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Hi there Intriguer.ย Busy weekend? The rest of the world sure had one: the Finns, Montenegrins, Bulgarians and Andorrans all went to the polls. OPEC+ announced a surprise cut to oil output. And Russia became UN Security Council president (seriously). And thatโs all before you even dropped your Monday morning Pop-Tart into the toaster.
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Todayโs briefing is a 4.8 min read:
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๐บ๐ธ A jury in the US votes to indict former president Donald Trump.
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๐ซ๐ฎ Turkey greenlights Finlandโs NATO membership.
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โ Plus: Falling demand for chips, how the papers are covering Russiaโs detention of a US journalist, and some amusing headlines to get you strutting into your Monday.
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๐ง Todayโs Intrigue Outloud: Go deeper on Finlandโs accession to NATO, and the unprecedented move in New York to indict a former US president.
๐บ๏ธ AROUND THE WORLD
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๐ฆ๐ฒย Armenia: A top politician from Armeniaโs ruling party warned that Russian president Vladimir Putin would be arrested if he visited Armenia. Historically close ties between the two countries have turned frosty since Russiaโs invasion of Ukraine.
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๐ฒ๐ชย Montenegro: Milo Djukanovic, who has served as either president or prime minister since Montenegro achieved independence in 1991, was defeated in Sundayโs presidential election by Milo ฤukanoviฤ, a 37-year old banker from the pro-EU Europe Now! party.
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๐ฒ๐พย Malaysia: Former prime minister Najib Razakโs corruption conviction will stand, according to Malaysiaโs highest court, which rejected his appeal on Friday. Razak was sentenced to 12 years in prison in 2020 for embezzling $6.1M.
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๐จ๐ทย Costa Rica: The US approved a $25M cybersecurity assistance package to Costa Rica, a month after approving a similar package to Albania. A Russia-based cyber-attack targeted at least 30 Costa Rican government agencies last year.
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๐น๐ณย Tunisia: Authorities in Tunisia introduced a water quota on Friday, as the country suffers its fourth straight year of drought. Potable water now canโt be used for agriculture there until 30 September.
๐บ๐ธ UNITED STATES | TRUMP
Trump becomes first US president to be indicted
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Briefly: A New York grand jury voted on Thursday to indict former US President Donald Trump. This means they believe thereโs enough evidence to bring criminal charges against him, likely related to falsifying business records and election finance violations. Trump is the first US President to be indicted.
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As you can imagine, Americans are reaching different conclusions about it all. Many see it as proof of US integrity (โnobody is above the lawโ). Others see it as evidence of American decay (โthe US justice system has become politicisedโ).
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But the world is reaching different conclusions, too:
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Predictably, state media outlets in China and Russia see Trumpโs arrest as evidence of a US sinking into disorder and disarray.
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Western officials say Trump is a โstress testโ which US institutions are passing (though in private, they fret about Americaโs trajectory).
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And world leaders have mostly stayed silent, though El Salvadorโs president thinks Trumpโs indictment undermines US credibility abroad.
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Intrigueโs take: Throughout its history, the US has shown an ability to inspire us (touching the moon) but also shock us (a Civil War leaving 620,000 dead). Itโs veered between wanting to save the world (Woodrow Wilson), tame the world (Roosevelt) and retreat from the world (Jefferson).
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And this bewildering blend of creative and destructive impulses continues today: in a single week, youโll see an update on the mission to Mars; a drop in life expectancy; stunning progress in AI; and another school shooting.
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Meanwhile abroad, youโll see the US leave Afghanistan, defend Ukraine, host a Summit for Democracy, then fist-bump an autocrat. So to quote a certain ex-presidentโฆ what the hell is going on? Are we watching another period of US renewal? Or is the US in terminal decline?
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Itโs a fair question. And yet, if you try and shoe-horn the US into an answer, youโll just break your shoe. Both answers are playing out. Theyโre the same opposing, centrifugal forces that drive the US to inspire us one day, then shock us the next.
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Soโฆ what exactly is holding the US together right now? US values. If Americans can hold firm to those values, the US will be okay. If not, then strap yourself in.
