Plus: Embassy of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What Trump’s cabinet means for the world |
2️⃣ The Intrigue jobs board |
3️⃣ Embassy of the day |
Hi Intriguer. There’s one trusty phrase that Washington-based diplomats and analysts pull out whenever they don’t know how to answer a pointed question about US policies.
It’s one which I’ve heard bandied about quite a lot these past few days, which is that “personnel is policy”. If you say that with any degree of confidence in DC circles, you’ll likely get a round of enthusiastic nods and agreeable murmurs.
Intrigue unpacked this very topic and the broader impacts of the US election on our world on our first ever webinar yesterday. We were stoked to have over 500 (!) folks register to hear our takes on the global plot twist, and hope you’ll join us for the next one!
And now, speaking of personnel, let’s dive into how it actually reflects US policy in today’s edition.
Trump reveals new cabinet picks.
The president-elect has asked billionaire Elon Musk and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy to lead a new ‘Department of Government Efficiency’ with a mandate to “slash excess regulations, cut wasteful expenditures, and restructure Federal Agencies”. Trump has also offered the role of homeland security chief to South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem. More on this below (plus don’t miss the next Election Intrigue — our weekly briefing on how the US election result will shape the world).
Discord US military leaker sentenced.
A federal judge has sentenced Jack Teixeira to 15 years in prison for leaking sensitive Pentagon documents on a Discord chat last year, in what prosecutors described as "one of the most significant and consequential violations of the Espionage Act in American history”.
Neom CEO leaves megacity project.
Nadhmi al-Nasr, who led the $500B megaproject to modernise the Saudi economy and build a megacity in the desert, has departed Neom without explanation after years at the helm. The news comes after reports that several projects had to be cut back.
Volkswagen and Rivian launch joint venture.
German automaker Volkswagen has announced it’s expanding its investment in US electric vehicle (EV) manufacturer Rivian by $800M, bringing its total to $5.8B. Their joint venture will see VW models equipped with Rivian technology available as soon as 2027.
CO2 emissions on track to hit record high.
A key study unveiled at this week’s COP29 in Baku says the world’s annual CO2 emissions (mostly from burning coal, gas, and oil) will reach 41.6 billion metric tons in 2024.
TOP STORY
Trump’s new foreign policy team takes shape
Clockwise from top left: Sen. Marco Rubio, Rep. Mike Waltz, Rep. Elise Stefanik, Pete Hegseth
Winning an election is the easy bit. Then comes the actual job.
So Republicans and business leaders from all over the country have made the pilgrimage to Donald Trump’s Mar a Lago resort this past week hoping for a spot in his team, while the world tries to decipher what each new appointment means for the US, and the world.
Let’s take a look, shall we?
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Marco Rubio as Secretary of State (unconfirmed)
Word is that Florida Senator Marco Rubio will get the nod as the top US diplomat under Trump 2.0, though talks are ongoing. The son of Cuban immigrants, he delivered the GOP’s first-ever Spanish response to a State of the Union back in 2013 – you might recall his English version included a memorable, mid-sentence lunge for a water bottle.
Then, after bowing out of the Republican primaries in 2016, he ended up working closely with Trump 1.0 as an unofficial ‘Secretary of State for Latin America’. His family’s experiences with authoritarians have not only shaped his hawkish approach to Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, but also to Iran and China: in fact, he’s under two sets of Chinese sanctions for his views on Hong Kong democracy and Beijing’s treatment of the Uyghurs.
He’s also a staunch supporter of Israel, and his heated 2023 exchange with an anti-war group — featuring his description of Hamas as “vicious animals” — is going viral again.
As for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine? Rubio is a resolute backer of Ukraine’s self-defence, and he co-sponsored a bill making it harder for US presidents to withdraw from NATO. Meanwhile, his procedural objections to the most recent US defence package for Ukraine (which then passed comfortably) were widely seen as an election year move to distance himself from an unpopular Biden.
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Michael Waltz as National Security Advisor
Mike Waltz has been a congressman for Florida since 2018, after serving as a Green Beret in Afghanistan, Africa, and the Middle East, plus a stint in the Pentagon.
He takes similarly hawkish positions to Rubio, but has also been co-chair of the Congressional India Caucus, prioritising closer US ties with India as a counter to a more assertive China, which he’s described as “the biggest threat America has ever faced.”
Waltz has also backed Ukraine’s self-defence against Russia, but has criticised Biden’s ‘as long as it takes’ approach — rather, his emphasis on ending the war and pivoting US attention to China. To that end, he’s variously called for the US to better enforce sanctions on Russia, flood markets with US gas to break Putin’s war machine, get European allies to do more, and “take the handcuffs off” Ukraine.
He once also co-sponsored a (doomed) bill authorising the US military to target cartels inside Mexico, prompting backlash from Mexico’s then-president.
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Pete Hegseth as Secretary for Defence
Hegseth is an Ivy Leaguer and a decorated combat veteran, though his relative youth (44), colourful private life, lobbying to pardon soldiers implicated in war crimes, and his last eight years as a TV host on Fox News, have all made this announcement more surprising.
But what does Hegseth believe? For a guy who’s been paid to talk on live TV for years, you could find a Hegseth quote to prove just about any point you want, though our sense is he (like Rubio and Waltz above) is hawkish on China and Iran, is pro-Israel, and has little sympathy for Putin (whom he’s labelled a war criminal).
