:root {–wt-primary-color: #2D2DC8;–wt-text-on-primary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-secondary-color: #F9FAFB;–wt-text-on-secondary-color: #030712;–wt-tertiary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-tertiary-color: #222222;–wt-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-background-color: #222222;–wt-subscribe-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color: #222222;–wt-header-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto,”Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-body-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-button-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-border-radius: 8px}.bg-wt-primary { background-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.text-wt-primary { color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.border-wt-primary { border-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-primary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-primary { color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-primary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.bg-wt-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.text-wt-secondary { color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.border-wt-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-secondary { color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-tertiary { color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-tertiary { color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-background { background-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.text-wt-background { color: var(–wt-background-color); }.border-wt-background { border-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.bg-wt-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.rounded-wt { border-radius: var(–wt-border-radius); }.wt-header-font { font-family: var(–wt-header-font); }.wt-body-font { font-family: var(–wt-body-font); }.wt-button-font { font-family: var(–wt-button-font); }input:focus { –tw-ring-color: transparent !important; }li a { word-break: break-word; }@media only screen and (max-width:667px) {.mob-stack {display: block !important;width: 100% !important;}.mob-w-full {width: 100% !important;}}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmWUlfBBc4AMP6lQ.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOjCnqEu92Fr1Mu51TzBic6CsTYl4BO.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOmCnqEu92Fr1Mu4mxKKTU1Kg.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOkCnqEu92Fr1Mu51xIIzIXKMny.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiByp8kv8JHgFVrLCz7Z1xlFd2JQEk.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiDyp8kv8JHgFVrJJLmy15VF9eOYktMqg.woff2’) format(‘woff2′);}.table-base, .table-c, .table-h { border: 1px solid #C0C0C0; }.table-c { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-c p { color: #2D2D2D; font-family:’Helvetica’,Arial,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }.table-h { padding:5px; background-color:#F1F1F1; }.table-h p { color: #2A2A2A; font-family:’Trebuchet MS’,’Lucida Grande’,Tahoma,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ That Trump-Zelensky meeting |
2️⃣ Iran’s economy minister on the ropes |
3️⃣ Park of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Your typical diplomat might write a thousand cables over their career. Very few (if any) cables would ordinarily be remembered long-term even within the classified confines of your own ministry, let alone the broader world.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But there’s one cable that’s bucked tradition: commonly known as The Long Telegram, George Kennan’s 1946 cable from the US embassy in Moscow ended up serving as a blueprint for the US strategy throughout the Cold War.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Re-reading it now, it’s striking to see the contrast between:
-
a) An old-school country specialist like Kennan, who frames his arguments on a deep understanding of Russia’s specific history, culture, and world view, and
-
b) Some of today’s broader geopolitical theorists, who paint history as the inevitable result of historic forces more than the decisions by any one player.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Anyway, let’s get you an update on Friday’s jaw-dropping meeting between Donald Trump and Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelensky.
THE HEADLINES
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Mexico + Canada tariffs loom, rate unclear.
Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick has suggested Donald Trump still hasn’t decided exactly how high to set tariffs on Canadian and Mexican imports, due to take effect tomorrow (Tuesday). Trump previously flagged a 25% rate, though it could be lower. An additional 20% tariff on China’s goods is also set to kick in tomorrow.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Israel halts aid into Gaza.
Israel has halted all humanitarian aid into Gaza after Hamas refused to extend the ceasefire by six weeks in exchange for the release of half the remaining hostages. Instead, Hamas insists the deal should now move to the agreed ‘second phase’ (talks to end the war) before it releases any more hostages.
US halts cyber operations against Russia.
Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has reportedly ordered the halting of all cyber operations against Russia, as part of Trump’s broader effort to get Putin to the negotiating table and reset US-Russia ties.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Trump names five cryptocurrencies for US reserve.
The president has named five cryptocurrencies (Bitcoin, Ethereum, XRP, Solana, and Cardano) that he’d like included in a new strategic reserve. Supporters have cheered the news as re-establishing the US as the world’s crypto capital, while sceptics say US taxpayers now merely become exit liquidity for crypto insiders (prices have soared).
The week ahead.
China’s annual ‘Two Sessions’ will kick off on Wednesday — it’s expected to unveil new growth and inflation targets, plus more measures to revive the economy. The EU’s central bank is then set to cut rates on Thursday, before the latest US jobs report drops on Friday.
