🌍 The US launches ‘Partnerships for Atlantic Cooperation’

Hi there Intriguer. Here’s a fun fact: a 2017 petition to make Britain the 51st US state collected a grand total of 14 signatures.

Today’s briefing is a 5 min read:

• 🌊 The US launches a partnership for the Atlantic.

•  🇬🇹 It’s been a year of surprises in Guatemala.

• ➕ Plus: The most packed room in NYC, how the papers are covering Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, and what we’re reading about the global IPO market.

1. 🇬🇪 Georgia: A Georgian national security agency has said it’s uncovered a Ukrainian-backed plot to overthrow Tbilisi’s increasingly pro-Russian government. The claims came without supporting evidence, just weeks before a highly anticipated verdict on Georgia’s long-standing EU bid.

2. 🇫🇷 France: The EU has voiced solidarity with France’s ambassador to Niger, who’s been “held hostage” in his embassy according to President Emmanuel Macron. The ambassador has refused expulsion orders from Niger’s junta, which seized power in a July coup.

3. 🇮🇳 India: Delhi has expelled a Canadian diplomat in retaliation for the expulsion of India’s intel chief in Ottawa. Long-running bilateral tensions escalated this week after Ottawa’s explosive claims of Delhi’s possible role in the killing of a Sikh separatist in Canada.

4. 🇺🇸 US: The son of notorious drug kingpin El Chapo landed in the US over the weekend after being extradited from Mexico to face drug trafficking charges. El Chapo is currently serving a life sentence at a maximum security facility in Colorado.

5. 🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: A Saudi media outlet is reporting that Riyadh has paused normalisation talks with Israel due to Israeli reluctance to make concessions towards the Palestinians. Israeli and US authorities have denied the reports.

🌊 Atlantic | Geopolitics

Another club emerges

The US unveiled the ‘Partnership for Atlantic Cooperation’ (PAC) on the side-lines of the UN General Assembly on Monday, bringing together 32 Atlantic countries from across Africa, Europe, and the Americas.

It’s basically a forum for cooperation across three fronts:

1. 🚢 Economic – The 32 countries all share the world’s most heavily travelled ocean that’s home not only to major shipping routes, but also cross-border challenges like trafficking and illegal fishing.

2. 🐠 Environmental – The Atlantic now has a “plastic smog” comprising trillions of particles, plus there’s evidence the ocean’s currents are changing, with implications for sea life and weather.

3. 🔬 Science and Tech – The initiative pledges to bridge the tech gap among its members, by sharing more research and establishing a scholarships and exchange program for young Atlantic scientists.

The PAC also includes a commitment to uphold international law and keep the Atlantic free from aggressive action, though it’s not a security forum.

Intrigue’s take: As always, there’s signalling at play here:

1. The US is saying that its focus on rivals like Russia and China doesn’t mean it’s neglecting everyone and everywhere else

2. Building on #1, the PAC’s geographic branding signals a focus on practical shared interests rather than broader ideological divides, and

3. By launching at the UN, it’s signalling that the PAC is designed to support (rather than undermine) the multilateral system.

But signalling aside, the very existence of these kinds of ‘plurilateral’ initiatives is probably another sign that countries are losing faith in the ability of broader forums (like the UN) to get stuff done.

Also worth noting:

• The 32 PAC members include countries as varied as Brazil, the Dominican Republic, Gabon, Morocco, Norway, and Senegal.

📰 How newspapers covered…

Azerbaijan’s offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh

Today’s newsletter is supported by: The Economist

The warming climate severely affects migration, foreign policy and international relations, as well as life expectancies, food availability and social justice. The crisis will have a profound impact on society, politics and business. The Economist illuminates the many challenges of climate change–and actions that would curb it.

Visit our climate hub for comprehensive analysis and frank forecasts, as well as an exploration of the promising new technologies and policy solutions that could enable a brighter, cooler future.

🇬🇹 Guatemala | Geopolitics

A year of surprises in Guatemala

A guest piece by Eduardo Hernández Recinos, Guatemala’s former Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs (2020-2022)

On January 20, Guatemala’s Supreme Electoral Tribunal (the TSE) fired the starting pistol for the country’s 2023 elections. We didn’t know it at the time, but we were all in for a bumpy race, and the finish line still isn’t entirely clear.

First, the TSE kept us guessing by disqualifying various parties: one for missing paperwork, another for starting its campaign early, and a third for anomalies around its board.

Then when we went to the polls on June 25, we got our second surprise: the Seed Movement led by Bernardo Arévalo, the son of Guatemala’s first democratically elected president (1945-51), came from nowhere to win second place (a former first lady came first).

So, as in every other recent election, we were headed to a run-off.

But in the meantime, we got our third big surprise: the Special Prosecutor's Office Against Impunity (FECI) released a video arguing there’d been corruption in the Seed Movement, including registering party members who were dead, non-existent, or unaware.

The FECI traditionally had no formal role in the electoral process but, in this unprecedented move, it was using Guatemala’s Law Against Organized Crime to insert itself. It tried to suspend the Seed Movement ahead of the run-off election, but the TSE intervened.

So we went to the polls for the run-off election on 20 August, and got our 4th surprise: running on an anti-corruption platform, Arévalo and his Seed Movement ended up winning in a landslide with 58%.

The international community backed the results and condemned the "abusive use" of the law to undermine Guatemala’s democracy.

And it seems the majority of Guatemalans agree: they made this clear on election day when they delivered Arévalo’s remarkable victory, despite the FECI’s attempts to disqualify him.

So we’re now in a transition period before president-elect Arévalo takes office on January 14, 2024. But the FECI and its associated prosecutors, backed by members of Guatemala’s establishment, haven’t given up.

We’re a polarised country right now. So there may be more surprises ahead.

Intrigue's take: Eduardo and our managing editor (Jeremy) have known each other since they were both junior diplomats serving in Mexico City. Jeremy has fond memories of hitting up a legendary taco bar (El Farolito) with Eduardo to celebrate a diplomatic win in 2011.

Eduardo went on to rise rapidly through Guatemala’s diplomatic service, being appointed vice minister in 2020. So maybe one lesson here is that, if someone invites you for tacos, just say yes. They might be vice minister one day. We’re grateful Eduardo shared his perspectives with us.

Also worth noting:

• Speaking at the UN General Assembly in New York yesterday (Tuesday), Guatemala’s outgoing president pushed back on “unnecessary international involvement”, and vowed to “hand over power to the person who was elected in the elections”.

🎧 Today on Intrigue Outloud

Is the developing world ready to support Ukraine’s war efforts?

➕ Extra Intrigue

What we’re reading about the global IPO market

• Arm's debut isn't a barometer for the IPO market [Arm is a British chipmaker]

• Arm Is Already Down Nearly 20% From Its First-Day High

• More SE Asia firms consider U.S. IPOs, filling void left by China peers

• Birkenstock heads for Wall Street in another blow to Europe

🗳️ Poll time!

🐦 Tweet/X of the day

Team Intrigue is on the ground in NYC this week covering all the UN action.

Sign up here and get our special pop-up UN newsletter straight to your inbox!

Yesterday’s poll: It's been a year since Mahsa Amini's death triggered protests in Iran. Do you think those protests were successful?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, they reminded the regime of the power of the people (21%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, everything is still pretty much the way it was before (77%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 C.C: “Agreed that things on the surface look like a resumed status quo but the genie’s out of the bottle now. Iranian women will never forget or forgive. The anger and resentment is spreading and an opportunity will arrive.”

• ✍️ J.W.N: “Iranian society is so opaque it’s hard to gauge whether the protests caused hairline cracks or societal rifts. Time will tell.”