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IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ The latest US intel threat assessment |
2️⃣ A wholesome new social media app? |
3️⃣ Chart of the day |
Hi Intriguer. Next time you’re in LA, drive by the bungalow where famed (if controversial) poet and writer Charles Bukowski once lived. He penned some sharp lines, but I’ve always loved this one: “The problem with the world is that the intelligent people are full of doubts and the stupid ones are full of confidence.”
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I’m convinced there’s a smart middle, and it might’ve been venture capitalist Marc Andreessen who gave it a name: “strong opinions, loosely held”. I.e., have conviction without being dogmatic.
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Maybe keep that in mind for the latest US intelligence threat assessment, which leads today’s briefing.
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P.S – Curious how NATO’s smallest member by population (Iceland) sees the world right now? Don’t miss our unfiltered chat with Thordis Kolbrun Gylfadottir, who’s just wrapped as foreign minister. It’s online tomorrow (Friday), 9.30am ET. Register now!
THE HEADLINES
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Trump announces 25% auto tariffs.
The US president has unveiled 25% tariffs on all cars and parts coming into the US, to spur the domestic auto industry. Shares of General Motors fell 3% on the announcement.
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Several US troops missing in Lithuania.
Four US soldiers have gone missing during a military drill near Lithuania’s border with Belarus. Authorities have found their vehicle underwater, but there’s been no official confirmation of death.
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US military build-up in Diego Garcia.
At least five B-2 stealth bombers and seven C-17A transports have arrived at (or are en route towards) the Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean. It’s unclear what the build-up might be for, though it coincides with resumed strikes on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen.
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Sudanese military recaptures Khartoum airport.
The military says it’s now recaptured Khartoum’s international airport, bringing it a step closer to pushing a rival paramilitary out of the capital city. The military now has the upper hand after two years of civil war, though its rivals still control parts of Darfur.
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A SpaceX backdoor for investment from China?
Elon Musk’s SpaceX, a contractor for the US military, is reportedly allowing China-based investors to buy shares so long as the money comes through discreet financial hubs like the Caymans, according to court case documents compiled by ProPublica.
Australian election call “imminent”.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has announced he plans to call an election “imminently’ (probably Friday morning), with the vote held sometime in May. Polls suggest it’ll be a close race against the conservative opposition.
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TOP STORY
US sounds the alarm with intelligence warning
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It’s a terrifying thrilling time to work in national security — folks from Warsaw to Seoul are talking about getting nukes, Tehran is ramping up its uranium enrichment, and ceasefires seem to have as much durability as group chat security protocols.
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So when the US dropped its latest annual Intelligence Community threat assessment? We were naturally curious.
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Here are the top four quotes you need to know –
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“Fentanyl and other synthetic opioids remain the most lethal drugs trafficked into the United States”
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For the first time in more than a decade, this annual report ditches any reference to climate change and the risk of humanitarian and environmental crises leaving nations more vulnerable to instability, competition, and conflict.
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Rather, in presenting the report to Congress, Trump’s new spymaster (Gabbard) said environmental awareness is a given, so the report instead focuses on direct threats.
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So opening on fentanyl, she noted US deaths are now down 33% from last year. But interestingly, the threat assessment still highlights China’s fentanyl supply chain role, notwithstanding last year’s reports of renewed US-China cooperation.
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“Russia, China, Iran and North Korea—individually and collectively—are challenging U.S. interests”
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The annual assessment has listed these rivals for years. But seeing Russia listed again in 2025? That’s intriguing given Trump 2.0’s halt to cyber operations, resumption of leader-level calls, and his pause in aid and intel with Kyiv (all badged as pro-peace).
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Still, the paper defends US talks with Moscow, arguing “Russia’s growing confidence in its battlefield,” and “increased risk of nuclear war,” create an urgency to end the war.
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“China presents the most comprehensive and robust military threat to U.S. national security”
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Remember when Kamala Harris answered that Iran was the top US adversary? Critics said the candidate was off-base, though giving the more accurate answer (China) would’ve been fraught also: how do you then maintain functional ties with Xi Jinping once you win?
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Anyway, Trump 2.0’s rhetoric also arguably now uses kiddie gloves on China, throwing more shade against, say, Canada. So it’s worth looking not just at words, but moves: his spymaster just wrapped a visit through the Indo-Pacific and his defence secretary lands there tomorrow, both with a China focus.
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“Kim remains committed to increasing the number of North Korea’s nuclear warheads and improving its missile capabilities to threaten the Homeland”
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Just a day after the US dropped this report, Pyongyang dedicated a full state media cycle to showing off its new AI drones and military aircraft. Of course, it’s impossible to know if the drones were really AI-piloted or there’s some guy off-camera with a joystick.
