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Hi Intriguer.ย Two of the most visible ways a country typically โprojectsโ its power abroad are through its diplomats and its troops – though not always in the same direction.
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Turkey, for example, now has the worldโs third-largest diplomatic network, with 40% of it (or 102 missions) in Europe – thatโs also where 40% of its exports go (and most of its diaspora lives).
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For todayโs lead, weโre headed in the opposite direction, and with the blunter arm of state power, as Turkey plans to push its military further into northern Iraq in pursuit of Kurdish separatists.
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– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
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P.S. – Weโre running a giveaway for two tickets to the hit show Lovett or Leave It in D.C. on April 25! How do you enter? Simply refer a friend using your unique link down below.
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
TODAYโS NEWS
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The CIAโs influence operation against China.ย Then-President Donald Trump authorised the CIA to launch an influence operation on Chinese social media and through overseas news outlets in 2019, aimed at turning local and international sentiment against the Chinese government, according to a Reuters exclusive. The CIA reportedly promoted allegations of Communist Party officials hiding fortunes in secret offshore accounts, and criticised Chinaโs Belt and Road Initiative as corrupt and wasteful.
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Hamas presents new ceasefire proposal. Hamas has presented a new proposal for a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Israel, which would see the initial release of women, children, and elderly hostages in exchange for 700-1000 Palestinian prisoners and (after the first exchanges) a timeline for Israelโs withdrawal from Gaza. Prime Minister Netanyahuโs office said on Thursday that the new truce proposal it had received was still based on “unrealistic demands.“
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Biden opposes Nippon Steel deal.ย US President Joe Biden has said he opposes the planned $14.9B takeover of US Steel by Japanese company Nippon Steel, arguing the company should โremain domestically owned and operated.โ While not formally blocking the deal, the move will please some blue-collar voters ahead of Novemberโs election, though could create tensions with ally Japan. The CEO of US rival Cleveland-Cliffs says heโd consider making another bid to acquire US Steel, though at a lower price.
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US Democratic Senate leader calls for fresh Israeli elections. Chuck Schumer, the Democratic Senate majority leader, has called for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to step down and hold fresh elections. Schumer accused Netanyahu of being โtoo willing to tolerate the civilian tollโ in Gaza, and of โpursue[ing] dangerous and inflammatory policies that test existing US standards for assistanceโ. In response, Israelโs ambassador to America said it was โunhelpfulโ to comment on โthe domestic political scene of a democratic allyโ.
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Russians head to the polls. President Putin is running against token opposition in Russiaโs tightly controlled presidential election, which runs for three days from today (Friday). Thereโs little doubt about whoโll win, though dissidents have urged Russians to show up en masse at the polls at noon on Sunday to display their discontent.
TOP STORY
Turkey sounds the war drums in northern Iraqย
Credits: Karwan Sabah Hawrami via ResearchGate.
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Turkish officials have been โrolling deepโ in Iraq this week. The foreign minister, defence minister, and intelligence chief have all hit Baghdad for meetings ahead of a planned visit from President Recep Tayyip Erdoฤan next month.ย
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Thatโs a conspicuously senior guest list for talks on โenergy and security cooperationโ, per the initial public line. It makes more sense amidst reports Turkey has decided to launch a new offensive into Kurdish-populated northern Iraq this summer to push the Kurdistan Workersโ Party (PKK) further south.
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Does this mean thereโll be another war in the Middle East?ย
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Turkey has been conducting strikes against outposts of Kurdish separatists like the PKK in northern Iraq for decades. In fact, the PKK has long been designated a terrorist organisation in Turkey and across much of the West.
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But as Turkey pursues the PKK deeper into Iraqi territory, itโs also built dozens of unsanctioned bases there.
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And Ankara is now looking to create a full 30-40km buffer in northern Iraq, with Erdoฤan saying, โhopefully, this summer, we will have permanently resolved the issue regarding our Iraqi borders.โ
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So it appears the phalanx of senior Turkish visitors to Baghdad this week is really to seek Iraqโs support (or at least its acquiescence) for this move against the PKK.
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But why now?
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First, recent attacks in the area have left some 20 Turkish soldiers dead.ย
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Second, Erdoฤan has saidย Turkeyโs local elections on 31 March will be his last before he becomes term-limited in 2028. Heโs not a candidate, though he sees this local ballot as key to his succession plan, and heโs criticised opposition/Kurdish links at campaign rallies. A tough line on Kurdish separatists could help Erdoฤan and his party win major opposition-held cities like Istanbul, where the mayor is a political rival.
