a good time to be in the weapons business.
Also worth noting:
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Elbridge Colby, the nominee for the No. 3. spot at the Pentagon and a longtime advocate for countering China, endured a difficult Congressional confirmation hearing on Tuesday. Republican Senator Roger Wicker warned the US “cannot simply pivot” militarily between regions of the world.
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If you’re a glutton for punishment, here’s an English translation of the Report on the Work of the Government.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇵🇰 Pakistan: A twin suicide bomb attack killed at least 12 people at a Pakistani military base in northwestern Pakistan. A group affiliated with the Pakistani Taliban has since claimed responsibility.
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🇸🇪 Sweden: Authorities are investigating the suspected sabotage of a water pump on the island of Gotland in the Baltic Sea. The pump outage is the latest in a series of, shall we say, eyebrow-raising incidents involving damaged undersea cables in the Baltic Sea.
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🇮🇩 Indonesia: President Prabowo Subianto has ordered a one-off cut of $19B, or ~8.5%, of the annual state budget to finance his new sovereign wealth fund, ‘Danantara’. Student-led protests dubbed ‘Dark Indonesia’ (in response to Prabowo’s Golden Indonesia initiative) have sprung up.
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🇨🇴 Colombia: President Gustavo Petro announced a new initiative to eradicate 25,000 hectares of coca plantations in 140 days, as a way to cut off funding to armed groups in the northeast. A renewed offensive by armed groups is threatening to blow up Petro’s ‘total peace’ plan.
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🇷🇼 Rwanda: Germany has stopped all new aid to Rwanda and will review its current commitments in response to the country’s role in the ongoing conflict in neighbouring DR Congo. International bodies have accused Rwanda of backing the M23 armed group, which is battling the Congolese army for territory in resource-rich eastern DRC.
FROM OUR FRIENDS
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile, in other worlds:
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Science: A company working to bring back the woolly mammoth has announced it was successful in creating woolly mice. We admit they look mighty cute.
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Tech: Over a million electronic gadgets, including TV streaming boxes, tablets, and projectors running on Android software have been infected by malware, which allows scammers to access them remotely.
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Sports: Tennis no.1 Jannik Sinner will not attend the Indian Wells Open in California as part of his three-month suspension for a positive doping test.
PARLIAMENTARY PUNCH-UP OF THE DAY
The banner reads ‘Serbia has risen so the regime would fall’. Credits: parlament.rs
Think Congressman Al Green caused a commotion during the State of the Union on Tuesday? Amateur.
We give you the Serbian opposition lawmakers who set off flares and smoke grenades during the parliament’s first day of spring session, in support of widespread anti-corruption protests.
The country has been shaken by months of student-led protests triggered by the structural collapse of a train station last year, which left 15 dead. Since then, the movement has gained traction, forcing the PM and several top government officials to resign.
DAILY POLL
Do you think the US and China actually see the world similarly? |
Yesterday’s poll: Where do you think the US, Canada, and Mexico will be a year from now?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚀 Deeper into a trade war (30%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🖊️ With a new trade agreement in hand (66%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (4%)
Your two cents:
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🖊️ E.K.M: “Pressure from electorates everywhere will be enough to get something. Whether it'll last…”
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🚀 P.T.F: “It will take horrible midterms for Trump to change course.”
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✍️ L.R.M.N: “Even if the tariffs are retracted tomorrow, Canada and Mexico's relationship to the US has fundamentally changed in a way that will last decades. Lesson learned, put less eggs in the US basket.”
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🖊️ W.H.G: “Now is the time to go full force.”
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✍️ C.G.V: “Canada and Mexico will have integrated their economies with each other, completely bypassing the US. The US, on the other hand, will be in a major economic crisis.”
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