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But either way, with Kim Jong-un helping Putin’s war, North Korean arms now carry that label you hear at defence shows to pump up valuations, or at presidential briefings to spice-up warnings: they’re ‘battle-tested’.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
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This seems as good a moment as any to flag the ‘reverse Nixon’ concept doing the rounds: whereas Nixon cozied up to Mao to draw him away from Russia (the top rival), some say Trump is now cosying up to Putin to draw him away from Xi (today’s top rival).
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But there’s lots to ponder there — first, whether this idea is actually shaping Trump’s thinking, or whether it’s just some kind of intellectual scaffolding erected by others.
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Second, whether it’s even necessary, given how fraught Sino-Russia ties have been historically (and still are, despite their ‘no limits’ declarations).
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Third, whether pulling a reverse Nixon would even work, given the risk a US softening towards Moscow could instead just embolden both Russia and China in their regions.
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Then fourth, and even if you answer all ‘yes’ above, whether it’s worth the current constellation of startled allies the US would otherwise need to counter China.
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Also worth noting:
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If you’re into numbers, this latest US threat assessment mentions Russia 112 times, China 103, Iran 57, and North Korea 32 times.
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The report also notes ISIS is plotting attacks to undermine the new government in Syria.
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Reporting recently emerged from Amwaj Media that Tehran could be mulling a request to take part in UAE-facilitated talks with Washington.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇰🇷 South Korea: At least 24 people have lost their lives in South Korea’s worst-ever wildfires in the south-east, fuelled by strong dry winds. Seoul has deployed thousands of firefighters and soldiers (with support from US military choppers) in an attempt to halt the flames that’ve already displaced 23,000 people.
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🇪🇸 Spain: Economic data from Spain’s national statistics institute confirms the country significantly outperformed other major EU economies last year. Spain notched up a cool 3.2% in growth, while France and Italy grew by ~1% and Germany contracted 0.2%.
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🇵🇭 Philippines: US Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth (of group chat fame) is set to travel to the Philippines tomorrow (Friday) for South China Sea talks with his Philippine counterpart. He’ll then head to Japan, which is currently fretting about the durability of its US alliance.
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🇦🇷 Argentina: The Milei administration has announced it’ll declassify official documents related to Nazis who fled to Argentina after WWII, plus archives relating to Argentina’s former military dictatorship. The move stems from a request first lodged by a US senator for Montana (Steve Daines).
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🇸🇦 Saudi Arabia: Tesla is set to launch in Saudi Arabia, in a sign the Kingdom and Elon Musk have mended ties. Things got awkward back in 2018 when Musk announced he’d secured Saudi funding to take Tesla private, but a subsequent lawsuit revealed spicy texts with the Saudis, who then invested in a Tesla rival.
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EXTRA INTRIGUE
Meanwhile in other worlds:
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Science: 23andMe, a once popular genetic testing site, has filed for bankruptcy in an effort to speed up its sale (and that of the genetic data of almost 15 million people worldwide).
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Tech: A new social media app called ‘Sez Us’ will punish rage bait, while promoting content that leads to civilised discussions.
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Cinema: Indian censors have blocked the domestic distribution of the internationally acclaimed film Santosh, due in part to its portrayal of Indian police.
CHART OF THE DAY
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Brazil’s Supreme Court just accepted criminal charges against former president Jair Bolsonaro and seven acolytes for allegedly plotting a coup to remain in power after he lost the 2022 election. The country’s top prosecutor argues Bolsonaro launched “crescendoing anti-democratic rhetoric” from 2021 which culminated in the Jan. 8 2023 riots, when crowds stormed and ransacked government buildings in Brasília.
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This will be the first trial for an attempted coup in Brazil’s republican history — a milestone in a country long marked by political ruptures. Justices aim to hold the trial this year, seeking to avoid proximity with the 2026 presidential race. The Brazilian Report has been following the case and its implications in-depth — subscribe here for more (Intriguers get a 35% discount).
DAILY POLL
Which of the listed challenges do you think the US should prioritise most? |
Yesterday’s poll: Do you think these protests will change anything in Turkey?
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🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🥱 Nope, Erdogan has an iron grip on power (70%)
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🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✊ Yep, Turks won’t give up on their democracy (29%)
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⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write us!) (1%)
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Your two cents:
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🥱 C.P.C: “He’s survived bigger protests by cracking down brutally. He’ll survive this one too.”
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✊ E.D: “As a Turkish person, I can safely say that despite the increasing oppression and fascism of the Erdogan regime, there is nothing that can stop us in pursuit of justice and democracy.”
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✍️ R.W: “Erdogan has so inserted himself militarily and politically in so many areas that the support of democracies for protesters and Imamoglu is muted at best.“
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