Plus: Email of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ 3 ways to see Germany’s election results |
2️⃣ An assassination attempt rattles Uzbekistan |
3️⃣ Email of the day |
Hi Intriguer. My favourite German moment? It might be the time I saw German band Milky Chance at a music festival — when they finally unleashed their hit song (Stolen Dance), the pumped crowd spontaneously erupted into this comical synchronised dance, all taking three steps left (clap) then right (clap).
It was like some impromptu 1980s aerobics class, and it nudged the band’s members to momentarily break character with a truly bewildered look that I cherish to this day.
Anyway, it’s with three cheerful steps to the left (clap) then right (clap) that I cordially invite you to join us for a quick look at Germany’s historic election over the weekend.
World marks three years since Russia’s invasion.
A dozen leaders from Europe and Canada have arrived in Ukraine as a joint show of support to mark three years since Russia’s full invasion of Ukraine. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has said he’d be willing to step down in exchange for NATO membership, while Russia has launched its biggest drone attack to date.
China’s drills near Australia divert flights.
China has accused Australia and New Zealand of “hyping up” the live-fire naval drills Beijing conducted between the two US allies on Friday and Saturday — the drills, which diverted commercial flights, were likely designed to demonstrate Beijing’s reach into the South Pacific while testing any US response (nothing public yet).
Trump shakes up military brass.
The US president has replaced Gen. C.Q. Brown with retired Air Force Lt. Gen. John Dan "Razin" Caine as the chair of the joint chiefs. Caine has previously served in the Middle East and with the CIA, though not in any of the roles legally required for the top job (a requirement the president can waive).
Israel delays prisoner release, cites Hamas ceremonies.
Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has delayed the release of over 600 Palestinian prisoners until Hamas scraps the “humiliating ceremonies” accompanying each hostage release. In response, Hamas has accused Israel of breaching the ceasefire deal, under which Hamas has now released the last of the living hostages in phase one.
Large crowds gather for Hezbollah funeral.
The funeral of slain Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah attracted huge crowds in Beirut yesterday, including representatives from Iran, Iraq, and Yemen. Israel buzzed the funeral with the same jets it used to bomb Nasrallah’s bunker back in September.
Pope remains in critical condition.
Concerns about the Pope’s health persist after the Vatican confirmed his condition is now critical, battling a major lung infection and kidney complications.
TOGETHER WITH INSTITUTE FOR GLOBAL NEGOTIATION
Explore the human side of crisis negotiation
Don’t miss Session 3 of the Institute for Global Negotiation’s (IGN) e-Conference 2025 – Negotiating with Strength: Mental Health and Resilience in High-Stakes Environments. International Intrigue’s own Helen Zhang and panellists will be going beyond theory to explore the human side of crisis negotiation.
This session will explore:
-
The pressure to make decisions that will impact lives
-
The mental toll of managing conflict day after day
-
The overwhelming task of steering negotiations when emotions are running high
Come hear compelling stories and gain insights you won’t hear in textbooks – real-world examples about what it takes to handle critical moments and make tough decisions while keeping your head, your health and your humanity intact.
TOP STORY
Three ways to look at Germany’s election results
Friedrich Merz’s centre-right party finished first.
Germany's weekend election has played out pretty much as we foreshadowed on Friday, with conservative Friedrich Merz emerging as Germany's presumptive next chancellor.
But different folks are now claiming different victories, so let's take a quick look at three of the many ways you could look at these results, and what they might mean for the world:
-
A win for the establishment?
Voters clearly rejected the parties involved in Germany's last fractious coalition, but up to ~75% of folks still ended up backing parties broadly within Germany's mainstream (depending how you want to define that) — and that mainstream might now get a firmer hold over Germany's legislature, which seems set to feature fewer minor parties.
Plus, in putting Merz in charge, voters are also now bringing back to power the long-ruling party of Angela Merkel, which grew its share of the vote to 28.5% (up ~5% from last time). So sure, there's an argument that while Germans clearly want change, they still want it within the guardrails of Germany's mainstream parties.
But while Merz has emerged on top, it's not a full-blown 'crack that bottle of sekt' moment for him — his party still recorded its second-worst result in history (after 2021), and seems likely to face a loud opposition ahead.
So, maybe this election was…
-
A win for the right?
The leader of the nationalist-populist Alternative for Germany (AfD) opposition called the result a glorious success on TV overnight, coming in second with 20.8% of the vote. That was in line with expectations, but it was also:
-
her party's strongest-ever national result, doubling its vote since 2021
-
a first-place in the eastern states and nationally in the 35-44 age bracket, plus
-
mainstream parties mostly now agree on the need for some kind of immigration reform (a long-time AfD priority — Merz is vowing a 15-point plan).
Then, if you want to add Merz's victorious conservative party up above, you've got a collective 49% of Germany's electorate now leaning right, up from 34.5% last time.
But as we explored on Friday, Merz is ruling out any coalition with the AfD, not just due to its suspected extremist ties but also its euro-sceptic and Russia-friendly approach to the world.
Speaking of which, maybe this was…
-
A win for Europe?
The most likely outcome is now a return to Germany's simpler and traditionally more stable 'grand coalition' between Merz's own centre-right and the centre-left of the ousted Olaf Scholz. Merz also seems likely to have the numbers to tweak Germany's constitution and ease the country's famous 'debt brake', giving him more fiscal firepower to (say) invest in infrastructure, lift defence spending, and ramp-up support for Ukraine.
