Plus: The leaning tower of not-Pisa
Hi Intriguer. Most bus rides can be pretty dull, but there’s one from 2005 I’ll never forget. It was a ten hour journey from Caracas up to Mérida in the mountains of Venezuela, where I was backpacking at the time.
I remember the journey because my neighbour on that rickety old bus was a nurse who couldn’t help but share, over several hours, her hopes for where her country was headed.
Diving into today’s briefing (with an update on Venezuela’s controversial referendum this weekend), I can’t help but wonder where that nurse is today, and how she must feel about what’s become of her country.
– Jeremy Dicker, Managing Editor
Israel shifts sights to southern Gaza. Following the collapse of their fragile truce, Hamas has resumed firing rockets into Israel, which has stepped up its aerial bombardment and issued new orders for Palestinians to evacuate large parts of Gaza’s south. The UN warns “there is no safe place in Gaza”, while the US defence secretary said over the weekend that Israel risks “strategic defeat” if it doesn’t do more to protect civilians.
US ambassador turned Cuban spy? The FBI has arrested a former US ambassador to Bolivia on suspicion of secretly working as an agent for the Cuban government. Manuel Rocha (73) spent 25 years as a US diplomat and is best known for threatening to suspend US aid to Bolivia if the country elected socialist candidate Evo Morales as president.
Brazil to join OPEC+. Brazil says it’ll join the oil cartel early next year to deepen cooperation, but won’t commit to the group’s production quotas. The country exported an average of 1.8 million barrels of oil daily in the third quarter of this year, up 40% from a year earlier.
More ships attacked in the Red Sea. Three commercial vessels and a US warship were targeted by ballistic missiles in the Red Sea yesterday (Sunday), with the Iran-backed Houthis claiming responsibility for two of the attacks.
Hong Kong activist skips bail. Agnes Chow, one of the leading figures in Hong Kong’s 2019 democracy protests, has shared on social media that she’s skipping bail and instead remaining in Canada. Hong Kong is urging her not to “take the road of no return by remaining a fugitive for the rest of her life”.
TOP STORY
The territorial dispute between Venezuela (pop. 28 million) and Guyana (800,000 people).
Venezuela claims “overwhelming victory” in its referendum on territorial dispute with Guyana
Venezuelan authorities have announced (🇻🇪) overnight that >95% of votes cast in a referendum yesterday (Sunday) backed the government’s claims to the remote region of Essequibo, which has long been ruled by neighbouring Guyana.
At 160,000 sq-km, the disputed territory is bigger than North Korea, and makes up around two-thirds of what is now Guyana’s broadly-recognised territory.
The dispute around Essequibo has been around for centuries, involving various colonial powers like the UK, Spain, the Netherlands, and France. And tracing its history gets real tricky, real fast:
-
A Paris-based tribunal backed UK claims to Essequibo in an 1899 ruling
-
But Venezuela didn't directly join that process and, after six decades, objected to the ruling
-
So, the UK and Venezuela then went on to sign a 1966 deal, committing to establish a process (which has gone nowhere) to revisit the dispute.
And there’s the rub: Venezuela says this later pact voided the original ruling, while Guyana (which gained independence from the UK in 1966) insists the original ruling still holds.
Things heated up in 2015 when Exxon discovered vast oil and gas fields off Essequibo, meaning Guyana now sits on bigger estimated reserves than the UAE, and is now the world's fastest-growing economy (with 62% growth last year).
So Venezuela responded with yesterday’s referendum date, encouraging the Venezuelan people to answer ‘yes’ to these five questions:
-
Do you reject the border “fraudulently imposed” in 1899?
-
Do you support the 1966 pact as the only relevant text instead?
-
Do you agree the International Court of Justice (ICJ) has no role here?
-
Do you oppose Guyana's “illegal” sale of oil & gas licences off Essequibo?
-
Do you agree with granting Essequibo residents Venezuelan citizenship and incorporating the territory into Venezuela's map as a new state?
That little ICJ reference above comes after Guyana asked the world’s court to intervene in 2018. A ruling is still years off (and Venezuela hasn’t accepted its role), but on Friday the court ordered Venezuela not to alter the status quo.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
What comes next is still unclear. Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro faces elections in 2024, but after presiding over an economic collapse and the fleeing of 8 million citizens, his approval rating is plumbing new depths. So in that context, he’s probably using this issue to:
-
Warm up his party machine
-
Fire up the country's nationalist sentiment
-
Wedge the traditionally fractious opposition, and
-
Distract from the opposition's successful October primaries.
But really, Maduro has no good options here. The US has granted sanctions relief in return for free and fair elections next year, but polls (🇻🇪) suggest any fair elections will realistically see him booted from power.
So in that context, there's speculation Maduro could be laying the groundwork for a state of emergency over the border dispute, using that as a pretext to suspend the electoral process and cling to power. So… add Venezuela to the long list of elections well worth your attention next year.
Also worth noting:
-
Brazil (which borders both Venezuela and Guyana) announced last week it was intensifying "defensive actions" in the area. President Lula said (🇧🇷) yesterday he hopes "common sense" prevails.
-
Guyana’s president visited Essequibo last month to reassure the 125,000 locals, saying he's committed to resolving the dispute peacefully. In parallel, Guyana’s VP has said Venezuela's "aggressive acts" will "not go unpunished".
