Number of the day

$112B 

That’s the gap between what China said it exported to the US last year, and what US customs authorities say arrived. It suggests plenty of trade has evaded tariffs.

State of the Union

President Trump just broke the record for the modern era's longest State of the Union address, beating Clinton's 88-minute valedictory with a 108-minute victory lap targeting this year's critical mid-term elections.

Focusing more on hip-pocket issues like rent and eggs, and vote-winning wedges like crime and immigration, he still devoted a relatively high ~30% of his address to America's role in the world. So let's get you the five key lines you should know, starting with…

1. "Our enemies are scared. Our military and police are stacked and America is respected again, perhaps like never before."

That's not just a solid distillation of the speech's overall vibe, but also a vintage articulation of the way Trump 2.0 is reviving a classic realist worldview: by linking fear to respect, he's emphasising the way power deters, in contrast to predecessors who leaned more into America’s internationalist strengths like alliances, values, and soft power.

Sure, it's red meat for home, but (and don't shoot the messenger here) when you upend that fear-respect balance, you can also wobble those same traditional US strengths: after a year of Greenland and Canada threats, ~64% of Canucks now view the US unfavourably (even before Sunday's hockey final), and ~60% of Danes see the US as an adversary!

2. "But the good news is that almost all countries and corporations want to keep the deal that they already made."

Trump's speech-writers had to rewrite this tariffs section over the weekend after the supreme court kicked the chair from under much of his trade strategy on Friday — turns out the president's use of emergency economic powers was unlawful.

So… what now? Trump used his address to send a couple of messages to trade partners:

• First, he warned “the legal power that I as president have to make a new deal could be far worse for them”. I.e., just stick to the deals we've already done (leveraging tariffs the supreme court just voided), or else. And…

• Second, he argued his tariffs “will remain in place under fully approved and tested alternative legal statutes”. The court already voided his emergency tariffs, so this seems a reference to the remainder imposed under sections 232 (natsec) and 301 (unfairness) — ie, his natsec tariffs still hit strategic sectors like steel, aluminum, and chips, while his unfairness tariffs still mostly hit China (think EVs, batteries, solar panels, and machinery, but also lots of low-cost goods).

So he's still got some leverage up his sleeve (particularly with China), but for almost everyone else, the message here is: okay, but try me.

3. "We brought him over to celebrate his freedom with you in person. Enrique, please come down."

It's all about the cameo, and interestingly, Trump used two related to Venezuela. His first was opposition figure Enrique Márquez who, after a year in Maduro's notorious Helicoide prison, made a surprise Maury Povich-style cameo in the chamber to embrace his US-based niece, who's long been campaigning for his release.

It was part of a section that leaned much more into a pro-freedom justification for ending Maduro's reign — this not only plays better with US voters, but also explains why (and we're not joking) there will now be lots of little Donald Trumps born in Venezuela.

The second Venezuela cameo came from Eric Slover, the Chinook pilot who took several bullets during the Maduro mission. The intriguing thing here was Trump’s new details of how close it all seemingly came to becoming a modern Eagle Claw or Mogadishu, potentially sending a very different message about US power.

4. "They want to make a deal, but we haven't heard those secret words: 'we will never have a nuclear weapon'."

It's possible to read too much into election-year messages, but this line might be big: after months of demanding zero uranium enrichment (even for any legit purposes), the president is perhaps now lowering the bar to just no nukes.

So maybe (a massive maybe given the US armada still offshore), that tiny Venn offramp we highlighted last week is still within sight: ie, a deal that allows limited civilian enrichment under strict verification, plus tougher terms around ballistics and proxies. The talks resume in Geneva tomorrow (Thursday).

And finally…

5. "We're working very hard to end the ninth war, the killing and slaughter between Russia and Ukraine"

The interesting thing here is it was Ukraine’s only mention beyond the fact America's NATO partners are now financing Ukraine’s US arms purchases. We can only guess at the reasons, but this brevity is most likely because…

• a) the talks aren’t going well (for reasons we explored yesterday), and

• b) Trump's stance on Ukraine isn't popular among voters.

But you know the country that got even less airtime than Ukraine? China! It escaped with a single passing reference to its air defences that failed to help Maduro. Why so fleeting? The president is probably still de-escalating to maximise any manoeuvrability ahead of his big Xi summit planned for April. And pending what (if anything) happens in April, there’s just no clear prime-time 'win' here to highlight in an election year.

Intrigue’s Take

You can bet every foreign embassy in DC will be writing breathless cables back to their HQ parsing the president’s speech, and those paying attention will have highlighted one other line in particular: “I think he’ll go down as the best ever.”

The president was referring here to his top diplomat, Marco Rubio, who got a major shout-out, even remarking that other envoys like Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner report to him. Why would foreign embassies care about this kind of palace intrigue?

They’re all looking for clues not only around who holds the president’s ear now, but also (and relatedly) who’ll get his blessing for 2028. And while it’s still early days, it’s shaping up as a race between VP Vance’s more America First approach to the world, and Rubio’s neo-Reaganism.

Vance only got a brief, factual reference to him running a new anti-fraud initiative in the wake of the big Somalia-linked scandal engulfing Minnesota. Compare that to Rubio’s standing ovation, and embassies will now be betting more on a Rubio candidacy for 2028.

Today’s newsletter is sponsored by The Daily Upside

Join over 1M+ investors who choose clarity over clickbait

Curious about the latest in finance, economics, and global business? We’ve got the answer: The Daily Upside.

This fresh, insightful newsletter, created by a team of Wall Street insiders and bankers, delivers deeply valuable insights that go beyond the headlines.

The best part? It’s completely free. We read it every morning, and you should too.

Meanwhile, elsewhere…

Extra Intrigue

Here’s what folks are forecasting, according to the latest prediction markets

• 🇮🇷 There are now 50% odds of a US strike on Iran by 30 March.

• 🇳🇵 There’s a 53% chance rapper-turned-politician Balendra ‘Balen’ Shah will be Nepal’s next prime minister (elections are next week).

• 🇮🇱 And we’re seeing 52% odds Somaliland (which Israel recognises but the US doesn’t) will join the Abraham Accords before 2027.

Change of the day

New year, new me. Or at least, new name?

That’s what just happened to Ghana’s main airport in the capital (Accra), after the government switched it back to the original name 🥁🥁🥁 ‘Accra International Airport’.

What’s wrong with Kotoka? He was among a group of military officers who deposed Ghanaian founding father Kwame Nkrumah in 1966, before getting shot dead himself at that very same airport during an attempted counter-coup a year later.

A military government eventually renamed the airport in his honour, but six decades on, locals feel maybe the name is no longer fit for one of Africa’s most enduring democracies.

Today’s poll

Yesterday’s poll: Which development do you think would bring Russo-Ukraine peace soonest?

☠️ Losses become unsustainable (33%)
🌲 Significant territory lost/gained (12%)
✂️ Allies pull their support (19%)
🔫 Sudden leadership change (32%)
✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 🔫 P.M: “Lose Putin, and his successor can claim to be following ‘the will of the people’ in ending this incursion. If (and that's a big if) reports of Russian citizen disenchantment with losses are accurate, that could work.”

• ✂️ T: “If China and North Korea pull their support from Russia, Putin would be forced to cave.”

• ✍️ B.H: “It can end when the Ukrainian air campaign against Russian oil and gas reduces funding to the point that war is financially unsustainable.”