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Third, the PKK is seen as a hurdle (one of many) for the Iraq Development Road, an ambitious $17B Iraqi plan to connect the Persian Gulf through Iraq to Turkey and on into European markets. Turkey has its own interests (particularly after the US and other partners announced a parallel corridorย that excludes Turkey), but itโs presumably also using this project as leverage in its PKK talks with Iraq.
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And all along, the international community has remained relatively quiet, partly because itโs distracted by conflicts elsewhere (including in Gaza) and partly because the US is backing other anti-ISIS Kurdish groups next door in Syria.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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We mentioned yesterday how the debate around TikTok looks like an early test of what it means to be a sovereign state in the 21st century.
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Todayโs briefing is a reminder that, while we grapple with these new-fangled tech challenges, weโre still also grappling with what it meant to be a sovereign state in the 20th century, as borders continue to blur behind a bewildering network of alliances, rivalries, dependencies, ambitions, and grievances.
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Also worth noting:
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Turkey and Iraq just released a joint statement in which Iraq says itโs listing the PKK as a banned organisation for the first time.
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The US and Iraq are in talks about a potential withdrawal of the ~2,500 US troops still on Iraqi soil.ย
SUPPORTED BY LYKEION
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Lykeion is an independent financial media outlet founded by a team of ex-portfolio managers and geopolitical analysts.
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Every week, Lykeion sends out investment-grade research and insightful commentary on macro-trends and thematic analysis that focuses on the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics. Check out these recent pieces:
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And, for a limited time only, they’re giving Intriguers 2 months free of Lykeion Plus: deep dive editorials, macro research, and thematic overviews, all at the intersection of financial markets and geopolitics.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
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๐ฐ๐ทย South Korea: Seoul says it might ban the sale of certain equity-linked investments after an investigation found local banks misled folks about their risky nature. The complex China-linked products, which have recorded $4B in losses this year, have been popular among older Koreans grappling with limited pensions and rising living costs.
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๐ซ๐ทย France: A Swedish think tank says France has now become the worldโs second-largest arms exporter, with India its top customer. The US remains the top arms exporter, while Russia dropped from second to third place after its exports halved in a decade (partly due to reduced orders from India).
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๐ฆ๐บย Australia: Chinaโs foreign minister will next week make his first trip to Australia and New Zealand since 2017. China imposed restrictions on Australian exports in 2020 after ties frayed over multiple issues, but itโs now unwound limits on Australian coal, timber, and barley, with wine likely next.
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๐ญ๐นย Haiti: Local gang leader Jimmy โBarbecueโ Cherizier has issued an audio message threatening local politicians who are set to join a new transitional council. Separately, the UN has said itโs now establishing an aid airlift to Haiti, while the US Senate just voted to confirm career diplomat Dennis Hankins as ambassador to Haiti (the role was vacant for 2.5 years).ย
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๐ช๐ฌย Egypt: EU leader Ursula von der Leyen has pledged greater support for Egypt as Brussels pushes for a deal similar to the aid and migration pact signed last year with Tunisia. The EU sees both countries as key to halting irregular migration flows from North Africa to Europe. ย
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some weekend suggestions from Team Intrigue if youโre inย ๐ง๐ท Rio de Janeiro
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Eat: Swing by โCafe Ao Leuโ for a legendary cup of specialty coffee.
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Activity: Hire a bike and cruise around the Lagoa (lagoon) Rodrigo de Freitas, with views of the famous Christ the Redeemer statue above.
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Visit: Check out Casa Roberto Marinho, which currently has a collaboration with several significant private art collections, all set in the neo-colonial residence of Brazilโs late media mogul.
DEAL OF THE DAY
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French media outlet Le Monde and Spainโs Prisa Media have signed deals allowing US-based OpenAI to train ChatGPT with their content. The deal, which involves undisclosed payments by OpenAI, comes as the AI pioneer faces several lawsuits from news organisations accusing it of copyright violations.ย
FRIDAY QUIZ
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On this day in 44 BC, Roman dictator Julius Caesar was assassinated by his fellow senators. Todayโs quiz is on famous historical deaths.
1) How did James II, King of Scotland, die in 1460? |
2) How many US Presidents have been assassinated? |
3) How old was Alexander the Great when he died? |
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๐คฆโโ๏ธ Corrections Corner
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Yesterday we made two typos (Metter/Mette and his/her) while referring to the Danish Prime Minister, Mette Frederiksen. Sheโs been Danish PM since 2019, and as Borgen fans, we shouldโve known better! Thanks to our readers who pointed out the errors ๐