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Β
IN TODAYβS EDITION
1οΈβ£ The US-Ukraine deal |
2οΈβ£ The Intrigue jobs board |
3οΈβ£ Photo of the day |
Hi Intriguer. When we first started Intrigue, our mission was to help readers connect the dots between all the various happenings around the world across geopolitics, business, and technology, and how it impacts them.
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We wanted to help readers make sense of why, for example, a protest in a copper mine in Chile would disrupt global supply chains, and mean that you wonβt get your fancy smartphone in time for the holidays.
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Todayβs briefing leads with one of those stories that Intrigue loves to tell. It features international peace agreements, trade deals, and the critical minerals needed to create green tech and more. Letβs dive in.
THE HEADLINES
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UK to boost defence spending to 2.5% of GDP.Β
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has pledged to raise the UKβs defence spending from 2.3% to 2.5% of GDP by 2027, in a hike offset by cutting overseas development aid from 0.5% to 0.3%. The announcement comes ahead of tomorrowβs meeting with Donald Trump, who has criticised his NATO allies for not hitting their defence spending targets.
Israel agrees to release detainees after delay.Β
Israel and Hamas have reached another deal, with Israel now set to release the 620 Palestinian detainees that were due for exchange over the weekend, in return for the bodies of four more dead hostages held by Hamas.
Trump floats βGold Cardβ scheme for wealthy investors.Β
The US president has flagged a new scheme to sell visas for permanent US residency for $5M each, as a way to attract wealthy investors to the country. Various nations have been using these investment-for-visa schemes since at least the 80s, often generating returns but drawing periodic allegations of tax evasion, money laundering, and fraud.
Taiwan detains China-linked ship after undersea cable damage.Β
Taiwanese authorities have detained a Chinese cargo ship and its crew on suspicions it damaged an undersea cable. We wrote about similar incidents in the Baltic SeaΒ here.
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Top G20 finance ministers to skip meeting.
Finance ministers from the US, EU, Japan, India, China, Brazil, and Mexico will reportedly skip this weekβs G20 meeting in South Africa, reflecting increased divisions within (and the declining relevance of) the G20.
TOP STORY
Ukraine and the US sign key mineral deal
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After months of twists and weeks of turns, the US and Ukraine have now apparently agreed on their big minerals deal.
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Hereβs what you need to know.
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The idea first emerged in Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyβs victory plan, which he started presenting to his parliament and key allies from October last year.Β
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Alongside things like NATO membership and continued security support to deter further Russian aggression, Zelensky suggested Ukraineβs closest allies should get βa special agreement for the joint protection of the country’s critical resourcesβ, including βnatural resources and critical metals worth trillions of U.S. dollars, including uranium, titanium, lithium, graphite, and other strategically valuable resourcesβ.Β
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Why? Zelenskyβs strategy was simple:
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Keep your allies actively invested in Ukraineβs continued security, and
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Curb criticism in the West that backing Ukraineβs self-defence is too costly.
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And heβs got a big juicy carrot to dangle here, too:
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Ukraineβs own data suggests it has one of the worldβs biggest deposits of graphite, a third of all European lithium, and even supplied 7% of the worldβs titanium before Russia invaded. These metals are all key building blocks for multiple US weapons systems and other tech, but China controls the vast majority of global supply for these and more.
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Ukraine also has iron ore, coal, and gas, but the other big thing Ukraine might be sitting on? Rare earths, which should more accurately be called βοΈdifficult to extractβοΈ earths (theyβre not rare) β theyβre also used in weapons systems and EVs.
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But as juicy as that carrot is, there are a couple of complicating factors at play: first, thereβs not a lot of data about Ukraineβs rare earths deposits. And second, a chunk of the countryβs broader mineral wealth is actually now occupied by Russian troops, who are (for example) now aiming at another major Ukrainian lithium deposit known as Shevchenko.
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So then, whatβs the current state of play?
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Trump sent his treasury secretary (Bessent) to offer Zelensky a deal earlier this month, but details later suggested it was less a partnership and more a shake-down β effectively demanding $500B in Ukraineβs mineral wealth as back-payment for the $119B in support the US has already provided (mostly spent within the US). In return, Ukraine would get no meaningful new security assurances against another Russian invasion.
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So Zelensky rejected that deal last week, declaring βI will not sign what 10 generations of Ukrainians will have to pay backβ.Β
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Negotiations then continued, with both sides dropping hints of what was to come:
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Bessent told Fox News the mineral deal would contain βimplicitβ economic security guarantees rather than explicit military ones, and
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Zelensky said the US had dropped its $500B back-payment demands.Β
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And now, thereβs a leaked draft doing the rounds, suggesting:Β
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The two will establish a joint βReconstruction Investment Fundβ
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Ukraine will tip in 50% of new mineral revenues until the fund hits a predetermined amount, and
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In exchange, the US will pledge to βprovide a long-term financial commitment to the development of a stable and economically prosperous Ukraineβ.Β
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The official text is TBC, so weβre taking the above with a quarry of salt for now. But word is the deal is still silent on any US security guarantees or ownership over the fund, though Trump just suggested it gives Ukraine βmilitary equipment and the right to fight onβ. Several key details will apparently also get ironed out via later talks.Β
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Meanwhile, both Russia and the EU are wary of being left out.