That combo of political stability and fiscal firepower might mean Merz now has a better shot at the reforms needed to revive Europe’s second-largest economy (after two years of contraction) and lift Europe’s support for Ukraine (after three years of war).
And that’s why not only is the euro holding steady (while German stocks solidify their recent rally), but almost every European leader made a reference to a 'strong Europe' in their congratulations.
Anyway, Merz now says he wants to wrap up coalition negotiations within the next two months, which is an ambitious timeframe by German standards, particularly after such a bruising campaign. But Merz doesn’t have a lot of time — "the world won't wait for us".
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As the electoral dust settled, there were a couple of things that surprised us:
-
First, Donald Trump was quick to tweet his congrats, leaning into the fact they've both led right-leaning parties back into power, and describing the result as "a great day for Germany and for the United States of America". And that was a little surprising after folks close to Trump (including Musk and VP Vance) variously supported the AfD. But then moments later…
-
Merz himself declared on national TV that "after the latest statements made by Donald Trump last week, it is clear that the Americans — at any case these Americans, this administration — mostly don't care about the fate of Europe one way or another"; that’s why Merz's "absolute priority is for Europeans to communicate and be united" and achieve "real independence" from the US.
This is truly historic stuff coming out of Berlin, responding to truly historic stuff coming out of DC. And while Trump's latest messaging above might offer hope that DC and Berlin can still find common ground on defence spending, energy, and maybe even China, Trump's first month in office has already rattled a pro-NATO Merz enough to convince him that euro-wary Germany now really needs more Europe.
Also worth noting:
-
Merz (69), a wealthy former lawyer and banker, hasn’t previously served in government. When confirmed, he'll be Germany's oldest chancellor since Konrad Adenauer took office in 1949.
-
Anything could happen, but Merz’s presumed coalition partner from the centre-left is now Germany's most popular politician and current defence minister, Boris Pistorius.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇺🇿 Uzbekistan: A court has handed down sentences against ten people (only five named publicly) over last year’s assassination attempt against a former top presidential aide who’s close to the president’s eldest daughter. It’s all left Uzbekistan’s elite reeling amid rumours of a rift within the local ruling class.
-
🇭🇺 Hungary: Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has used his annual state address to reiterate his opposition to Ukraine’s EU bid while pledging more cost-of-living help at home. Meanwhile, his political director has told a prominent US conservative conference in Washington that, working with Trump and others, “we can save Western civilisation together”.
-
🇸🇾 Syria: Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu has demanded the “complete demilitarization” south of Syria’s capital Damascus, adding that the Israeli military will remain in Syria “as long as necessary.” Syria’s new rulers have demanded that Israel withdraw its forces from the country.
-
🇨🇦 Canada: Retail sales in Canada have grown more than expected as a sales tax holiday and central bank rate cuts lift growth expectations ahead of possible US tariffs, though there are signs of a slowdown. Meanwhile, America’s other top trade partner (Mexico) just recorded its biggest quarterly economic contraction since 2021, citing a drought plus weakness in its huge auto sector.
-
🇰🇭 Cambodia: Local officials have announced that demining operations will resume after DC granted a waiver from the ongoing USAID cuts. Cambodia had aimed to be mine-free by 2025 but has pushed the deadline back by five years due to funding challenges and new landmine discoveries.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
🤣 Your weekly roundup of the world’s lighter news
-
A German court has ruled that Birkenstocks are not art, after the company pushed for court protection of the famous footwear under copyright laws.
-
A Peruvian cop has conducted a drug bust while wearing a capybara costume.
-
A French man is offering to drop criminal charges if two thieves share the $500k jackpot they won from the lottery ticket they bought with his card.
-
A California lawmaker is pushing to make Bigfoot the state’s official cryptid.
-
And a tourist village in China has apologised for using cotton wool to make fake snow amid high temperatures.
EMAIL OF THE DAY
There's not much worse than getting an urgent work email on a Saturday evening. But that's exactly what happened to millions of US federal workers who got the above email at 4.46 pm on Saturday, backed by a warning from Elon Musk that failure to answer would be tantamount to resigning.
As for what happens next? That’s a little unclear. Ambassador Tibor Nagy (now in State’s key management undersecretary role) has circulated a note to US diplomats advising that “no employee is obligated to report their activities outside of their Department chain of command”, while new leaders at the FBI and the Pentagon have issued similar guidance.
DAILY POLL
What do you think this German election result means? |
Last Thursday’s poll: What's a bit of entertainment you think fellow Intriguers would dig?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🪷 The White Lotus (s3) (17%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💼 Severance (s2) (14%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🍎 Apple Cider Vinegar (4%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🦑 Squid Game (s2) (5%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚀 Silo (s2) (6%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🐎 Slow Horses (s4) (30%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙅 Say Nothing (4%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🐦⬛ Black Doves (11%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (7%)
Your two cents:
-
🐎 G: “Slow Horses is an outstanding series — both tense spy drama and satire — just like Mick Herron's books. One of my favourites from the last 5 years!”
-
✍️ A.S: “Godfather of Harlem. The show is focused on the story of Bumpy Johnson, but it includes Malcolm X, Muhammed Ali, Adam Clayton Powell, President Lyndon B Johnson and famous gangsters.“
-
✍️ V.L.H: “The Day of the Jackal! 10 out of 10!”
-
✍️ M: “The Diplomat 💁🏼♀️”
-
Honourable mentions: Mo, Yellowjackets, Hunted, Shogun, and Patriot.
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
✍️ Corrections corner
Thanks Intriguers for pointing out we accidentally dropped Friday’s Azerbaijan pin on Turkmenistan! 🤦