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IN TODAYโS EDITION
1๏ธโฃ US backs Venezuelan opposition leader |
2๏ธโฃ Diplomats on the move |
3๏ธโฃ Today in history |
Hi Intriguer. One of the things I miss most about the foreign service is getting to visit colleagues posted to exotic corners of the world. Be it Mumbai, Brussels, Jakarta, or even Honolulu (yes, some are lucky enough to score this gig).
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But some postings are more exciting than others, and are often located in countries less accessible to the average globetrotter, like Iran or Cuba. The diplomats whoโve served in those postings tend to have the most colourful stories.
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One of my former colleagues is currently serving in such a posting, getting to see the latest political developments on the ground in Venezuela. Iโd give anything to be able to have a drink with them right now and hear whatโs going on there. In lieu of that, weโll dive into Venezuela for our top story today.
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P.S: Have you completed our audience survey yet? Two participants will be drawn at random to win either a $50 Amazon gift card or a bundle of Intrigue merch.
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P.P.S. – Welcome to our newest Intriguers whoโve just joined us from The Ruck! We recently acquired the national security newsletter, and weโre chuffed to have you onboard.
THE HEADLINES
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Indiaโs second-richest man charged by US.
Billionaire Gautam Adani and seven others have been charged with fraud by US prosecutors. They are accused of paying millions in bribes to Indian officials in exchange for contracts for their renewable energy business, and concealing it from US investors. Shares of Adani Group fell over 10% on Thursday morning.
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Ukraine launches British-French Storm Shadow missiles into Russia.
For the first time, Ukraine launched British-French made Storm Shadow cruise missiles into Russia on Wednesday, according to reports – one day after using US-made long-range missiles. While Kyivโs Defence Minister refused to confirm or deny the reports, Moscow had previously warned that using Western-made weapons deep into Russian territory would mark a major escalation. Meanwhile, Russia launched an intercontinental ballistic missile into Ukraine for the first time on Thursday, just after Putin changed the countryโs nuclear doctrine.
Nvidia stocks slump as investors expect more.
The chipmakerโs revenue hit $35.1B in Q3, nearly doubling its results from the same period last year. Despite this, Nvidia shares fell after the company predicted its revenue growth would slow, disappointing investorsโ sky-high expectations. Nvidia stocks have almost quadrupled since January, making it the most valuable company in the world.
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Trump names his NATO ambassador.
The president-elect has chosen former acting Attorney General Matt Whitaker to serve as US ambassador to NATO, a military alliance Trump has been critical of in the past. In his announcement, Trump said Whitaker would โstrengthen relationships with our NATO Allies, and stand firm in the face of threats to Peace and Stability.โ
US vetos Gaza ceasefire resolution.
Fourteen of the Security Councilโs 15 members voted in favour of a draft resolution which called for an immediate ceasefire and the return of all hostages. The US said the draft lacked โa linkage between a ceasefire and the release of hostagesโ and would send a dangerous message to Hamas. This is the fourth time the US has vetoed a ceasefire resolution at the UNSC.
TOGETHER WITH MODE MOBILE
Could this be the biggest disruption to Smartphones in the past 15 years? ๐ฒ
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๐ฅHeads up! There’s a new disruptor in smartphones: Mode Mobile. Mode can turn your phone from a cost into an income source โ and investors are watching the launch of the companyโs pre-IPO offering.1ย
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๐คณMode saw 32,481% revenue growth from 2019 to 2022, ranking them the #1 overall software company on Deloitteโs most recent fastest-growing companies list. Modeโs flagship product EarnPhone, a budget smartphone, has already helped consumers earn & save $325M+.
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๐ซด Modeโs Pre-IPO offering1 is live at $0.25/share โ 20,000+ shareholders already participated in its previous sold-out offering. Thereโs still time to get in on Modeโs pre-IPO raise and even lock in 100% bonus shares2โฆ but only until their current raise closes for good.
TOP STORY
US recognises Venezuelan โpresident-electโ four months after election
President Nicolรกs Maduro (L) and opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzรกlez Urrutia (R).
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The Trump administration may not take office until 20 January, but Secretary of State Antony Blinken channelled the former and future president when he changed US foreign policy by tweet on Tuesday. Blinken recognised exiled opposition candidate Edmundo Gonzรกlez Urrutia as Venezuela’s “president-electโ in an unexpected move that could lock in US policy for years to come.
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First, how did we get here?
