Plus: Palace of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ Venezuela – where to from here? |
2️⃣ Wagner admits heavy losses in Mali |
3️⃣ Palace of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I once got to meet the oldest man in Chiapas, one of Mexico’s states bordering Guatemala. He spoke a local indigenous language, so one of his grandsons translated our conversation.
After hearing about his fascinating 109 years of life, I couldn’t help myself, and had to ask for his secret to longevity. His response? He legit flashed me a toothless grin and gave me an answer that needed no translation: “Coca-Cola”.
I promise I’m not giving nutrition advice. Rather, I was reminded of that elderly fellow as I saw footage of an older Venezuelan woman needing significant assistance to vote over the weekend – she was just one of countless other ordinary folks going to extraordinary lengths to have their voices heard.
But incumbent autocrat Nicolás Maduro vowed he would win “by hook or by crook” and, as today’s briefing explores, he seems to have opted for “crook”.
PS – This is our final briefing for the week, as we’ll be on a team retreat! But fear not, dear Intriguer, we’ll be back in your inbox from Wed August 7th.
Biden outlines Supreme Court reform.
US President Joe Biden has unveiled his proposal to reform the country’s Supreme Court, including via new term limits, a strict ethics code, and removing immunity for former presidents. His proposals have little chance of passing a divided Congress.
German GDP stumbles.
The German economy contracted by 0.1% from April to June, surprising analysts who were expecting a small if positive result. Germany’s GDP grew by 0.2% in the first quarter of the year, following a sharp decline at the end of 2023. France, Spain, and Italy all rang in Q2 with continued (if still lukewarm) growth.
Landslides in India kill 70.
The mudslides, precipitated by heavy rainfall, hit villages in southern India. Rescuers, hampered by bad weather, expect the death toll to increase.
Olympic event in the Seine halted.
Organisers have postponed the men’s individual triathlon after it was revealed the river Seine’s water quality wasn’t up to standard. Paris has spent millions cleaning up the waterway, but recent rainfall has flushed it with street run-off.
TOP STORY
Venezuela’s Maduro digs in as protests erupt and international condemnations roll in
As the sun rises over Caracas this morning (Tuesday), two very different people are still claiming victory in Venezuela’s presidential elections on Sunday: long-time autocrat Nicolás Maduro, and the main opposition candidate and former career diplomat, Edmundo González Urrutia.
Why?
After 11 years of Maduro presiding over an 80% collapse in GDP, the mass exodus of 8 million citizens, and the erasing or co-opting of independent institutions, Venezuela’s famously divided opposition finally managed to unite, even as Maduro kept disqualifying its candidates one by one.
And all the signs suggested the mild-mannered González (74) could pull it off: credible surveys, exit polls, and quick counts all pointed to his crushing victory.
So what happened?
As the hours inched on beyond 8pm Sunday (when results are typically announced), theories began to spread, until the electoral chief, a Maduro loyalist, emerged on state TV at around 1am Monday and claimed that:
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Maduro had secured 51% of the vote, clinching a third six-year term, and
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González had supposedly fallen short with just over 44% of the vote.
But beyond all the exit polls, there were other immediate reasons for doubt:
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The electoral authority’s website was down most of Monday, and
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Authorities still haven’t released the full vote breakdown, which is mandatory and digitally randomised to prevent falsification (Maduro is blaming a hack by the opposition or foreign powers).
So now what?
The opposition is not only dismissing Maduro’s claimed win, but it’s even brandishing receipts: certified copies of 73% of the country’s 30,000 voting station results (seen in person by a source we trust), adding up to an irreversible González victory.
And the opposition has some remarkable backing, too:
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At home, protests have erupted in cities across Venezuela, pouring out of vast impoverished settlements that Maduro claims as his base, while
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Abroad, the UN, the US, and the EU – plus influential left-leaning players from Brazil, Colombia, and Mexico – have called for transparency, while Chile’s president has flat out said the results are “hard to believe”.
So as protestors approached Maduro’s palace Monday evening, the man himself appeared on state TV and delivered a 69-minute address, variously describing those out in the streets as “criminals”, “terrorists”, “fascists”, “drug-addicts”, and “a violent 10%” serving “ultra-right” forces (plus “the gringos”).
And yet at both home and abroad, Maduro wasn’t alone either:
Then, after deriding the protestors as “counter revolutionaries” and vowing ominously that “justice will be done”, he wrapped it up with “good night, Venezuela”, while his police and paramilitaries clashed with folks outside.
As for next steps? The opposition is calling on families to gather in nationwide “popular assemblies” this morning, reiterating their demand for Maduro to go.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
Some of the most remarkable images have shown crowds pulling down at least three statues of Hugo Chavez, the leftist ex-general and Maduro’s mentor, who ran the country for 14 years before dying of cancer in 2013.