TOP STORY
The world reacts to that Oval Office meeting
Zelensky, Trump, and Vance mid shouting-match
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
If Friday’s meeting between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelensky had wrapped around the 40-minute mark, it might’ve passed like any other — grip and grin before the two delegations head next door for a bit of roast tenderloin and steamed vegetable, sign their minerals deal, then fly off into the weekend.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But it was around the 40-minute mark that things really collapsed into a shouting match, triggered by a clash between the Ukrainian president and VP JD Vance.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
When Zelensky asked Vance what kind of diplomacy without security guarantees could realistically stop Putin, things quickly got heated. The entire presser is worth a look, but here are just three quick quotes to give you a (very spicy) flavour:
-
Trump: “You’re either going to make a deal, or we’re out”
-
Zelensky: “I’m not playing cards” (in response to Trump saying he had none), and
-
Vance: “Have you said thank you once?” (“a lot of times“, responded Zelensky).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The whole unprecedented affair left Ukraine’s ambassador with her head literally in her hands before the White House booted the Ukrainians out, and Trump then tweeted that Zelensky could only return when he’s ready for peace.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Now, let’s take a quick look at how this is rippling around four capitals:
-
🇺🇸 Washington, DC
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
While opposition lawmakers were dismayed and Vance had to adjust his Vermont family ski trip amid local protests, the White House has since been amplifying messages of support from his cabinet and party. The gist here includes two basic arguments:
-
Zelensky showed a lack of gratitude and respect for the US, and
-
Ukraine needs to re-think its attitude (and even its leader) or the US will walk.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
With pressure to deliver on his campaign promises of peace, Trump seems to have calculated that he can’t or won’t push Putin for concessions, so he’s offering him unilateral US concessions instead (like Pete Hegseth’s cyber ceasefire in today’s headlines), while pressing Zelensky hard. Speaking of whom…
-
🇺🇦 Kyiv, Ukraine
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Zelensky soon tweeted his thanks again to the US, then went on Fox to elaborate that a peace deal without US security guarantees will just give Putin a break before he attacks again. When asked if he thought he should apologise, Zelensky responded “I am not sure we did something bad“, though noted Friday’s meeting wasn’t good for either side.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
And since then, Zelensky has now reiterated that a) he’s willing to step down if it brings real peace (ie, with Ukraine in NATO deterring more Russian aggression), and b) he’s still ready to sign the minerals deal.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
And speaking of which, Trump elaborated during the meeting, suggesting the presence of US workers digging for Ukrainian minerals would serve as an effective deterrent against Russia, though the deal leaves open when (if ever) US workers might actually arrive.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Anyway, while voicing appreciation for the avalanche of support he then received from dozens of world leaders, Zelensky headed straight to…
-
🇬🇧 London, United Kingdom
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
This is where UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer hosted Sunday’s emergency summit with 18 other Western world leaders, culminating in a four-point plan to:
-
i) Keep economic pressure on Russia and security assistance flowing to Ukraine
-
ii) Ensure any lasting peace includes Ukraine and respects Ukraine‘s sovereignty
-
iii) Back any peace plan by bolstering Ukraine’s defence against Russia, and
-
iv) Develop a ‘coalition of the willing‘ to defend any peace deal.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Meanwhile, some of the European comments on the sidelines hinted again at the stark reality that Europe will really need to level-up — Poland’s Donald Tusk, for example, put it like this: “500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them against 140 million Russians. […] Europe today lacks the belief that we are truly a global force.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
And as for those 140 million Russians…?
