:root {–wt-primary-color: #2D2DC8;–wt-text-on-primary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-secondary-color: #F9FAFB;–wt-text-on-secondary-color: #030712;–wt-tertiary-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-tertiary-color: #222222;–wt-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-background-color: #222222;–wt-subscribe-background-color: #FFFFFF;–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color: #222222;–wt-header-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto,”Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-body-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-button-font: “Roboto”, ui-sans-serif, system-ui, -apple-system, BlinkMacSystemFont, “Segoe UI”, Roboto, “Helvetica Neue”, Arial, “Noto Sans”, sans-serif, “Apple Color Emoji”, “Segoe UI Emoji”, “Segoe UI Symbol”, “Noto Color Emoji”;–wt-border-radius: 8px}.bg-wt-primary { background-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.text-wt-primary { color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.border-wt-primary { border-color: var(–wt-primary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-primary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-primary { color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-primary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-primary-color); }.bg-wt-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.text-wt-secondary { color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.border-wt-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-secondary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-secondary { color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-secondary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-secondary-color); }.bg-wt-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-tertiary { color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-tertiary { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.text-wt-text-on-tertiary { color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.border-wt-text-on-tertiary { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-tertiary-color); }.bg-wt-background { background-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.text-wt-background { color: var(–wt-background-color); }.border-wt-background { border-color: var(–wt-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-background-color); }.bg-wt-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-subscribe-background-color); }.bg-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { background-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.text-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.border-wt-text-on-subscribe-background { border-color: var(–wt-text-on-subscribe-background-color); }.rounded-wt { border-radius: var(–wt-border-radius); }.wt-header-font { font-family: var(–wt-header-font); }.wt-body-font { font-family: var(–wt-body-font); }.wt-button-font { font-family: var(–wt-button-font); }input:focus { –tw-ring-color: transparent !important; }li a { word-break: break-word; }@media only screen and (max-width:667px) {.mob-stack {display: block !important;width: 100% !important;}.mob-w-full {width: 100% !important;}}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOlCnqEu92Fr1MmWUlfBBc4AMP6lQ.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOjCnqEu92Fr1Mu51TzBic6CsTYl4BO.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOmCnqEu92Fr1Mu4mxKKTU1Kg.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Roboto’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 400;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/roboto/v29/KFOkCnqEu92Fr1Mu51xIIzIXKMny.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: normal;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiByp8kv8JHgFVrLCz7Z1xlFd2JQEk.woff2’) format(‘woff2’);}@font-face {font-family: ‘Poppins’;font-style: italic;font-weight: 700;font-display: swap;src: url(‘https://fonts.gstatic.com/s/poppins/v22/pxiDyp8kv8JHgFVrJJLmy15VF9eOYktMqg.woff2’) format(‘woff2′);}.table-base, .table-c, .table-h { border: 1px solid #C0C0C0; }.table-c { padding:5px; background-color:#FFFFFF; }.table-c p { color: #2D2D2D; font-family:’Helvetica’,Arial,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }.table-h { padding:5px; background-color:#F1F1F1; }.table-h p { color: #2A2A2A; font-family:’Trebuchet MS’,’Lucida Grande’,Tahoma,sans-serif !important; overflow-wrap: break-word; }
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The latest in Ukraine |
2️⃣ Meme of the day |
3️⃣ A 27% chance that Brazil bans Twitter |
Hi Intriguer. It’s been ten days since Israel hit Iran’s compound in Damascus. Bloomberg reported overnight that retaliatory attacks against “military and government targets in Israel are imminent”, which some speculated could be via drone strike by one of Iran’s regional proxies.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So Lufthansa suspended flights to Tehran, there’ve been reports (and denials) of Iran closing its airspace, foreign embassies in Tel Aviv have dusted off their contingency plans, and the US has restated its commitment to Israel’s security. But the night has now passed without incident. So, what’s going on?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
A few possibilities. This latest US ‘pre-bunking’ might’ve pushed Iran’s timeline out; Iran’s timeline might just be longer (or faker) than feared; or Iran might just be waiting for better launch weather (it’s now cloudy in Israel and Iran).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
While we continue to track this one, today’s briefing gets you up to speed on some interesting developments in Ukraine.
THE HEADLINES
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
US warns Iran against targeting Israel.
President Biden says the US believes Iran is planning a “significant attack” against Israel in the next few days. He has sought to reassure Israel (and warn Iran) that America’s “commitment to Israel’s security against these threats from Iran and their proxies is ironclad […] we’re going to do all we can to protect Israel’s security”.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
South Korean opposition pockets parliamentary win.