Of course, images like that give serious end-of-Saddam-Hussein vibes, but there are a few reasons why things might not work out that way:
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First, Maduro himself is a famously superstitious and stubborn leader, with little inclination to bend, and a lot to lose if he does (given DC’s $15M bounty for his capture on trafficking and other charges)
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Second, his own loyal (and US-sanctioned) defence minister also has a lot to lose, so has spent the last decade ensuring loyalty among the armed forces while installing key allies into crucial positions, and
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Third, whatever isolation the international community can impose, it’s now increasingly being diluted by the queue of foreign autocrats only too willing to endorse Maduro’s win in this new multipolar world.
And that last point begs the question: what’s in it for Russia, China, Cuba, Iran, and the others? They probably have three audiences in mind:
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With a nod to the US, it’s a way to nourish instability in its region, highlight the limits of US influence, and add to the distraction it’s already facing in Europe, the Middle East, and back home
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To those regimes’ own citizens (who are getting a carefully filtered version of reality via state media), it all feeds their claim that history is bending towards alternatives to a US-led model, and
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To the dozens of fence-sitting leaders around the world, it’s a signal that while they might be on the receiving end of some angry tweets or sanctions, they too can ride out Western pressure and join the club
So that’s a lot riding on the shoulders of some brave and angry Venezuelan citizens, who are now figuring out what card to play next.
Also worth noting:
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Maduro has cut ties with various countries that have questioned his win.
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He ‘won’ the last election in 2017 after the beleaguered opposition boycotted the process.
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Some opposition figures are now taking refuge in the embassy of Argentina (Maduro has described Argentina’s president as a “Nazi”).
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇼 Taiwan: Lawmakers from six legislatures (Bolivia, Bosnia, Colombia, North Macedonia, Slovakia, and one unnamed Asian nation) have said they’re being pressured by China not to attend an upcoming summit in Taiwan. The lawmakers say the pressure includes calls, texts and requests for meetings that would interfere with their travel plans.
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🇫🇷 France: An internet provider has alleged a "major sabotage" operation has targeted a series of long-distance fibre optic cables in France. It’s the second act of sabotage targeting key French infrastructure during the Paris Olympics, and the perpetrators remain at large.
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🇮🇳 India: The foreign ministers of India, Japan, the US and Australia, part of a security grouping known as the Quad, have met in Tokyo to discuss cybersecurity and tensions in the South China Sea. The meeting comes days after a separate US-Japan summit labelled China the region’s “greatest strategic challenge”.
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🇵🇪 Peru: President Dina Boluarte has announced she’ll call elections scheduled for 2026 before next April. Boluarte, who’s under investigation for bribery and protester deaths, took office in late 2022 after her predecessor sought to dissolve Congress unconstitutionally.
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🇲🇱 Mali: Russia’s Wagner Group has confirmed it’s suffered significant losses on the battlefield in Mali, where its mercenaries are helping the Malian army fight an insurgency. Ukraine’s military intelligence agency claims it provided sensitive information on the position of the Russian forces, aiding in their ambush.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
We’ll now be off for a team retreat, returning to your inbox from Wed August 7th! In the meantime, here are some of the things we’ll be reading:
PALACE OF THE DAY
Garuda Palace was still undergoing construction work as of 11 July. Credits: AFP/Yasuyoshi Chiba.
Nobody sleeps well on the first night in their new home, and that holds true even when your new abode is shaped sorta like a gigantic metal eagle. Indonesian President Joko Widodo has admitted he didn’t get the best night’s sleep on Monday when he spent his first evening in the newly built Garuda Palace.
The palace, located in the planned new Indonesian capital of Nusantara, consists of 4,650 blades that make up the eagle's wings.
Unfortunately, the President won’t have much time to get comfortable: in October he’ll hand the keys to his defence minister and successor, Prabowo Subianto.
DAILY POLL
What do you think the international community's role is in a situation like Venezuela's? |
Yesterday’s poll: What do you think is the foreign service's most important job these days?
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🕊️ Mediating between warring parties (12%)
🟨🟨🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🗒️ Collecting information for home base (20%)
🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩🟩 🖋️ Negotiating economic and political agreements (41%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🎭 Promoting a country's culture and soft power (11%)
🟨⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ 🏁 Serving its citizens living abroad (13%)
⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️⬜️ ✍️ Other (write in!) (2%)
Your two cents:
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✍️ SzKB: “Without trying to circumvent answering (which could be considered very diplomatic): it totally depends on the countries involved.”
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🕊️ R.B: “Their most important job is mediating between warring parties, but in all reality negotiating agreements and collecting information have historically been their predominate jobs.”
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🎭 C.D: “We conducted a training exercise with Morocco in the 90s. At a dinner with the US ambassador and numerous Moroccan dignitaries, I asked my Moroccan counterpart this exact question. He (and the rest at the table) were well pleased, and ‘promoting culture’ was the number one reason; negotiating economic deals was a close second. It was an illuminating dinner…”
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✍️ C.B: “Building relational equity. Trust is a scarce resource, and you can't have any of the things above without it.”
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