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Russiaβs Putin and the head of his sovereign wealth fund (gradually going broke) have both tried dangling carrots of their own, including a purported $300B up for grabs if the US fully dives back into the Russian oil and gas sector, and an unspecified minerals deal (π·πΊ) even featuring access to resources in Ukrainian lands invaded by Russian troops.
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Putin is likely seeking to undermine Ukraineβs negotiating position by likewise playing to Trumpβs more transactional instincts β basically, βwe can offer you a better dealβ.
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Interestingly, the EU also then offered to strike a βwin-winβ deal on Monday β the juryβs out whether this was just the EU being late, or a tactic to undermine Russiaβs offer and pressure the US into a more flexible position with Ukraine.
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Cool story Hansel, but whatβs next?
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Zelensky has now announced heβll travel to the US as early as this Friday, presumably to sign the deal with Trump himself.
INTRIGUEβS TAKE
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Itβs interesting to see the world adapt to the new presidentβs more transactional style:
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Zelensky simply said no to what he mustβve assumed were Trumpβs opening maximalist demands, but heβs now saying yes to a revised deal that not only lacks US security guarantees, but also lacks any meaningful Ukrainian commitment to hand mineral wealth to the US any time soon.
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Zelensky didnβt have a lot of options, but still β that outcome looks a lot like the status quo, yet it arguably gives Trump some kind of win back home; and that could help detoxify Trump-Zelensky ties, all just as Trump approaches critical direct talks with Putin.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREβ¦
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π°π΅Β North Korea: Supreme leader Kim Jong Un is apparently trying to weed out binge drinking among his North Korean cadres after an incident in which 40 county officials went on a βdrinking spreeβ. The hermit state has a long history of using alleged drunkenness as a pretext for purging party officials.Β
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π·πΈΒ Serbia: President Aleksandar VuΔiΔ has apologised after Serbia backed a UN resolution in New York condemning Russiaβs invasion of Ukraine. Russia, which has deep ties with Serbia, quickly accepted the apology, which featured VuΔiΔ suggesting the error was probably because he was βtired and overwhelmed.β
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π΅πΒ Philippines: Thousands have taken to the streets to commemorate the countryβs People Power Revolution day, despite President Marcos Jr excluding it from the official holiday list again. The day actually marks the 1986 ousting of his dictator father after nine long years of martial law.
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π¨π±Β Chile: An unspecified βdisruptionβ to a high-voltage transmission line has plunged 14 of Chileβs 16 regions into darkness, stranding subway passengers and freezing elevators, while hospitals, prisons, and government buildings fired up their generators. The government has urged citizens to stay home and stay calm.
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πΈπ³Β Senegal: Dakar has signed a peace deal with Casamance separatists in the countryβs south, potentially ending one of Africaβs longest-running conflicts which began in 1982. Neighbouring Guinea-Bissau brokered the deal, which gained momentum after 250 separatists surrendered their weapons back in 2023.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
The Intrigue jobs board is back!
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International Human Rights Law InternΒ @ Swiss Foreign Ministry in Bern
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Deputy Chief Development Officer of International Initiatives @ The Met in NYC
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Executive Assistant to HM Consul General @ British Consulate in Milan
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Head of Marine and Special Projects @ DHL in Abu Dhabi
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credits: Guo Qingshan on Xiaohongshu
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Notice anything about that landscape above? Shanghai-based designer Guo Qingshan shared this pic with a βpuppy mountainβ caption on Chinaβs Xiaohongshu (or RedNote) app and it quickly went viral β itβs now inspired tourists to flock to Yichang in Hubei province to see this giant mountain puppy head for themselves. Oh, the great wonders.
DAILY POLL
Do you think this mineral deal will make Ukraine safer? |
Yesterdayβs poll: How should Australia and New Zealand respond to China’s drills?
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π©π©π©π©π©π©Β πΊπ³ Push for more heads-up next time (68%)
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π¨β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ πΌ Chill, it’s legal (21%)
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β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ πΊπΈ Phone a friend (8%)
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β¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈβ¬οΈ βοΈ Other (write us!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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πΊπ³Β J.G: βA gentle reminder that it may be legal, but a heads up is warranted.β
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πΌ A.G: βImportant not to lose any moral high ground in the South China Sea.β
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πΊπ³Β Β L.C: βA difficult situation and one where there is no real correct response. Certainly, Australia or New Zealand won’t be conducting live fire exercises in the South China Sea. Fly more dronesβ¦ deterrence takes many forms.β
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βοΈ S.K: βWell when you are visited, it’s just good manners to reciprocate the visit, isn’t it?β
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 120k+ leaders each day. Itβs free to subscribe.