The centre-left Democratic Party and its splinter parties jointly won 175 of 300 seats in the National Assembly yesterday, delivering a solid blow to President Yoon Suk Yeol and his more conservative People Power Party (PPP). PPP party leader Han Dong-hoon has now resigned and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, an ally of the president, has offered to follow suit.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Israeli strike kills sons of Hamas leader.
An Israeli airstrike in Gaza killed three sons of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh yesterday (Wednesday), with Hamas reporting the death of four of his grandchildren too. Haniyeh’s sons – reportedly Hamas members – are among the highest-profile figures to be killed in the war so far. Haniyeh later told Al-Jazeera: “Anyone who believes that targeting my sons will push Hamas to change its position is delusional.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
EU passes migration legislation after lengthy deadlock.
The EU Parliament has passed a migration and asylum pact after eight years of political deadlock. The reform, which will now have to be rubber-stamped by the bloc’s 27 members, aims to establish firmer common rules to manage the processing and relocation of migrants and asylum seekers.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Apple warns users targeted by spyware.
Apple has warned users in India and 91 other countries that they were likely victims of a “mercenary spyware attack”, adding that users were being targeted specifically “because of who you are or what you do”. The company sent similar warnings to a group of Indian lawmakers and journalists last year, some of whom later found evidence of spyware on their personal devices.
TOP STORY
US approves emergency weapons sale to Ukraine as ammunition woes deepen
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
The US State Department has approved the emergency sale of $138M in military kit for Ukraine to help keep Kyiv’s Hawk air-defence systems online.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Compared to the $75B in assistance the US has already sent, yesterday’s move might seem like a blip. But it’s now one of the few ways (along with transferring seized Iranian arms) that the US can still help Kyiv to defend itself, while a $60B assistance package remains blocked in Congress.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Against that backdrop, Ukraine’s other Western allies have been busy:
-
Estonia has found a million spare shells and rockets, mainly from non-European suppliers
-
The Czechs are leading an initiative to pool funds to buy another 800,000 or more artillery shells for Ukraine, and
-
Germany says it’s delivering another 10,000 shells, with promises of 100,000 more to come, plus 200 military vehicles.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
To put that in perspective, Russia is firing around 10,000 shells per day, five times what Ukraine is able to fire back. That ratio is projected to blow out to ten-to-one within weeks.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
In terms of production, Russia produces around 250,000 shells per month (and rising), while Ukraine hopes to start its own production of NATO-standard shells later this year. Meanwhile, Europe produces around 50,000 per month, and the US has doubled its own monthly production to around 30,000 since 2022.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So while Ukrainian, European and US military production is all increasing, and Ukrainian drone strikes deep into Russia aim to throw sand into the gears of Moscow’s war machine, the numbers still don’t look great for Ukraine right now.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Over the longer term, NATO ministers are planning for the broader alliance (rather than the US) to play a key coordination role for Kyiv, mulling the creation of a $100B five-year fund to ‘Trump-proof’ support for Ukraine.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky fears his country’s dwindling stocks won’t allow it that kind of time. On Monday, he told CNN “Ukraine will lose the war” and millions could die if Congress doesn’t pass the $60B aid package.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
He’s referring in part to expectations that Russia will launch an offensive in the late spring and early summer. Despite staggering losses, Russia has managed to reorganise its war economy, reconstitute its military ranks, and circumvent Western sanctions by sourcing supplies from China, Iran, and North Korea.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
So what’s Ukraine asking for? Shells and air defence. As the above numbers suggest, both sides are relying on mass artillery to dislodge their entrenched positions along the 1000km frontline, while denying the other air superiority.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
And that’s why, as Kyiv’s allies attempt to scrape weapons packages together, these are still not enough to plug the gap left by the US. Which in turn is why – again – all eyes remain on Congress as it reconvenes this week.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
One way to think about all this is that – as with NATO spending – Europe is now stepping up to shoulder more of its own defence. And that, in turn, might offer a dash of vindication for those who’ve cited this exact issue when explaining their resistance to US support for Ukraine in the first place.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
But looking out at the world right now, with a real risk of deterioration in Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia, you’d be forgiven for thinking that maybe this kind of vindication will end up looking short-sighted, if not Pyrrhic.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Also worth noting:
-
The Ukrainian Parliament just passed a controversial new mobilisation law to, among other things, grant military authorities the power to issue draft notices using an electronic system.
