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Todayโs newsletter supported by: |
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Hi there Intriguer.ย We missed a key commemoration yesterday, for which we apologise: two years ago, the New Zealand Long-Tailed Bat was named 2021 Bird of the Year (despite not being a bird).
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Todayโs briefing is a 4 min read:
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๐ฌ๏ธ The wind sector is hitting some turbulence.
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๐ง๐ดย Bolivia severs ties with Israel.ย
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โ Plus: Protests in Bangladeshโs biggest export sector, how the papers are covering Serbiaโs snap election announcement, and why folks in Belgium are googling a Spanish princess.
โฑ๏ธ Around the world in sixty seconds
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๐ฐ๐ฟย Kazakhstan: French President Macron visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan yesterday (Wednesday) in an effort to secure uranium for French nuclear plants. The two countries are Franceโs largest and third-largest suppliers of uranium respectively (Niger is second).
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๐ฌ๐งย United Kingdom: 28 countries, including the US and China, signed an agreement on managing AI and tech risks during a summit in England yesterday. British PM Sunak and Elon Musk are expected to hold a live conversation there today (Thursday).ย
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๐ง๐ฉย Bangladesh: The opposition has announced itโll boycott upcoming elections if Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina refuses to step down. The party has boycotted, one way or another, the last two elections (Hasina won around 73% of the vote in each).
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๐ต๐ฆย Panama: The Panama Canal Authority has again cut the number of ships it will allow to pass each day from an average of 36 to 25. Authorities say the month of October was the driest along the canal since 1950, partly due to El Niรฑo.
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๐ฌ๐ฆย Gabon: US President Joe Biden has announced heโs looking to remove Gabon, Niger, Uganda, and the Central African Republic from a US-Africa trade program, citing human rights and rule of law concerns. The initiative grants duty-free access to the US market.
๐ฌ๏ธ รrsted | Energy
The global wind sector is hitting turbulence
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Danish company รrsted, the worldโs largest offshore wind developer, released its latest financial report yesterday (Wednesday).
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Whatโd it say? This year, the company has:
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โ Cancelled two large US offshore wind projects, and
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๐ Suffered $4B in impairment losses (ie, abrupt asset value drops).
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Hours after this report dropped, the companyโs shares had tanked 26%.
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Whereโs the intrigue? Most wind developers are now facing headwinds:
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Whatโs the problem?
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๐ High interest rates have made project finance costly
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๐ธ Stubborn inflation has caused production costs to spike
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๐ข Supply chain bottlenecks have caused delays, and
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๐ผย Governments are struggling to adjust their rules and incentives to keep projects viable over long time horizons.
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Intrigue’s take: Thereโs a whirlwind of different objectives at play here: maximise shareholder value; keep energy costs low; hit net-zero targets; and put government debt on a sustainable trajectory.
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When you mix them all together, the result is some clear market signals right now: renewable energy stocks have dropped around 30% since July, while fossil fuel stocks keep rising (and the sector looks as bullish as ever).
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The path to net-zero is looking a little rocky.
๐ฐ How newspapers coveredโฆ
Serbian President Aleksandar Vuฤiฤ calling snap elections
Singapore |
โSerbia’s Vucic dissolves parliament, sets snap vote for Dec 17โ |
Brussels, Belgium |
โโSerbia against violenceโ opposition supporters to unite in electionsโ |
Belgrade, Serbia |
โWhat did Vuฤiฤ say to the citizens of Serbia after the election was announced – It is important that Serbia preserves peaceโ |
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๐ค From our friends at Semafor ๐คย
Inside Washington’s halls of power
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Semafor Principals is a daily newsletter featuring transparent, unbiased reporting on politics and policy โ covering your blindspots inside the halls of power. Read by senior leaders in Washington and beyond.
๐ง๐ด Bolivia | Geopolitics
Israel is under pressure in Latin America
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Bolivia announced (๐ง๐ด) Tuesday it was severing ties with Israel in response to the โaggressive and disproportionate Israeli military offensiveโ in Gaza.
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Itโs the first to sever ties, though Argentina and Chile have echoed the sentiment, while Brazil and Colombia have accused Israel of genocide.
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For its part, Israel says it expects fellow democracies to support Israelโs right to protect its citizens, and to call on Hamas to release its hostages.
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Intrigueโs take: Israel is no stranger to isolation. And Hamasโs remarks overnight (calling for Israelโs โannihilationโ and vowing to repeat the October 7th attacks) will have reaffirmed Israelโs sense of the stakes here.
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But for its backers like the US, invested in sustaining support for a world order under pressure, each new repudiation will be cause for concern.
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Also worth noting:ย
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๐ง Our co-founder John (who was previously a diplomat in China) is on the latest Red Line Podcast, chatting about the hollowing of Hong Kong. Give it a listen here. ๐ง
โ Extra Intrigue
Hereโs what people around the world googled yesterday:ย
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๐ง๐ชย Belgians googled โEspagne princesse Leonorโ (Spanish Princess Leonor) as she took the constitutional oath on her 18th birthday.
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๐ธ๐ฆ Saudis turned to Google for updates on โุงููู ูโ (Yemen) after deadly clashes between the Saudi military and Yemenโs Iran-backed Houthis.
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๐ฎ๐ฉย And Indonesians searched for โHarga BBM Pertaminaโ (Pertamina fuel prices) as a price drop for non-subsidised fuel took effect.
๐ณ๏ธ Poll time!
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Who do you think has the best traditional clothing? |
๐ธ Photo of the day
Credits: Munir uz ZAMAN / AFP.
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Thousands of garment workers took to the streets of Bangladesh earlier this week to protest against low wages in the sector. The textile industry accounts for more than 80% of the countryโs exports.ย
Yesterdayโs poll: What should South Africa prioritise first?
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย โฐ Increasing any kind of power production, asap (36%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฑ Green energy production (26%)
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๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จ๐จ โ๏ธ Prosecuting corruption within the energy sector (35%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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โฐย D.E.E: โOnce the lights stay on, they have breathing room to address other factors.โ
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๐ฑย T.C: โGreen energy can be installed faster while potentially creating good paying jobs, reducing if not eliminating rolling blackouts and improving the economy.โ
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โ๏ธ J.B: โWhen corruption abounds, there’s no way to fix other issues. Money allocated to fix those problems will simply disappear.โ
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โ๏ธ M.G: โWalk and chew gum at the same time – do all of the above!!โ