🌍 The World Court to hand down its interim ruling on Israel-Gaza genocide case tomorrow

Hi Intriguer. When I served in Tel Aviv, I used to stroll through Rabin Square, a lively and cosmopolitan plaza with bustling cafes and restaurants.

It was on the steps of that square where former Israeli Prime Minister Yitzhak Rabin was assassinated in 1995 by Yigal Amir, an Israeli law student and ultranationalist who opposed Rabin’s signing of the Oslo Accords.

I often thought about the counterfactual history there, and how that one act ultimately derailed the two-state solution and prospects for peace.

It’s just one of the many heartbreaks in Israeli-Palestinian ties bringing us to today’s briefing, and the World Court’s imminent and highly-anticipated interim ruling on current hostilities.

– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder

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Israel is forming a buffer within Gaza. It’s razing buildings near the border to create a security buffer inside Gaza. The US has opposed the plan, stating there should be no reduction in Palestinian territory. Separately, a US State Department spokesperson said: “We deplore today's attack on the UN's Khan Younis training center”. Israel denies it was responsible for the attack.

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TOP STORY

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

As ever, this is such a polarising issue in part because it features such opposing yet confident narratives.

The Palestinian people might describe a history of occupation, oppression, and denial of their right to self-determination, culminating in a situation now so dire it’s ended up as a genocide case at the world’s highest court.

The Jewish people might describe their own history of injustice, genocide, and a connection to the land of Israel that stretches back to the Bronze Age, culminating in today’s single Jewish state among neighbours seeking its end.

These competing narratives have paralysed the UN Security Council, which is partly why South Africa felt justified going to the ICJ instead.

The most likely outcome tomorrow is that neither party gets all it wants: e.g., the ICJ might find it's "plausible" the Genocide Convention is being breached, in turn ordering Israel to adjust but not halt its operation.

This type of ruling may not drive immediate change, especially given the ICJ’s lack of enforcement and Israel's vow to still rescue its hostages and defeat Hamas.

But it could put pressure on Israel's allies like the US, on Netanyahu domestically, and on the international order itself as its limits are laid bare.

And we’ll likely see those same opposing narratives play out; whether it's allegations of the West's selective enforcement of international law, or allegations of the world's selective focus on its lone Jewish state.

Also worth noting:

• The treaty defines genocide as “acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group”.

• Both Israel and South Africa were able to appoint 'ad hoc' ICJ judges for this case, bringing the total bench to 17 judges. ICJ rulings are binding and non-appealable, but also largely unenforceable.

• Separately, the ICJ will next month start oral hearings on the “Legal Consequences arising from the Policies and Practices of Israel in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, including East Jerusalem”.

• Unlike the ICJ, the International Criminal Court (ICC) can try individuals. It opened an investigation into the Palestinian-Israeli conflict in 2021. Various states (including Israel) don’t recognise it.

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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: President Yoon is in hot water after a video resurfaced of the first lady accepting a $2,200 Dior bag as a gift. The scandal comes just months before South Korea’s National Assembly elections.

2. 🇪🇺 EU: The European Commission has unveiled plans to “strengthen” the bloc’s economic security, likely with China in mind. The proposed measures include toughening the screening of foreign investments and tightening the export rules for dual-use goods (i.e., goods with civilian and military applications).

3. 🇲🇻 Maldives: Local authorities say a visiting Chinese ship won’t be conducting research within Maldivian waters, after news of the ship’s docking triggered concerns in regional media. The XIANG YANG HONG 3 will reportedly dock at Malé “for rotation of personnel and replenishment” only.    

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: A US panel has ruled that a $10B lawsuit filed by Mexico in 2021 against six US gun manufacturers can proceed, overruling a lower court that had dismissed the case. Mexico says the manufacturers are responsible for an influx of illegal guns crossing the border.

5. 🇮🇶 Iraq: The US has hit three military facilities in Iraq used by Iranian-backed militias, in retaliation for attacks that injured US personnel last week. US airstrikes also killed three Al-Qaeda-affiliated Al-Shabab members in Somalia over the weekend.

EXTRA INTRIGUE

Here’s what people around the world googled yesterday 

• 🇮🇪 The Irish searched for ‘Chinese piano player’ after a viral incident in which Chinese tourists asked not to be filmed by a pianist in London’s St Pancras station.

• 🇨🇦 Canadian tennis fans googled ‘Medvedev’ to read up on the Russian tennis player’s quarter-final win at the Australian Open (where Russian and Belarusian flags are banned).

• 🇰🇷 South Koreans read up on ‘일본 미인대회 우크라이나’ (Japanese beauty pageant Ukraine), after a Ukrainian-born naturalised citizen won the Miss Japan pageant.

LANDMARK OF THE DAY

The Arch of Reunification was a 30-metre (98 ft) tall arch near North Korea’s capital, Pyongyang. We say “was”, because North Korea just demolished it. The arch was commissioned after a landmark inter-Korean summit in 2000, as a way to capture the hope for peace and reunification across the Korean peninsula. The North’s decision to axe the arch follows a marked deterioration in North-South ties. 

DAILY POLL

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think China's economic woes are worse than what the government is letting on?

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤔 Yes, the authorities are hiding something (90%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 No, they're close enough (9%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)

Your two cents:

• 🤔 W.W.M: “I live in China half the year. I have property and contacts all over the country. The Chinese know things are worse and are quietly planning for it. Chinese don't do "politics" they just roll their eyes up and wink when you talk about the conditions in the country.”

• 🤔 S.B: “Regional governments don’t want to disappoint Xi with bad news. So they embellish everything.”