-
35 or so public figures, including actor Mark Hamill, political scientist Francis Fukuyama, and Chef José Andrés, have signed an open letter calling on Congress to pass the Ukraine aid package.
A MESSAGE FROM GROUND NEWS
Be informed, not instructed
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
See every side of the story with Ground News, a website and app that gathers articles from sources worldwide so readers can get diverse perspectives, compare coverage and stay fully informed.
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
For every breaking news story, instantly access every article published on it with context on each source’s political leaning, parent company funding it, and how reliable their reporting is.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇹🇼 Taiwan: China’s leader Xi Jinping hosted former Taiwanese president Ma Ying-jeou yesterday (Wednesday) as Xi seeks to embrace Taiwan’s Beijing-friendly players (while icing out the independence-leaning government). On the possibility of war, Ma said “the Chinese people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait will definitely have enough wisdom to handle cross-Strait disputes peacefully”.
-
🇮🇪 Ireland: The Dáil, the lower house of Ireland’s parliament, has confirmed Simon Harris (37) as Ireland’s next prime minister, making him the country’s youngest-ever Taoiseach. The former education minister replaces Leo Varadkar, who resigned unexpectedly last month.
-
🇹🇻 Tuvalu: Officials say Tuvalu (pop. 11,000) will now ratify its ‘Falepili Union’ with Australia, after months of delays due to elections and concerns that the deal impacts the Pacific nation’s sovereignty. The treaty facilitates more migration to Australia, while granting Canberra a say over Tuvalu’s future security arrangements with others (like China).
-
🇪🇨 Ecuador: Former Ecuadorian vice-president Jorge Glas has been hospitalised after falling ill, days after he was arrested on more corruption charges in a widely-criticised raid on Mexico’s embassy in Ecuador. Mexico had granted Glas asylum hours before he was taken to a maximum security prison.
-
🇲🇦 Morocco: A local court has handed a Moroccan activist a five-year prison sentence for criticising his country’s ties to Israel, finding him guilty of insulting a constitutional institution. Morocco normalised ties with Israel in 2020 as part of the US-brokered Abraham Accords.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Here are some of the events folks are betting on around the world
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
(We’re not endorsing this, just thought you’d be interested to know the odds)
-
Punters are giving Senator Tim Scott (South Carolina) a 22% chance of becoming Donald Trump’s VP pick, ahead of Kristi Noem (South Dakota’s governor) and Tulsi Gabbard (ex-member of Congress).
-
The most likely country to leave the EU by the end of 2025 is… no country at all (14%), followed by Italy and Greece at veeeery long odds.
-
And as Elon Musk’s spat with Brazil heats up, markets are pricing in a 27% chance that Brazil will just ban Twitter/X entirely before July.
MEME OF THE DAY
The work of our resident meme lord (Jeremy) is now available on Instagram (@DiploHumour)
-
Estée Lauder once coined the ‘lipstick index’ to explain why makeup sales surge in a recession (as women seek out lower-price luxuries)
-
Former Fed chair Alan Greenspan had his ‘briefs index’, seeing any drop in men’s underwear sales as a possible warning sign (because men only buy undies when they must, so a drop suggests lower income), and
-
A Wharton professor once had a ‘hemline theory’ on why women wore shorter skirts before the 1929 crash (to show off their pricey stockings).
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Now, it’s time to add to that pantheon of deep economic thinking with… our very own ‘tight jeans index’. IMF? You’re welcome.
DAILY POLL
Do you see a real risk of war spreading in our world? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think the US can still walk and chew gum at the same time?
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 💪 Yep – it’s juggling several world crises right now (55%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
🟨🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️ 😨 Nope – and its adversaries and allies both know it (42%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (3%)
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Your two cents:
-
💪 E: “It still can, but isn’t as eager (or welcome) as it once was.”
-
✍️ S.A: “The US seems to be in denial of their limits and a changing global landscape. Yes, the US is involved in many conflicts and remains a key player in the economic and cultural sphere, but the increasing internal division and instability is not going unnoticed.”
-
💪 M.C.M: “The US can do pretty much anything it wishes to do, IF its political class is united. Bipartisan consensus is the Achilles’ heel: you have it, the Moon’s the limit.”
-
✍️ SzKB: “Shouldn’t have to. I want Europe to step up and act as an effective stabilising force in its neighbourhood, maybe same for Japan and Australia. Multipolarism could be beneficial to friends of freedom and Western civilisation too.”
-
😨 C.G: “US foreign policy changes with each passing administration – it is hard to enact lasting change when that’s the case.”
p span[style*=”font-size”] { line-height: 1.6; }
Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.