Plus: Meme of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The US to withdraw from Niger |
2️⃣ Meme of the day |
3️⃣ The world’s best art, whiskey, and airport |
Hi Intriguer. Remember the Red Queen’s race? It’s that bit in Lewis Carroll’s Through the Looking-Glass where Alice runs really fast, but… she somehow remains in the same spot.
The Red Queen herself then explains what’s going on: “here, if you want to get somewhere else, you must run at least twice as fast”.
As today’s briefing on the US withdrawal from Niger explores, it feels like the West is now finding itself in some kind of Red Queen’s race. As more powers vie for global influence, the US and its allies are needing to invest twice as much just to stay put.
In DC? Join us tomorrow (Wednesday, 6PM ET) for International Intrigue IRL 💡 with our co-founder Helen and spy-turned-author Jack Beaumont!
China is still buying (banned) Nvidia chips.
Chinese universities and research institutes are still getting high-end Nvidia AI chips despite US export controls, according to Reuters. It’s unclear whether the chips being used in China come from local stockpiles acquired before the US export ban came into force, or if there’s a loophole at play here.
UN review says Israel yet to prove UNRWA-Hamas links.
An independent review commissioned by the UN says Israel “has yet to provide supporting evidence” of its claims that a significant number of staff of the UN’s main relief office in Gaza were involved in the Hamas October 7 attacks. Israel has responded by reiterating its claims. Several countries suspended aid to UNRWA following Israel’s allegations, with most since resuming their donations.
EU gives TikTok an ultimatum.
The EU has opened more proceedings against TikTok, threatening to suspend its new ‘rewards-for-views’ feature if the company doesn’t address concerns about “the addictive effect of the platforms”.
Trump trial kicks off.
The hush-money trial of former president Donald Trump has started after a lengthy juror selection process. The prosecution’s opening statements sought to frame the former president’s $130k payment to Stormy Daniels as “pure” election fraud, while his defence team insists Trump is “cloaked in innocence”.
UK passes Rwanda immigration bill.
The UK parliament has passed a bill, first introduced in 2022, for the deportation of some asylum-seekers to have their claims assessed in Rwanda. The new policy is likely to face legal challenges.
TOP STORY
The US to exit Niger after a decade of security ties
The US has agreed to withdraw its troops from Niger as the West African country joins several neighbours in pivoting towards Russia.
How’d we get here? A military coup last July ousted Niger’s democratically-elected president and long-time Western partner, Mohamed Bazoum.
The putschists, led by the head of the president’s own presidential guard, argued that Bazoum and his international partners hadn’t done enough to help quash the country’s Islamist insurgency.
And the celebrations on the streets suggested the coup had some popular support, particularly as heavy Western criticism reinforced local claims that former colonial powers like France were interfering in Niger’s own affairs.
Then days later, the new ruling junta ordered French troops to leave, before the US hit pause on most of its own local military operations (both Western powers were mostly focused on local armed groups linked to Al Qaeda and ISIS).
US officials then tried to salvage their own security pact until the junta announced last month – on TV – they were abolishing the deal. Niger didn’t directly ask the 1,100 US troops to leave, though noted their presence was now “illegal”.
That sent US diplomats scrambling in another last-ditch attempt to revise and renew their 2013 security agreement with Niger, but their efforts failed last week.
So, does a US withdrawal from Niger matter?
From a local perspective, folks say it’s about ditching arrangements that haven’t worked, and trying something else (see below). But for the US, this is all a little alarming because of what it does to US capabilities, and who might fill the gap.
Local US capabilities rest mostly on Air Base 201, a $110M facility near Algadez that’s one of the largest US drone bases on the continent. It’s key for:
-
Carrying out intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions
-
Conducting emergency response (including to evacuate US citizens)
-
Hitting the region’s Al-Qaeda and ISIS affiliates, which are now destabilising the region and causing half the world’s terrorism deaths, and
-
Leveraging these capabilities to preserve US influence in West Africa.
In terms of who might fill the gap:
-
Iran is reportedly in talks to tap Niger’s vast uranium reserves, potentially blurring international visibility of Iran’s nuclear program, and
-
Russian troops landed in Niger just this month, bringing with them military trainers and, curiously, an advanced air defence system.
The arrival of an air defence system is particularly intriguing because local ISIS and Al-Qaeda affiliates don’t have any aircraft. So then what’s it for? Probably to help entrench the ruling junta in power, following last year’s threats from West Africa’s main sub-regional bloc (ECOWAS) to mount a military intervention.
And Niger isn’t alone in its Moscow tilt. Both Burkina Faso and Mali – fellow military rulers, neighbours, and now formal allies – are also working with Russia.