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In July, Venezuela held presidential elections that observers from the Carter Center saidย โdid not meet international standards of electoral integrity and cannot be considered democratic.โ Nevertheless, President Nicolรกs Maduro claimed victory, despite:
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Refusing to release official tally results (he still hasnโt released them)
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Exit polls conducted on election day pointed to an opposition win
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Election tallies collected by the opposition from 83% of voting districts suggested a comfortable win for Gonzรกlez.
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But those are mere inconveniences when an incumbent with an excellent track record of stealing elections decides heโd like to stay in power a little longer. Maduroโs declaration of victory was followed by widespread protests in Venezuela, prompting a harsh but predictable crackdown from the government.
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Fearing retribution from the regime, government critics and members of the opposition fled Venezuela, including Gonzรกlez who is currently exiled in Spain. Exhortations from an increasingly long list of Western and Latin American governments to release the official results have had no effect on Nicolรกs Maduro, who’s accused everybody and their dog of plotting a coup against him.
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For keen Intriguers, this should ring a bell
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The US, UK, and EU refused to acknowledge Maduroโs election win in 2018, instead recognising Juan Guaidรณ as the rightful Venezuelan president. At one point, Guaidรณ was recognized as Venezuela’s “interim” president by ~60 countries while Maduro was only recognised by about 20.
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But Guaidรณ’s claim to the presidency never really went anywhere, and in 2021 the EU went back on its decision. One year later, the major opposition groups decided to dissolve the interim government.
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So, why is the Biden administration doing this again, and why now?
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The simple answer is we donโt know. Weโve got one idea, but itโs a guess so weโll save it for the Intrigueโs Take below.
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On one hand, Trump might be happy with this shift in policy โ his first administration adopted a ‘maximum pressure’ approach against Maduro, and his hand-picked Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio has built his foreign policy career around hardline criticism of leftist regimes in Latin America. There’s nothing to suggest Trump would go soft on Venezuela.
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But on the other, Maduro is unlikely to take this news well and could decide to make life difficult for the incoming US president. For a president elected on one of the most isolationist foreign policy platforms in the modern era, it will be interesting to see whether Trump prioritises punishing Maduro or pursuing his domestic priorities.
INTRIGUEโS TAKE
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Thereโs speculation among folks weโve talked to that Trump wanted to cut a deal with Maduro to achieve his immigration policy goals. Weโve written before that Donald Trump will need to work with Latin American countries if heโs to fulfil his promise to deport millions of undocumented immigrants and the only country in the region the US has major leverage over right now is Venezuela (okay, maybe Cuba as well).
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Again, itโs only speculation but itโs reasonable to think Maduro would at least consider a deal to accept a large number of deported immigrants from the US in exchange for a thawing of US-Venezuela relations.
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So back to the original question โ conventional wisdom would suggest that this policy shift makes it harder for Trump to work with Maduro, and the reason the Biden administration announced this now is to make sure years of isolation and pressure arenโt undone on 20 January.
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But we all know Trump has no time for conventional wisdom and if he wants to strike a deal with Maduro, a tweet from a lame-duck Secretary of State isnโt going to stop him.
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Also worth noting:ย
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When asked about the timing of the development, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller responded: โIt has nothing to do with us being at the end of the administrationโ, rather the Biden White House was waiting to see โif the international pressure […] would lead to a change in posture from his [Maduroโs] partโ.ย
-
Demand for the US dollar has spiked since the July elections, as citizens fear a complete devaluation of the bolivar that could lead to out-of-control inflation.ย
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHEREโฆ
-
๐น๐ฒย Turkmenistan: Authorities are cracking down on border crossings with Uzbekistan after many citizens travelled to the neighbouring country to buy food and basic goods unavailable in local stores. Ashgabat is reportedly โashamedโ that citizens have to travel outside the country to procure necessities due to the countryโs economic crisis.ย
-
๐ด๓ ง๓ ข๓ ณ๓ ฃ๓ ด๓ ฟย Scotland: US President-elect Donald Trump will visit Scotland in the summer of 2025 for the opening of the Trump International golf course in Aberdeenshire, according to his son. The golf course is a controversial topic in Scotland after the site lost special protected environment status due to building changes, a process Eric Trump lamented saying that doing business in the country was โvirtually impossible.โ
-
๐ฒ๐พย Malaysia: Malaysiaโs Transport Minister Anthony Lokeย is seeking Chinese support toย develop a high-speed rail networkย between Beijing and Southeast Asiaย to circumvent tensions in the South China Sea. Presently, rail networks connectย Malaysia and China via Laos and Thailand but are slow and cannot meet capacity demand, according to Loke.ย
-
๐ฌ๐พย Guyana: Georgetown hosted Indian Prime Minister Modi in Guyana for the India-Caricom summit, a 15-member Caribbean trade bloc, yesterday (Wednesday). Guyana has started fielding requests from prominent delegations after vast quantities of oil and gas were discovered off the countryโs coast, and operations commenced.ย
-
๐ฒ๐ฆย Morocco: Rabat approved a proposed 2025 budget that would allow defence companies to bypass taxes and increase the military budget to $13.32B next year. The move is seen as a way to boost production and incentivize foreign and domestic companies to invest in the country.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Diplomats on the move โ๏ธ
-
In the Middle East, Qatar’s Foreign Minister Al Thani travelled to Tehran to meet with his counterpart, Abbas Araghchi.