-
Exxon is laying low, saying “border issues are for governments and appropriate international organisations to address”.
SUPPORTED BY MILLENNIUM SPACE SYSTEMS, A BOEING COMPANY
Small Satellites, Big Missions
Millennium Space Systems, a Boeing Company, is a small satellite prime, delivering high-performance constellation solutions for National Security Space.
Founded in 2001, the company's active production lines and 80% vertical integration enable the rapid delivery of small satellites across missions and orbits – LEO, MEO and GEO.
🌱 COP28 CORNER
This year's COP chair, Sultan Al Jaber, has said there’s "no science" to support a phasing down of fossil fuels.
-
Nobody expected a petrostate to lead the charge for a phase-down, but his comment (which resurfaced from a 21 November virtual event) still caught everyone by surprise, just as the world was high-fiving him for last week’s 'loss and damage' fund.
More than 110 nations have pledged to triple global renewable energy capacity by 2030, though China and India aren't yet on board.
-
22 countries, including the US, Canada, Japan and Britain, have also pledged a tripling in their nuclear energy capacity by 2050.
Fifty oil companies (representing nearly 50% of global oil production) have also pledged to lower their methane emissions to near-zero.
-
Some 300 NGOs have called the move a "smokescreen", though the pledge (if honoured) could limit warming by one-tenth of a degree.
-
The UAE will notch this up as proof that a petrostate as COP host was key to extracting meaningful concessions from fellow oil producers.
Helen’s dispatch
The vibe on the ground here in Dubai remains pretty energetic, notwithstanding Al Jaber’s “no science” comment. Everyone here (both countries and companies) seems to accept that climate change is a pressing threat, so the focus is all on the practicalities of what we should do in response (and stat).
That said, it’s been interesting to watch the push here for a ‘fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty’, which looks more likely to divide opinion. And while many speakers have referred to COP as a "parade of promises", most seem to agree it’s the best we’ve got, and it’s exceeding expectations for now.
Cheers from Dubai!
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇰🇷 South Korea: Seoul’s first domestically-built spy satellite is now in orbit, just days after reclusive North Korea launched its own first spy satellite. This is the first of five reconnaissance satellites the South plans to put into space by 2025 (via Elon Musk’s SpaceX rockets).
-
🇫🇮 Finland: Helsinki’s minister of European affairs says he believes a Chinese ship intentionally damaged an undersea gas pipeline in October. The ship reportedly dragged its anchor along the seabed for around 180 kilometres, and the damaged pipeline is still offline.
-
🇮🇳 India: The ruling party of Prime Minister Modi has sailed to victory in three out of India’s four recent state elections, seizing two from the opposition. There were various local factors at play, but the result will put a spring in Modi’s step ahead of 2024’s general elections.
-
🇸🇻 El Salvador: The private secretary to President Nayib Bukele will run El Salvador in his stead while the president campaigns for re-election in February’s elections. Some lawyers say Bukele’s re-election would violate the constitution, but a top court ruled in his favour last month (and polls suggest he’s likely to win).
-
🇧🇫 Burkina Faso: Niger and Burkina Faso have withdrawn from the G5 Sahel, an international anti-terrorism force backed by France. The announcement comes after the military governments of Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso signed a mutual defence agreement in September.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Your weekly roundup of the world’s more surprising news
-
A Paraguay official has resigned after signing an agreement with a non-existent country headed by a fugitive Indian guru.
-
Sales for a Samurai defensive stick have soared in Japan after a jewellery store clerk used one to fend off three would-be thieves.
-
A Chinese celebrity chef has issued a “solemn apology” for posting an egg-fried rice recipe close to the anniversary of the death of Mao Zedong’s eldest son; rumour has it that Mao’s son was killed by a US airstrike while cooking the rice dish (i.e., the smoke reportedly revealed his location).
-
Japanese officials have expressed exasperation after Russian diplomats accumulated 2,300 unpaid parking tickets in Japan in five years.
-
And in Latvia, organisers have cancelled a tech conference after one of the founders admitted to inventing at least one fake AI woman, allegedly to bolster the event’s speaker line-up.
📸 PHOTO OF THE DAY
The Garisenda (L) and Asinelli (R) towers in Bologna.
Italy has more than one famous leaning tower. Officials in the city of Bologna have announced they’ll be closely monitoring the 12th Century Garisenda tower, which leans at a worrying 4° angle, for fears it might collapse.
And if you’re wondering why we’d write about this obscure ol’ tower, all we can say in our defence is that Dante and Dickens did it first.
DAILY POLL
Where do you think this Venezuela-Guyana dispute is headed? |
Yesterday’s poll: If mining companies found a huge copper reserve close to your home, what would you do?
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 💸 Stay and enjoy the extra cash it might bring to town (18%)
🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 📢 Stay and oppose the development's unacceptable impacts (16%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 ⚖️ Stay and ensure the pros outweigh the cons (37%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🤙 Chill (5%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🚗 Move away (21%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
-
✍️ E.C: “Negotiated move: work together with neighbours and local government to ensure reduced environmental impact for those who stay, including specific requirements for schools and local healthcare institutions; and relocation packages for people to move.”
-
⚖️ B: “Natural resources are always needed, be it trees, water or minerals. It is the height of hypocrisy to say you can’t do it near your residence but it is ok to do in China or Indonesia.”
-
🚗 D.D: “Mining never benefits the local economy/environment more than it damages it.”