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Hi Intriguer. A tense feud between a married couple can be uncomfortable to witness. That’s been the vibe from the US-Israel alliance lately, particularly after the US abstained on a UN Security Council vote for an immediate ceasefire (and hostage release) in Gaza.
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While the White House says its decision to abstain on (rather than veto) the resolution doesn’t reflect any change in the US approach to Israel, this moment looks to me like the sharpest rift in Israel-US ties since my time serving there almost a decade ago.
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More in today’s briefing.
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– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
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📢 PSA – We’ll be taking a short break this Friday 29 March and Monday 1 April, but we’ll be back in your inbox from Tuesday 2nd.
TODAY’S NEWS
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US and UK sanction China-based firm over cyberattacks. The UK and US have announced sanctions against a China-based firm and several individuals after accusing them of being part of a years-long state-backed cyber operation. Their alleged aims were to harass critics of Beijing, steal trade secrets, and access the information of high-ranking politicians and government officials.
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Japan to sell fighter jets abroad. Cabinet has approved a plan to export next-generation fighter jets currently being developed jointly with Italy and the UK, in another shift in its postwar pacifist principles. The sale of the jets will be limited to 15 nations that have defence and technology transfer pacts with Japan.
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Bolsonaro stayed at Hungarian embassy. The former president of Brazil, Jair Bolsonaro, stayed at the Hungarian embassy in Brazil for two nights in February, shortly after police confiscated his passport and arrested former aides. While some say it was a bid for asylum to evade criminal charges against him, Bolsonaro’s lawyer insists the former leader was there to discuss politics with Hungarian diplomats.
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Major US bridge collapses after being hit by ship. A bridge in Baltimore has collapsed into the Patapsco River after being hit by a containership, sending multiple vehicles into the water. Initial reports suggest as many as 20 people may have fallen into the water, though it’s not clear what caused the ship to veer off course.
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Boeing C-suite to step down. Boeing’s top three executives are stepping down, including CEO Dave Calhoun, amidst a shake-up at the embattled aerospace company. The announcement came after Boeing’s three largest US airline customers pressed for a meeting to address the ongoing safety saga.
TOP STORY
UN Security Council calls for Gaza ceasefire and hostage release
US ambassador to the UN Linda Thomas-Greenfield votes to abstain on Monday’s resolution. Credits: UNPhoto.
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The UN Security Council has passed for the first time a resolution calling for an “immediate ceasefire” in Gaza and the “immediate and unconditional release of all hostages”, after a series of duelling vetoes from the US, Russia and China.
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The one-page resolution demands:
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an “immediate ceasefire for the month of Ramadan respected by all parties leading to a lasting sustainable ceasefire” [Ramadan ends 10 April]
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the “immediate and unconditional release of all hostages”, and
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the “lifting of all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale”.
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It passed with 14 votes in favour, while the US abstained. The US waved it through after the Council agreed to describe the ceasefire as “lasting” rather than “permanent”:
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The US prefers “lasting”, as it implies negotiations to sustain a ceasefire
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Russia dislikes the term because it’s imprecise and more open-ended
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The other sticking point for the US was around the draft’s refusal to directly condemn the Hamas October 7 attacks (rather than deploring “all acts of terrorism” more broadly) – still, the US opted not to use its veto.
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And now, the resolution’s passing has triggered global reactions:
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UN Secretary-General António Guterres, who’s just visited the region, tweeted: “This resolution must be implemented. Failure would be unforgivable.”
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Hamas welcomed the news and said it stood ready for an immediate ‘prisoner swap’ with Israel, while the Palestinian envoy to the UN said this vote “must signal the end of this assault of atrocities against our people”.
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For his part, Israel’s ambassador questioned why the UNSC immediately condemned Friday’s terrorist attack in Moscow and yet still hasn’t condemned the Hamas attacks on Israel back in October.
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And Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu went further, alleging his US ally had “abandoned its policy in the UN”; warning the resolution “gives Hamas hope that international pressure will allow them to accept a ceasefire without the release of our abductees”; and cancelling a high-level delegation to the US.
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So what happens now?
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UNSC resolutions are legally-binding, although there are two ‘buts’ here:
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First, the US ambassador actually described this resolution as “nonbinding” – she didn’t elaborate, though it could be an effort to distinguish this resolution from the UN Charter’s Chapter VII (the legal basis for binding resolutions).
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And second, UNSC resolutions aren’t readily enforceable.
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So, binding UNSC demands notwithstanding, next steps here still largely depend on decisions on the ground – in this case, decisions by Hamas and Israel.
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And in the meantime, the civilian toll in Gaza keeps mounting, famine there is imminent, and the Israeli hostages are approaching six months in Hamas captivity.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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So… will Hamas and Israel comply with this resolution, fully and immediately? While we may yearn to tell you a ‘yes’, our assessment suggests it’s still a ‘no’.