-
In Asia, the Prime Minister of Samoa Fiame Naomi Mataโafa is off to Beijing at the invitation of Chinaโs 2iC Premier Li Qiang.
-
In LATAM, Iran’s Defence Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh is attending the 10th Iran-Venezuela Joint Economic Committee meeting in Caracas.
-
In Europe,ย the British, Swedish, Finnish, Lithuanian, Estonian, and Dutch defence chiefs trekked to the German capital for the Berlin Security Conference.
TODAY IN HISTORY
Credits: Eric Miller/Reuters
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On this day in 1995, Dayton, Ohio became world famous for peace talks as it hosted a deal that reshaped the Balkans. Forcefully negotiated by US diplomat Richard “The Bulldozer” Holbrooke, the Dayton Accords ended the Bosnian War after nearly four years of bloodshed.
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Negotiated at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, the deal brought together Bosnia, Croatia, and Serbia’s leaders and created a complex power-sharing system, splitting Bosnia into two entities: the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Republika Srpska.
DAILY POLL
Which of the following cultural exports is the most powerful? |
Yesterdayโs poll: What skill do you think world leaders attending international summits should brush up on?
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๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฃ๏ธ Communication (12%)
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๐จ๐จโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ชข Negotiation (20%)
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๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉ๐ฉย ๐ค Problem solving (55%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฌ Languages (1%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ฅ Charisma (2%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ ๐ Observation (5%)
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โฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธโฌ๏ธ โ๏ธ Other (Write in!) (3%)
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Your two cents:
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๐ค R.L: โLeaders coming to the conference with disagreements but no desire to compromise and solve them are just wasting everyone’s time (or hoping to win political points).โ
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๐ฅย M.A: โDiplomats can deal with the specifics, but if heads of state are aligned and willing to tackle an issue it can be a game changer, and nothing like charisma to get other people on board or at least listening.โ
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๐ชขย C.D: โThe Art of the Deal… coming to a summit near you!โ
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๐ฌ C.C: โAfter all, we tend to treat each other better when we speak one another’s language.โ
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โ๏ธ J.S.G: โEmpathy and humanity.โ
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Was this forwarded to you? We’re a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 100k+ leaders each day. Itโs free to subscribe.
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1 Mode Mobile recently received their ticker reservation with Nasdaq ($MODE), indicating an intent to IPO in the next 24 months. An intent to IPO is no guarantee that an actual IPO will occur.
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2 A minimum investment of $1,950 is required to receive bonus shares. 100% bonus shares are offered on investments of $9,950+.
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3ย Please read the offering circular and related risks at invest.modemobile.com. This is a paid advertisement for Mode Mobileโs Regulation A+ Offering.
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Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Start-up investments are speculative and involve a high degree of risk. Those investors who cannot afford to lose their entire investment should not invest in start-ups. Companies seeking startup investment tend to be in earlier stages of development and their business model, products and services may not yet be fully developed, operational or tested in the public marketplace. There is no guarantee that the stated valuation and other terms are accurate or in agreement with the market or industry valuations. Further, investors may receive illiquid and/or restricted stock that may be subject to holding period requirements and/or liquidity concerns.
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DealMaker Securities LLC, a registered broker-dealer, and member of FINRA | SIPC, located at 105 Maxess Road, Suite 124, Melville, NY 11747, is the Intermediary for this offering and is not an affiliate of or connected with the Issuer. Please check our background on FINRA’s BrokerCheck.