🌍 Venezuelan opposition leader expelled from Colombia

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🗺️ AROUND THE WORLD

1. 🇰🇷 South Korea: In a landmark deal, the US and South Korea have agreed a bigger role for Seoul in shaping nuclear strategy on the Korean Peninsula. In exchange, South Korea has undertaken not to pursue its own nuclear program.

2. 🇺🇦 Ukraine: Chinese President Xi Jinping and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke over the phone yesterday (Wednesday). Zelensky appointed a new ambassador to Beijing after the call, which he described as “long and meaningful”.

3. 🇦🇺 Australia: Canberra announced yesterday (Wednesday) it’ll accelerate its missile production program. The announcement is part of a broader review of Australia’s defence strategy, which it said was launched in response to China’s military build-up in the region.

4. 🇲🇽 Mexico: The government’s migration chief was arraigned on Tuesday in connection with a deadly fire at a border detention centre last month. Authorities say he knowingly declined to improve conditions at the facility.

5. 🇱🇧 Lebanon: An alleged financier for designated Lebanese terrorist group Hezbollah has appeared in a US court after being extradited by Romania. He’ll face sanctions evasion and money laundering charges.

🇻🇪 VENEZUELA | POLITICS

Venezuelan opposition figure lands in the US

Briefly: Venezuelan opposition figure Juan Guaidó landed unexpectedly in the US on Tuesday after an action-packed 48 hours. It’s now unclear if or when he’ll ever return to Venezuela.

Here’s what happened: 

• On Monday, Guaidó crossed unlawfully into Colombia on foot, after what he said was a 60 hour journey from Venezuela’s capital.

• He then tried to take a flight from a border town to Colombia’s capital, for a summit on Venezuela’s future (to which he wasn’t invited).

• But when Colombia hinted at his possible deportation, the US got him a ticket to Miami instead and local authorities escorted him to the gate.

Just four years ago, Guaidó was greeted as a hero in the very same border town. Three Latin American presidents received him there, and he even featured at a Live Aid concert organised by Richard Branson.

But despite being recognised as Venezuela’s leader by 50 countries at the time, Guaidó struggled to actually oust incumbent Nicolás Maduro from power. And so Guaidó’s influence waned, and his parallel government was disbanded.

Intrigue’s take: Two quick lessons here. First, while Maduro’s 2018 re-election was widely seen as a sham, he still managed to hold tight to key levers of power like the security forces. And in Venezuela, that’s still ultimately what matters.

But second, many of Guaidó’s top backers abroad were subsequently swept from power in Latin America’s ‘pink tide’. So his influence was fading at home and abroad. After this week, it’s hard to see him regaining that influence anywhere.

Also worth noting:

• The US, EU and Latin American countries are trying to negotiate a democratic resolution to Venezuela’s crisis, potentially involving the relaxation of sanctions in return for credible 2024 elections.

• In 2019, the US imposed strict financial sanctions on Venezuela and pledged $52 million in support for Juan Guaidó’s efforts to oust Nicolás Maduro.

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Today’s briefing is sponsored by Hubspot

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🇿🇦 SOUTH AFRICA | GEOPOLITICS

Will South Africa arrest Vladimir Putin?

Briefly: South Africa’s presidential office has walked back comments by President Ramaphosa, who said the country should leave the International Criminal Court (ICC) after it issued an arrest warrant for Vladimir Putin.

The president’s office said his comments on Tuesday were “erroneous”. But South Africa will have to sort its plans out soon. In August, it’s due to host Russia’s president for a BRICS summit, but South Africa’s ICC membership obliges it to detain Putin and hand him over to The Hague for trial.

Intrigue’s take: This all underscores two big things:

1. Countries may try to chart a middle course between the West and Russia, but South Africa’s current predicament is a reminder of how often this world can still force us all to make a choice eventually, and

2. One way or another, it’s unlikely Putin will be nabbed in South Africa. But that won’t mean the ICC has failed. To the contrary, the current uncertainty in Pretoria (and Moscow) is proof the ICC warrant is shaping international behaviour.

Also worth noting:

• South Africa first considered leaving the ICC in 2015, when the government declined to arrest then Sudanese dictator Omar al-Bashir while hosting an African Union summit.

• Even if South Africa decides to leave the ICC, it’ll still be treaty-bound to fulfil its ICC obligations (like arresting Putin) for 12 months.

👀 EXTRA INTRIGUE

What we’re reading about all things Apple.

• Will Apple take a big bite out of the banks?

• Why Apple is betting big on India ($)

• Apple is making it easy to borrow money. What could go wrong?

• Apple might make MacBooks in Thailand ($)

📊 INFOGRAPHIC OF THE DAY

In light of recent reports about a new deployment of US nuclear-armed subs to South Korea, here’s a look at the 29 other countries currently under the US ‘nuclear umbrella’ (the term for a security guarantee by a nuclear weapons state). Update: Finland joined NATO (and the US nuclear umbrella) on 4 April 2023.

🗳️ POLLTIME!

Yesterday’s poll: Do you think China’s carbon emissions will peak before 2030, as pledged by Xi?

🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 👍 Yes, China has the will and the way to make it happen (24%)

🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 👎 No, that’s unrealistic (73%)

⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🖋️ Other (write in!) (3%)

Your two cents:

• 👍 G.L: “Given China’s huge investment in all aspects of clean energy tech (solar, batteries, hydro, etc), it seems probable that the coal boom is a temporary fix to the current energy shortage.”

• 👎 S.C: “China has similar issues as the US and others: Building out their transmission grid to accommodate the massive increase in renewable generation assets across the country. This is a very expensive and long process and makes the targeted 2030 date unrealistic.”

• 🖋️ O.S: “[…] the target itself is way too unambitious to achieve the Paris Goal – China needs to cut emissions much sooner.”