-
🇷🇺 Moscow, Russia
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Kremlin figures and state TV outlets have remained pretty triumphant.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Putin’s deputy on the security council (Medvedev) rejoiced that the “insolent pig [Zelensky] finally got a proper slap down“, and Putin’s spokesperson welcomed Trump’s “rapidly changing foreign policy configurations” which “largely coincide with our vision“.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
This doesn’t reflect any new success in Putin’s basic war aims on the ground.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Rather, the above sense of jubilation in Moscow reflects something somehow potentially even bigger than the prospect of this war ending on Russian terms with US help: specifically, Putin’s state media outlets have now welcomed what they see as an emerging future in which a troika of strongmen (Putin, Trump, and Xi) will carve up the world.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The foreign minister of US ally Germany summed it up as a world in which “the strength of law” is replaced by “the law of the strong”.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Powers rise and fall, but arguably only one has ever emerged on top then immediately limited its own power — the US did that after WWII, driving the development of the UN, international law, a rules-based trading system, and so on. Its basic insight was that eventually, some other power would rise, so longer-term US interests were best served by erecting basic, credible guardrails beforehand.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Now, there’ve long been seasons when folks have forecast the end of that order, or the weakening of US leadership within it. But the current level of alarm across Europe reflects more than just a system creaking under pressure. Even among those wishing Zelensky had kept his cool, or agreeing on the need for Europe to contribute more to its own defence, or even seeing Trump’s moves as mere posturing to press for a deal… there’s a deeper, creeping fear at this point that the US no longer even sees the value of its own international system.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The EU’s top diplomat (and former leader of US ally Estonia) Kaja Kallas put it like this after Friday’s meeting: “Today, it became clear that the free world needs a new leader.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Also worth noting:
-
The Trump administration is reportedly exploring a role for US investors to participate in a revival of the (in)famous Nord Stream gas pipelines for Russian gas into Europe.
-
Norway has confirmed it’ll keep resupplying US ships after a local fuel supplier called for a boycott in response to the recent breakdown in US-Ukraine ties.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇰🇷 South Korea: A US aircraft carrier has arrived in South Korea as a show of force and unity between the US and its South Korean allies. The USS Carl Vinson and its strike group docked just days after North Korea again test-fired ballistic missiles in violation of international law.
-
🇳🇴 Norway: Oslo is considering tapping its huge sovereign wealth fund to support Ukraine’s self-defence as European countries rush to fill what they fear will be a European security vacuum left by the US. Norway holds the world’s biggest sovereign wealth fund, sitting on a cool $1.8T.
-
🇦🇺 Australia: The Australian government has temporarily frozen scheduled hikes in local beer taxes ahead of elections due by May. The ruling centre-left party is currently struggling in the polls against the conservative opposition.
-
🇺🇾 Uruguay: Yamandu Orsi, a former mayor and history teacher, has taken the oath of office as Uruguay’s new president after last year’s remarkably civil election. He’ll preside over a broad left-leaning coalition, with supporters hoping he’ll repeat the same pro-growth approach his Broad Front delivered when last in power (2015-2020).
-
🇮🇷 Iran: The quasi-parliament in Tehran has voted to oust Iran’s economy minister, blaming him for the country’s ongoing economic crisis (including a 60% currency crash since he took office last year). He must now seek a renewed vote of confidence from parliament within a week or so — otherwise, he’s out.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
-
US bank Citigroup has accidentally credited a client’s account with $81 trillion rather than the intended $280.
-
An Indian cinema-goer has sued (and won!) after getting fed-up with the never-ending pre-film ads at his local cinema.
-
A funeral home in China has become a hit destination for food bloggers, after word got out that these undertakers also serve a mean bowl of noodles to mourners.
-
It’s taken India’s Punjab state government 20 months to realise that a department assigned to one of its most prominent ministers never actually existed.
-
And Thai police have arrested a Brit who overstayed his visa by 25 years.
PARK OF THE DAY
Yep, that’s a park. Credits: Guinness Book of Records.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Who doesn’t love a good park? The lush greenery, the fun-filled playgrounds, the occasional dog chasing a squirrel.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But it’s hard to pack all that into Japan’s Nagaizumi park, which just got crowned the world’s smallest park. The patch of green is about the size of four pieces of A4/Letter paper, though don’t scoff — it does still feature an entrance, a small bench (more of a perch if you ask us), and some absolutely thriving grass to rest your tired, tired eyes.
DAILY POLL
What do you think about the Trump-Zelensky-Vance argument in the Oval Office? |
Last Thursday’s poll: How do you think Syria’s caretaker government should handle its neighbours?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💢 Strike back (4%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 📪 Maintain dialogue (80%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇹🇷 Phone a friend (14%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (2%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Your two cents:
-
📪 I.I: “Maintaining dialogue and trying to create multilateral pressure against foreign involvement seems like the only option.”
-
✍️ D.N.M: “It doesn’t matter what Syria does. Israel is grasping this opportunity of de facto territorial expansion.”
-
✍️ R.T: “Move important installations to safer places if possible, until better days come.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.