Plus: Updates on the Xi-Biden meeting
Hi Intriguer. The Biden-Xi meeting yesterday went largely as expected – there were some modest outcomes, plenty of platitudes, and not a whole lot of tangible else (see our summary below).
That was until Biden said at a press conference that Xi is “a dictator in the sense that he is a guy who runs a country that is a communist country.” Hear that? That’s the sound of thousands of State Department officials slapping their heads in unison.
In a vacuum, Biden’s comments aren’t a big deal. But in the context of US-China relations, his remarks could be a problem. Beijing reacted furiously when Biden called Xi a dictator in June, so we’ll learn a lot about just how keen China is to stabilise relations by how they react in the coming days.
– John Fowler, Co-Founder
A UN role in Gaza? Germany has suggested the UN could take control of Gaza after the war. Palestinian officials have slammed the idea, but someone will need to fill any post-Hamas void. Germany acknowledges other options (like Egypt or the ailing Palestinian Authority), but might the UN end up the least worst option?
Public opinion is turning. Recent US polling suggests public support for Israel’s war against Hamas could be fading, as civilian casualties mount. You can bet Israel’s leaders will be tracking this sort of data as closely as any UN vote.
A geopolitical juxtaposition. Joe Biden found time during APEC to issue a firm defence of the US’s decision not to press Israel for a ceasefire in Gaza. At almost the same exact moment, the UN Security Council passed a resolution calling for “urgent extended humanitarian pauses for [a] sufficient number of days to allow aid access”.
There’s money in a soft landing. If Goldman Sachs is to be believed, the US might now be “on its final descent to a soft landing” (i.e., curbing inflation without crashing the economy). This will feed into calculations among US allies and adversaries about US staying power.
A toehold becomes a foothold in Ukraine. Ukraine is finally confirming that it’s established a foothold on the Russian-occupied bank of Ukraine’s longest river, bringing it a step closer to Crimea. And with hints of fatigue in the West, this news comes not a moment too soon.
TOP STORY
UK Supreme Court halts Rwanda refugee plan
The UK Supreme Court has shot down the government’s plan for certain asylum-seekers to be processed in Rwanda, labelling it “unlawful”.
We’ve read all 56 pages of the court’s decision so you don’t have to. The legalese gets complex in parts but, intriguingly, the judges delve into some of Rwanda’s recent history, including:
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Rwanda’s “apparent failure” to uphold an earlier migration deal with Israel, and
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“at least 100 allegations of refoulement and threatened refoulement” (ie, forcibly returning people to a country where they’re at risk).
But the court says ultimately the issue isn’t “the good faith of the government of Rwanda at the political level, but its practical ability to fulfil its assurances.”
Domestically, the court’s decision caps an eventful few days for Downing Street (including a shock cabinet reshuffle), and comes just as Prime Minister Sunak suits up for next year’s elections.
But regionally, the UK isn’t exactly an outlier. Irregular crossings through the Central Mediterranean have almost doubled this year, and more capitals are looking to third-country deals for an answer:
And European supporters of this third-country approach have, in turn, long taken their inspiration from the other side of the world: Australia.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
It’s hard to think of a more sensitive topic than migration, sitting right at the crossroads of national identity, state sovereignty, individual dignity, and international responsibility.
In that maelstrom, Sunak says he’ll rework his plan in order to address the court’s concerns. But anyone who’s familiar with Australia’s system (the model for the Rwanda deal) knows this is probably just the beginning.
Also worth noting:
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Sunak’s vow to introduce emergency legislation came shortly after his Australian counterpart pledged his own urgent laws in response to a separate landmark court case on migration.
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THE XI-BIDEN MEETING
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🇨🇳 What Xi said: “For two large countries like China and the United States, turning their back on each other is not an option […] Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other.”
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🇺🇸 What Biden said: “We have the responsibility to our people and the world to work together when we see it in our interest to do so. Critical global challenges we face, from climate change to counter-narcotics to artificial intelligence, demand our joint efforts.”
And the pair struck a few low-stakes but potentially meaningful deals:
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💊 On drugs, Beijing agreed to go after fentanyl producers and the companies that synthesise its components, in exchange for US sanctions relief on a security agency accused of human rights abuses.
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🌱 On climate, the pair reportedly pledged to resume cooperation and ramp-up renewables (though Biden didn’t mention this at his post-meeting press conference).
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🤖 And on AI, the duo agreed to prohibit its use in autonomous systems like drones, as well as in nuclear command and control. Plus, Biden announced in his presser that the US and China would restore high-level military-to-military ties.
Also worth noting:
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Some US lawmakers weren’t happy the talks took place at all, with 20 Republican senators warning in a letter that the meeting sent a “clear message that this administration will pursue an economic reset with China above fortifying the national security of the United States.”
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: Two opposition parties have agreed to place their candidates on a joint ticket in an attempt to defeat the independence-leaning ruling party at January’s election. Both parties on the joint ticket have pledged to resume dialogue with China (which was suspended in 2016).
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🇪🇺 EU: Brussels has struck a deal to advance the bloc’s first-ever methane emissions regulation, two years after launching the Global Methane Pledge at COP26. The new rules require certain companies to report their methane emissions and check for leaks regularly.
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🇹🇭 Thailand: Authorities have dropped a controversial plan to station Chinese police patrols at some of Thailand’s most popular tourist spots after domestic backlash. The plans were originally floated as a way to boost Chinese tourists’ confidence in the country’s safety.
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🇨🇦 Canada: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has called on Israel to adopt “maximum restraint” in Gaza as civilian casualties continue to mount. French President Emmanuel Macron shared similar sentiments last week, though later clarified his position and reiterated solidarity with Israel.
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🇸🇾 Syria: French judges have reportedly issued arrest warrants for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and his brother for their roles in chemical weapons attacks in 2013. This is the first international arrest warrant for Assad since the start of the Syrian civil war.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what the world googled yesterday (Wednesday)
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🇮🇩 Film enthusiasts in Indonesia looked for ‘Hunger Games’ after the new prequel film opened in theatres nationwide.
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🇭🇺 Hungarians googled ‘Sáp’ after two trains collided at Sáp station.
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🇰🇪 And folks in Kenya searched for ‘India vs Ireland’ during the cricket World Cup semi-final, which was ultimately won by India.
MAP OF THE DAY
It turns out Somalia is almost as long as the US east coast.
Source: The CIA World Factbook
Yes, this is real… and it goes to show how our most widely-used maps (like the Mercator Projection we use for our beloved ‘Meanwhile, Elsewhere’ section above) can often fail pretty spectacularly to reflect reality. We would switch to the more accurate AuthaGraph Map, but honestly? It just feels too dang weird…
DAILY POLL
Do you think deals with third-party countries are a good idea to manage migration? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think will come of today's Xi-Biden meeting?
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🤷 Nothing much (49%)
🟨🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️ 🗣️ Resumption of regular contact (42%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📜 A substantive joint statement (7%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
Your two cents:
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🤷 A.F: “All pomp, no substance. Let the status quo continue…”
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🗣️ S.H: “The US has made some gaffes, but I think we're slightly thawing ties with Beijing out of joint necessity–even China doesn't want to be isolated fully from the West with so much near-home conflict.”
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📜 W.B: “As the meeting is on U.S. soil, already a win for us. China will slow-walk the normalization of relations so as not to appear subservient”.