What’s in this for Russia? It’s about prying open access to strategic resources, while building a sympathetic bloc to counter Western pressure.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
US security assistance in Niger clearly hasn’t met local expectations. In fact, most researchers say jihadism has actually gotten worse in the Sahel region.
Of course, the US might say the situation would be worse still, if not for the US investing a decade (and $1B) in local security. It could question how Russia’s Africa Group (the successor to its notorious Wagner mercenaries) will fare any better with a fraction of the resources. And it could highlight the likely cost, assuming the Russians will claim a slice of local mineral wealth.
But Niger’s ruling junta has now made its decision, apparently right after meeting with a visiting US delegation that was focused on democracy, Niger’s deal with Iran, and preserving the US security presence.
And clearly, the junta just wasn’t interested. So to us, this is an example of how Western leverage has eroded, not so much because Western power has faded, but because there are other players (with little interest in democracy or Iran) only too eager to step in. It’s happening elsewhere, too.
And it’s raising lots of uncomfortable questions for the US and its allies.
Also worth noting:
-
Niger’s junta has held the ousted, democratically-elected president (Mohamed Bazoum) under house arrest with his family since last July.
-
Russia’s new junta partners in West Africa (Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger) have since taken Russia-friendly positions at the UN, including on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
-
Earlier this week, at least six local soldiers were killed in a blast in Niger’s Tillabery region, near the border with Mali.
-
The US is now negotiating the timing of its withdrawal from Niger, likely to take place over the coming months.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇨🇳 China: More than 110,000 people have evacuated their homes in China’s most populous province following massive flooding due to heavy rains. Footage shared online shows people wading in chest-high water, and fast-flowing currents sweeping away bridges.
-
🇩🇪 Germany: Authorities have arrested three German citizens suspected of working in collaboration with China’s intelligence agencies. The suspects reportedly shared information on “militarily usable innovative technologies” and exported a special laser without permission.
-
🇵🇬 Papua New Guinea: Prime Minister James Marape has hit back at US President Joe Biden after the latter suggested his late uncle might’ve been eaten by cannibals after crashing in PNG during WWII. Marape urged the US to “clean up” the remains of WWII casualties in PNG.
-
🇦🇷 Argentina: Argentina formally applied to become a ‘NATO global partner’ last week, as President Milei continues to lean West. Becoming NATO’s tenth ‘global partner’ (and second in Latin America after Colombia) will require the agreement of all 32 of the alliance’s members.
-
🇮🇱 Israel: The head of the IDF’s intelligence department, Maj. Gen. Aharon Haliva, has announced he’s stepping down from his position over the intelligence failures that led to the October 7th attacks. He’s the first senior Israeli security official to resign following the Hamas attacks.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what folks around the world have been googling
-
🇶🇦 Qataris searched for ‘Skytrax’, after the London-based group named Doha’s Hamad International Airport as best in the world, ousting last year’s winner (Changi Airport in Singapore).
-
Netizens in 🇮🇳 India looked up the ‘London Spirits Competition’, after it named India’s Godawan Century as the world’s best single malt whiskey (with “subtle hints of caramel, charcoal, cinnamon and anise”).
-
And 🇦🇺 Australians googled ‘Venice Biennale’, after the world’s oldest international art biennial awarded the coveted Golden Lion to a monumental installation by local First Nations artist, Archie Moore.
MEME OF THE DAY
The work of our resident meme lord (Jeremy) is available on Instagram (@diplohumour)
It’s always an honour to represent your country abroad, whether through chess, sumo wrestling or, in our case, diplomacy. But we’ll be darned if there aren’t times when you look back on years of seemingly endless visits and briefs and you wonder… what was all that for?
But if that’s you, keep going! Diplomacy is often intangible, but always necessary.
DAILY POLL
The West seems to have lost influence in parts of Africa. Why do you think that is? |
Yesterday’s poll: Which of China's military arms do you think is most important?
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🔊 Information (21%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚀 Aerospace (6%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💻 Cyber (58%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚛 Joint logistics support (13%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ You know what? I have other thoughts on this (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
-
💻 D.C.W: “A cyber attack could be far more devastating to a country without even firing a shot.”
-
🚛 H.S: “If you can't move your military where it needs to be, why have it?”
-
🔊 J.S: “Information seems like an area that will be key for both internal (e.g. identifying dissent within China) and external monitoring (e.g. understanding potential plays by foreign entities), whilst the other areas listed seems primarily externally focused.”
-
✍️ S.C: “Each category is important, but can ultimately be irrelevant if they aren't using modern, competitive technology and instead just trying to pump numbers.”
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.