Plus: Macron's boxing photoshoot
Hi Intriguer. G’day and happy Friday, dear Intriguer!
I’m writing in from sunny Sydney, where we’ve just hosted our first ever in-person event with the support of Blackbird VC. Australian senator and former ambassador Dave Sharma was our VIP for the event – he took us through his thoughts on the biggest threats facing our world, his tech and AI optimism, and the need for governments to invest more in diplomacy.
It was a great session – we’ll share more highlights soon. Thank you to folks in Sydney who came out for the event, and we look forward to putting on more of these in the future (with free merch guaranteed)!
– Helen Zhang, Co-Founder
Was this forwarded to you? We're a team of ex-diplomats producing a concise and engaging geopolitical briefing for 85k+ leaders each day. It’s free to subscribe.
US opens antitrust challenge against Apple. The Justice Department has accused tech giant Apple of monopolising the smartphone market through its App Store. The lawsuit alleges that the company thwarts apps seen as a threat, while restricting access to its hardware and software. Apple has dismissed the accusations and vowed to fight the lawsuit.
Senior Indian opposition figure arrested. Arvind Kejriwal, Chief Minister of Delhi and a key figure in India’s opposition, has been arrested, according to his party. The news comes after authorities questioned him yesterday (Thursday) in connection with a money laundering case. Critics say his detainment is a politically motivated crackdown ahead of next month’s general election.
Russia targets key infrastructure across Ukraine. Russian airstrikes have damaged Ukraine’s biggest hydroelectric plant and other key energy infrastructure overnight. Ukraine’s energy minister called it “the largest attack on the Ukrainian energy sector in recent times”.
EU opens accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina. EU leaders have greenlit the start of accession talks with Bosnia and Herzegovina during the EU Council summit, which kicked off yesterday. The move comes eight years after the country formally applied to become part of the bloc.
TOP STORY
Vietnam’s president falls foul of a Blazing Furnace
Vietnam’s leaders are hoping their anti-corruption purges will strengthen the country.
Vietnam’s National Assembly formally approved the resignation of President Vo Van Thuong yesterday (Thursday), making him the second Vietnamese head of state to step down in just over a year.
Thuong’s departure appears linked to an extensive anti-corruption campaign (terrifically codenamed ‘Blazing Furnace’) that has already resulted in the arrest of hundreds of officials as well as the resignation of several high-ranking officers.
The Vietnamese Communist Party, which has run the country since ‘the fall of Saigon’ in 1975, accepted Thuong’s resignation and issued a statement (🇻🇳) saying the politician had “violated regulations on what party members cannot do” and negatively impacted the reputation of his state and party.
Though the power of the Vietnamese president has varied over the years, Thuong was regarded as the second most influential leader within the Communist Party’s hierarchy and heir apparent to the country’s real top job – General Secretary.
But really, why did Thuong resign?
There’s a lot of intrigue surrounding Thuong’s departure:
-
Party officials vaguely pointed to a series of “shortcomings” but declined to offer more details about the nature of his failures.
-
Then there’s the ongoing police investigation into bribery allegations from over a decade ago when Thuong was the party secretary in Quang Ngai province.
-
There are also reports that the man in charge of leading Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign – Minister of Public Security To Lam – opposed Thuong for president in 2023 but lost. To paraphrase a famous Belgian detective, motives for (political) murder are sometimes very trivial.
Whatever the reason, Thuong’s resignation has supercharged speculation about a leadership struggle behind the scenes – particularly since current General Secretary Nguyen Phu Trong (a major backer of Thuong) was hospitalised in January.
And guess who’s now shaping up as an early favourite to succeed General Secretary Trong at the Party Congress in 2026? To Lam.
What does this mean for Vietnam?
Analysts are worried about the country’s political stability. Beyond this week’s events, Vietnam’s ongoing multi-year corruption crackdown has hurt business and investor confidence.
As Vietnam expert Le Hong Hiep explains: “Many of these investors were drawn to Vietnam precisely because of its relatively stable political climate compared to other countries in the region”.
That matters because Vietnam’s leadership has pledged to grow its economy and turn it into a developed country by 2045. It’s been one of the region’s fastest growing economies in recent years, but the party missed last year’s growth target.