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Also worth noting:
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Chinaโs netizens on Weibo (Chinaโs version of Twitter) responded to the news in some creative ways, with a little help from AI.
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A conviction wouldnโt prevent Trump from running for president in 2024. In the latest polls, he extended his lead over the likely challenger for the Republican nomination, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis.
๐ฐ GLOBAL PERSPECTIVES
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How different newspapers covered: Russiaโs detention of Wall Street Journal reporter and US citizen Evan Gershkovich on espionage charges.
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Links:ย Hindustan Times, WSJ, Tass.
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Todayโs briefing is sponsored byย Todoist
Organise your life and work, finally.
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Become focused, organised and calm with Todoist. The worldโs #1 task manager and to-do list app.
๐ซ๐ฎ FINLAND | SECURITY
Finland gets NATO green light, days before election
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Briefly: The Turkish parliament approved Finlandโs NATO membership in a late-night vote last Thursday, clearing the final obstacle to Helsinkiโs accession to the military alliance. NATO will formalise Finlandโs membership in coming days.
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Finland, which shares a 1,340 km border with Russia, decided last year to end its history of non-alignment and join NATO after Russia invaded Ukraine.
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Thursdayโs news came just days before Finlandโs general election yesterday (Sunday),ย which saw centre-left Prime Minister Sanna Marin ejected from power. The right-leaning Petteri Orpo will now seek to form a coalition government.
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Intrigueโs take:ย Putin trotted out a bewildering array of justifications for invading Ukraine, ranging from Nazis and the oppression of Russian-speakers, through to NATOโs alleged expansion towards Russiaโs borders.
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Even if we took his NATO justification at face value (we donโt), Putin has failed spectacularly at achieving it. Heโll now have six immediate NATO neighbours instead of five. The total length of his NATO border now more than doubles to 2,553 km. And the queue of aspiring NATO members has only gotten longer.
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For this reason, former Swedish PM Carl Bildt amusingly tweeted a year ago that Putin was NATOโs โsalesperson of the yearโ. He was spot on. And still is.
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Also worth noting:
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Putin reportedly warned Finland against joining NATO in 2016: โWhen we look across the border now, we see a Finn on the other side. If Finland joins NATO, we will see an enemy.โ
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Finlandโs decision to vote out Prime Minister Marin yesterday was not related to her NATO policy, which has been extremely popular.
๐ EXTRA INTRIGUE
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Weโre back with some amusing news to put a spring in your Monday step.
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An Australian cultivated meat company created a meatball out of woolly mammoth meat.
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Four cheetah cubs were born in India last week, 70 years after going extinct.
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After a three-month self-exile, former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro reportedly flew home in a Harry Potter-branded plane.
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Amsterdam has made clear in its latest tourism campaign: it does not welcome hard-drinking young British men.
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And finally, a compilation of dogs showing no remorse after committing crimes against private property.
๐ CHART OF THE DAY
GFC = global financial crisis. Credits: Bloomberg.
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Chips arenโt as hot anymoreโฆ
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โฆ and the trend is being reflected in Koreaโs falling semiconductor figures. In February, โsemiconductor production dropped by 41.8% from a year earlier, a sign global demand for chips is slowing down more than expected.
๐ณ๏ธ POLL TIME!
What (if anything) do you think Trump’s indictment says about the US? |
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Thursdayโs poll: Do you think the UK’s accession to the CPTPP is really worth celebrating?
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๐จ๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ข Yes, it’s a step in the right direction (35%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ช๐บ No, it’ll never come close to replacing what the UK lost with the EU (62%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐๏ธ Other (write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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๐๏ธ E.C.G: โYes it is a strategic move to having access to block China while simultaneously giving UK a tiny growth boost. Negligible, but not negative.โ
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๐ขย J.M.C: โUK is playing the long game. Itโs a win. We may not be here to see the benefits, but itโs a step in the right direction.โ
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๐ช๐บย H: โJoining the CPTPP is a Tory attempt at sprinkling glitter on the steaming turd of Brexit.โ