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First, it’s hard to see Hamas “immediately and unconditionally“ releasing all its hostages without a ceasefire in place first. Rather, Hamas has long claimed:
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It physically can’t release any hostages without a ceasefire in place
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Its hostages are its leverage to free Palestinians in Israeli prisons, and
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Its initial response suggests it now sees these UNSC demands as a ‘prisoner swap’ rather than any “unconditional” release of hostages.
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Second, it’s hard to see Israel implementing an “immediate ceasefire” without Hamas agreeing to release all Israeli hostages. Indeed, Netanyahu’s initial response shows how he continues to see the two as firmly linked, and (despite some bilateral fireworks) the US still says it’ll “have Israel’s back”.
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So the result here looks to us like an impasse, which gets resolved through force or negotiations. And the long-running negotiations in the region (involving Egypt and Qatar) show no signs of landing before Ramadan ends in two weeks.
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Still, this UNSC vote might nudge those same negotiations along by putting the weight of international law and opinion behind three key demands, which mediators can now hammer home: let the hostages out, let the aid in, and stop the conflict.
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Also worth noting:
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A US abstention on Israel is unusual but not unprecedented: it abstained on a UNSC resolution in December calling for more aid to Gaza. It likewise abstained in 2016 when the Council described certain Israeli settlements as “a flagrant violation under international law”. Israel announced (🇮🇱) a major new land seizure on Friday.
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The US has vetoed three previous resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza, while Russia and China blocked a US-sponsored resolution last week, and another last year.
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The US reportedly accounts for 69% of Israel’s weapons imports, with an additional 30% coming from Germany, and the remaining 1% from Italy (which has now ceased sales).
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The head of the UNRWA (the UN agency for Palestine refugees) says Israel told the UN on Sunday it will no longer approve UNRWA food convoys into northern Gaza. Israel is yet to comment.
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MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇵 North Korea: Kim Jong Un’s sister, Kim Yo Jong, has revealed that Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has requested a summit with the North Korean leader. She says a meeting with her brother is unlikely without a policy shift by Tokyo, including its focus on North Korea’s abduction of Japanese citizens in the 1970s and 1980s.
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🇫🇷 France: Local authorities have raised the country’s terror alert to its highest level following Friday’s deadly ISIS-K terror attack in Moscow. The move comes ahead of the Paris Summer Olympics in July.
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🇳🇿 New Zealand: Parliament has ratified a free trade agreement between New Zealand and the EU – it’ll come into force on 1 May. The deal will benefit Kiwi exports such as beef, lamb, butter, cheese and (yes) kiwifruit, while also helping European clothes, cars, and wine exports.
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🇪🇨 Ecuador: The bodies of Brigitte García, the country’s youngest mayor, and her press officer were found in a rental car on Sunday, in what appears to be the latest in a bout of violence against political figures in Ecuador. Organised criminals assassinated a presidential candidate last year.
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🇱🇾 Libya: Authorities have pledged to investigate claims of rampant mismanagement and corruption in the country’s national oil company. Proceeds from smuggled Libyan oil are reportedly being sold to Sudan’s RSF militia for its violent civil war against the Sudanese military.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here’s what people have been googling around the world
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🇬🇷 Greeks googled ‘Greece national day’ as the country commemorated yesterday’s 203rd anniversary of the country’s war of independence, which ended four centuries of Ottoman rule.
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Folks in 🇮🇳 India wanted updates on ‘billionaires’, as a global rich list found Mumbai now has 92 of them, the most in Asia though still behind London (97) and New York (119).
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And ‘Iswaran’ was the hot topic in 🇸🇬 Singapore, as the former transport minister was hit with eight new corruption charges in a city-state that’s long cherished its squeaky clean reputation.
VIBE OF THE DAY
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Every politician brings their own vibe, right? That’s kinda the point. But Estonian member of Riigikogu (parliament) Rain Epler brings his vibe to a whole other dimension. When asked what haircut he wanted, the former environment minister simply answered ‘yes’. We’ve christened his look… ‘the Tallinn taper’.
DAILY POLL
Do you think the UN Security Council resolution will bring about tangible change in Gaza? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think this latest Moscow terrorist attack means?
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🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🙅 Putin has dealt with such attacks before, and nothing will change (32%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✊ The Russian people will blame Putin for this lapse (3%)
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🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🇷🇺 The Russian people will rally around the flag (12%)
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚔️ Putin will use it to escalate against Ukraine (52%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (1%)
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Your two cents:
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🙅 P.T.P: “People will give sotto voce lip service to the Ukraine link because it is ‘official’ and easy, while staying subconsciously aware of its unlikelihood. The line about Ukraine will not be enough to kindle any fervor for further mobilization, which might reach to their real personal interests.”
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⚔️ D.H.P: “Putin will blame Ukraine but there is really little escalation to be made that isn’t being done every single day.”
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🇷🇺 M.C.M: “Traumatic events of such nature tend to bring people together, even if at any other time they would rather not be in the same room. It remains to be seen if the Kremlin will be able to twist this tragedy to its advantage vis-a-vis Ukraine (as they clearly want to).”