Still, his focus seems more about reforming the Pentagon itself, prompting initial criticism on three fronts:
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First, whether he can succeed where others have failed (reforming a complex $850B organisation like the Pentagon)
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Second, whether he has the international experience to steward US alliances, and
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Third, whether some of his reforms might further politicise the Pentagon (The WSJ is reporting the possibility of a new board to purge generals, for example).
Meanwhile, there’ve been mixed reports on whether Trump is bringing Bob Lighthizer back as his trade chief, but the mere rumour has been enough to hit the Mexican peso (again), given Lighthizer was the architect of Trump 1.0’s use of tariffs against friend and foe alike. Lighthizer is widely tipped to return for Trump 2.0 one way or another.
As for the man himself? Trump is expected to return to public view today (Wednesday) for meetings with Joe Biden at the White House and Speaker Mike Johnson at the Capitol.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
As Helen says above, Washington’s current mantra is ‘personnel is policy’. But if there’s one thing we know about Trump, it’s that he’s not afraid to change personnel or policy. In fact, Trump 1.0 averaged one national security adviser per year.
Still, what can we infer about Trump 2.0 from these latest appointments?
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Trump now seems to be rolling out his new cabinet at a faster clip and with less drama, suggesting he’s better prepared this time around
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His cabinet picks are all hawks on China (and loyal to Trump), and
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They all see a role for continued US power abroad (just look at the outcry from some of the more isolationist voices within Trump’s base).
Plus, some of the key early announcements (like Rubio) really hail from the establishment. The upshot here is that US allies — and perhaps even some foes — may be breathing a sigh of relief: this doesn’t seem as disruptive as feared.
Also worth noting:
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Trump has also nominated former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee as US ambassador to Israel, and Elise Stefanik as ambassador to the UN. Both are staunchly pro-Israel, and Stefanik spearheaded efforts to oust Ivy League presidents over anti-Semitism on campus.
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Trump’s pick to lead the CIA (John Ratcliffe) is a former prosecutor and Texas congressman, who was on Trump’s first impeachment defence team. He was the US spy chief (DNI) for the final eight months of Trump 1.0, after his initial nomination hit turbulence over claims he was too partisan and not qualified.
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Rubio and Waltz ultimately voted to certify Biden’s election in 2020. Stefanik, on the other hand, voted against certifying some of Biden’s votes.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇧🇹 Bhutan: The tiny Himalayan kingdom of Bhutan has announced plans to build a ‘mindfulness city’, with a new $100M bond issue to help finance it. The idea is to promote walking and cycling to reduce emissions, plus green spaces for meditation, all in the hopes of attracting investment and boosting links with South and Southeast Asia.
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🇸🇰 Slovakia: Neighbours Slovakia and Hungary are at odds over a draft bill in Slovakia that would restrict the use of minority languages like Hungarian. These tensions aren’t new in Slovakia, where Hungarians make up around 8% of the population.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: The local defence chief has said he doesn’t believe Donald Trump will ask Manila to pay more for US security assistance, because both countries face a common threat in China. He was responding to media questions in light of Trump’s calls for allies in Europe and elsewhere to contribute more to their own security.
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🇵🇪 Peru: Authorities have closed schools and universities and deployed 15,000 security personnel in preparation for tomorrow’s summit of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) leaders. The last time the ~21 world leaders gathered for an APEC summit in Peru back in 2016, it was just days after a familiar pivotal event: the first election of Donald Trump.
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🇺🇬 Uganda: Authorities have detained two Ugandans for allegedly criticising President Yoweri Museveni and his family on social media app TikTok. The move comes on the heels of a similar case in July, which saw a 24-year-old sentenced to six years in prison for a TikTok video critical of the president.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
The Intrigue jobs board is back!
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Application Developer @ Accenture in Singapore
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Analyst @ Tony Blair Institute in the Philippines
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Programme Officer, Disarmament Affairs @ UN in New York
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Associate, LATAM & Canada Regional Controls @ JP Morgan in Buenos Aires
EMBASSY OF THE DAY
Credit: NK News
Poland is looking to reopen its embassy in reclusive North Korea, four years after moth-balling it during Covid-19. According to NK News, a Polish delegation is set to travel to Pyongyang by train from China’s border city of Dandong, to assess the embassy’s condition.
If the inspection goes well, a limited number of diplomatic staff will then stick around to manage operations, making Poland only the second Western country after Sweden to reopen its diplomatic presence in the hermit state. Just last month, another delegation from Switzerland paid a visit to explore restarting operations at its development office.
DAILY POLL
What would you like our next webinar to focus on?(thanks to the 500+ Intriguers who signed up to our latest webinar yesterday!)
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Yesterday’s poll: Can arch rivals make up?
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📞 Yes, just look at Tehran and Riyadh calling each other (9%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ♟️ No, geopolitics is a game of chess, this is a move (66%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ☎️ Maybe, if the circumstances are right (23%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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♟️ A.L: “The enemy of my enemy is my friend, until they become my enemy again.”
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☎️ E.K.H: “The US and Japan managed it. So did the UK and France, and Germany and everyone. Nothing is impossible”
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📞 R.S: “Of course they can. Countries change, and differences are set aside when interests align.”
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♟️ S.R.C: “It’s all a distraction tactic, "look there's a Squirrel".”
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✍️ O: “When they face a serious common threat, they will likely forego their hostilities towards each other. When the common threat is removed, they will likely go back to being arch rivals, unless the threat somehow transforms the rivals into a positive relationship going forward.”
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