On the other hand, FDI flows have proven remarkably resilient throughout the corruption crackdown and have climbed nearly 40% in the first two months of 2024 compared to a year earlier.
For now, Vice-President Vo Thi Anh Xuan has been appointed Acting President, but it could take a month before a new president is announced.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
On its face, Vietnam’s anti-corruption campaign looks similar to the one its northern neighbour China began in 2012. Both communist parties rightly view public corruption as a serious threat to their credibility and the long-term stability of their countries.
And just like Xi Jinping deftly used his anti-corruption campaign to both clean up China and kneecap his political rivals in China, it at least appears that Public Security Minister To Lam is trying the same thing in Vietnam.
Of course, Thuong’s resignation could be just a blip on the radar. But because Vietnamese politics are so opaque and tightly choreographed, any deviation from the norm leaves the rest of us wondering whether it’s a harbinger of more serious trouble.
Also worth noting:
-
Since the beginning of Vietnam’s ‘Blazing Furnace’ anti-corruption drive in 2016, a remarkable 200,000 party members across all levels have been fired, jailed or disciplined.
SHOP THE INTRIGUE STORE!
T-shirts and hats, phone cases and mugs – oh my!
Many of you have asked us, time and time again, “how can I get my hands on one of those sweet sweet Intrigue t-shirts?”
Good news! We’ve just launched our first-ever merch storefront. We’ve created a few choice pieces to get you started and we’ll add more as inspiration strikes. (If you’ve got a great idea for a bit of merch, let us know!)
Enjoy shopping, and thanks for supporting us!
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
-
🇮🇳 India: India’s leading think tank (ORF) is helping the Modi government develop its own ‘democracy ratings index’ ahead of the nationwide elections that begin next month. Modi is worried a decade-long slide down the EIU Democracy Index has hurt India’s credit rating, and he’s betting his own rating system could help solve the problem.
-
🇵🇹 Portugal: The president has asked Luís Montenegro, the leader of the Democratic Alliance, to form a minority government after his party won the parliamentary election earlier this month. This will be Portugal’s first centre-right government after eight years of Socialist Party rule.
-
🇦🇺 Australia: Fiji has decided to work with Australia to develop its port and shipbuilding infrastructure – not China, as the Fijian PM had previously suggested. Naval spending is clearly on Canberra’s mind as the government also said it will spend big to expand shipbuilding capabilities in the UK and the US as part of the AUKUS security pact.
-
🇦🇷 Argentina: President Javier Milei has launched major reforms to slash costs and drive efficiencies inside Argentina’s ~40 state-owned companies across rail, airlines, energy, and beyond. Milei wants to privatise the state-owned sector but has faced stiff resistance from unions and Congress, where he holds fewer than 15% of the seats.
-
🇾🇪 Yemen: Russia and China have reached an understanding with Yemen’s Houthis to ensure safe passage for their own ships after talks in Oman, according to a Bloomberg report. In return, the two countries could extend more political support for the group in international arenas such as the UN.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Some recommendations from Team Intrigue if you’re spending the weekend in 🇻🇳 Hanoi
-
Visit: Walk around Hanoi’s Old Quarter to travel back in time to when the area was divided amongst some 36 artisan guilds. While you’re there, pop into the elegantly restored ‘Heritage House’.
-
Eat: Drop by ‘Maison de Tet decor’ to taste Vietnam’s famous coffee culture. Our suggestions? Go for the egg or coconut coffee.
-
Shop: Hanoi is famous for its silk, and Hang Gai Street (located in the Old Quarter) is a must-visit location for fashion lovers.
PHOTO OF THE DAY
Credit: Soazig De La Moissonniere/ The President
🤩 We hope everyone’s bought billets because the French president is putting on a gun show. Emmanuel Macron released some new pictures of him and his fighting spirit earlier this week.
Macron isn’t the first leader to use sports photoshoots to portray an image of strength: we’ve all seen the bare-chested snaps of Putin on horseback, but check out these candids of Fidel Castro ballin’ out in the ’60s.
FRIDAY QUIZ
Test your geography knowledge and impress (or annoy?) your friends with some random facts!
What country is known as 'Land of a Thousand Lakes'? |
In which country would you (mostly) find the Kalahari Desert? |
In which country would you find the world's largest salt flat, Salar de Uyuni? |