🌍 US coalition strikes Houthis in Yemen

Hi Intriguer. All eyes will be on the Taiwan presidential election this weekend, where ~20 million eligible voters (one million of them first-time voters) will head to the polls. I’ll be watching to see how the outcome will impact the future of US-China relations, and for the spectacle of the election itself (which some folks have likened to a “circus at the Super Bowl”).

It was an eventful day in the Middle East yesterday. We’ve got some thoughts on what the US-led airstrikes against the Houthi rebels might mean for the region.

P.S. I’ll be flying the Intrigue flag at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, next week, where world leaders, civil society, and private institutions (plus the hangers on) tackle global issues under the 2024 theme of ‘Rebuilding Trust’. As usual, we’ll bring you the tea.  

– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder

South Africa makes its case against Israel. Yesterday, South Africa addressed the UN’s top court (ICJ), arguing that Israel’s military actions in Gaza violated the 1948 Genocide Convention and sought a court order to halt hostilities. Israel, which denies the allegations, will respond today. In related news, the International Criminal Court (ICC) announced it would include attacks against journalists in its war crimes investigation in Gaza.

Sunak visits Ukraine bearing gifts. British PM Rishi Sunak made a surprise visit to Kyiv, where he announced the UK would provide Ukraine with £2.5B of military aid, including drones, long-range missiles, and artillery shells in the coming year. Senior military officials reportedly criticised the decision not to pledge more long-term support.

Chinese deflation worries persist. Consumer prices in China fell for a third month in December, whilst yearly export figures declined for the first time since 2016. The newly released economic data will do little to address worries the world’s second-biggest economy is falling into a deflationary spiral.

Tech giants go neck and neck. Microsoft briefly overtook Apple as the world’s most valuable company on Thursday. Microsoft’s shares have performed well thanks to enthusiasm over the company’s investment in OpenAI.

INTRIGUE’S TAKE

😮‍💨 Phew, got all that? Let’s focus on the more consequential of the two (seemingly unrelated) incidents – the US-led air strikes.

Firstly, the strikes are unlikely to achieve their aim of deterring the Houthis – after all, eight years of brutal conflict with Saudi Arabia only seems to have emboldened them.

Secondly, destroying the Houthis’ capability to launch missiles and drones is no easy task. Take a look at this excellent 3D map of Yemen (the Houthis control the northwestern portion of the country, centred around the capital Sana’a).

That topography is nightmare fuel for any military strategist, let alone one planning a limited attack against a highly mobile, battle-hardened militia. And we must assume the Iranians will be only too happy to restock any damaged Houthi merchandise.

The US and its allies are now in a difficult position. They clearly felt they could no longer stand idly by while an Iranian-supported militia brought global shipping to its knees.

But, by striking the Houthis, they’ve implicitly locked themselves into an escalation spiral. If the Houthi attacks continue, the US and its allies will feel obliged to respond again. And if the Houthi attacks escalate… well, let’s cross that bridge when we come to it.

Also worth noting:

• The Houthis may have made a critical error – upsetting Elon Musk. Tesla’s German plant has been unable to get necessary parts due to shifts in shipping routes to avoid the Red Sea.

• A Houthi armed drone costs ~$20,000, while the advanced missiles used to shoot them down cost over $1.2M.

• Oil prices jumped nearly 2% on the news of the US-led strikes.

MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…

1. 🇨🇳 China: US-based AI companies OpenAI, Anthropic, and Cohere held secret backchannel talks with Chinese AI experts from several state-backed institutions last year. The meetings covered sensitive issues around AI’s impact on misinformation and social cohesion – the US, UK, and Chinese governments say they were aware of the meetings.

2. 🇩🇪 Germany: Chancellor Olaf Scholz condemned a plan discussed by the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party to deport millions of people of ‘non-German’ origin. Polling suggests the AfD is Germany's second most popular party, with around 20% support.

3. 🇷🇺 Russia: Imprisoned opposition figure Alexei Navalny has appeared on video for the first time since his relocation to a penal colony near Kharp in Russia’s polar north, where temperatures regularly drop below -30C (-22F). Ever the thorn in Putin’s side, Navalny is suing prison authorities for conditions, including mealtimes and the withholding of religious texts.

4. 🇵🇭 Philippines: Indonesian President Joko “Jokowi” Widodo stopped in Manila to discuss security and energy cooperation with Philippines President Ferdinand “Bong Bong” Marcos Jr. The visit reportedly focused on protecting the South China Sea against China’s ambitious territorial claims.

5. 🇧🇮 Burundi: Burundi has closed its borders with Rwanda after accusing it of supporting a rebel attack on 22 December. Interior Minister Martin Niteretse said Rwandan President Paul Kagame was “a bad neighbour… we stopped all relations with him until he returns to better feelings.”

EXTRA INTRIGUE

🔮 Last week, we promised to publish some of your geopolitical predictions for 2024. Here are some of our favourites: 

• C.S: “Latin American fruit-producing countries are struggling with a second year due to El Nino, a very real risk for emptier supermarkets' fresh produce shelves in Europe, the USA, and further afield.”

• J.B: “European parliamentary elections will see a lurch to the far right threatening European solidarity towards funding and support for Ukraine.”

• L.M: “Tensions will continue to rise over which nations can claim sovereignty over extended continental shelf regions in the Arctic.”

• R.M: “Armenia and Azerbaijan will sign a peace agreement recognizing each other's territorial integrities, but the Zanguezur corridor will remain a contentious issue.”

• F: “Saudi Arabia and Russia will cut back more oil supplies to increase gas prices during the [US] election season.” 

• J.P: “Interest rates won't fall by as much as markets are currently forecasting.”

• N: “At least one country will elect/appoint their first nonbinary, trans, or female leader.”

• G.S: “The aliens will arrive, and who knows what will happen”?

🙏🏼 Thank you all for your submissions; reading through them was great fun!

CHART OF THE DAY

Visualising the hottest year ever

According to scientists from the EU’s Copernicus Climate Service, global temperatures were, on average, 1.48℃ (2.66℉) above those recorded in the latter half of the 19th century. 2023 was significantly hotter than 2016, the hottest year before last year.

FRIDAY QUIZ

🍛 Today is a particularly delicious day: International Chicken Curry Day! We hope you celebrate with your favourite kind, perhaps a Chicken Tikka Masala, a Japanese Pork Katsu Curry, or a Thai Green Curry (an Intrigue team fave).