Plus: Meme of the day
IN TODAY’S EDITION
1️⃣ What our leaders fear |
2️⃣ Intrigue’s weekend tips |
3️⃣ Meme of the day |
Hi Intriguer. I love the old adage of history not repeating itself but often rhyming (one of many quips attributed to Mark Twain). 2025 looks like one of those ‘rhyming’ years, especially with the return of geopolitical instability.
The World Economic Forum’s just released its 2025 Global Risks Report. One of the issues on that list of risks this year is ‘geopolitical recession’, and the return of state-based armed conflict. That means outright hot wars, proxy wars, civil wars, coups, terrorism etc.
Good thing you all are already reading the best geopolitical publication to help you navigate these choppy waters ahead. Anyway, onto today’s top story which breaks down the WEF report.
P.S. Intrigue will be in Davos for the WEF next week, so please do get in touch if you’re also there!
PS – Don’t miss the inside scoop on US-China competition in our candid chat with Congressman Raja Krishnamoorthi, Ranking Member of the House Select Committee on Strategic Competition between the US and the Chinese Communist Party. It’s online, 10am ET on Tuesday — register here!
Israel to approve Hamas deal.
The Israeli security cabinet is set to give its final approval for the ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas today (Friday), ahead of its entry into force on Sunday.
China reports 5% growth for 2024.
Official figures suggest the Chinese economy met its growth target last year, as export growth and government stimulus offset lukewarm domestic demand.
Mark Carney running to replace Trudeau.
After months of speculation, former Bank of Canada and Bank of England governor Mark Carney has announced he’ll run for leader of the ruling Liberal Party, replacing Justin Trudeau who announced earlier this month that he’s stepping down. Canada is scheduled to hold elections no later than October.
Glencore and Rio Tinto discuss merger.
The two mining giants have reportedly held talks about a possible merger, though it’s unclear if the discussion is still ongoing. If such a deal were to go ahead, it would rank as the biggest-ever mining merger given Glencore’s $55B valuation and Rio Tinto’s $103B.
Trump mulls action to delay TikTok ban.
The incoming president is reportedly considering an executive order to delay the enforcement of current legislation ordering the social media app to divest from China or face a US-wide ban — there are no known plans to sell TikTok before the legislation’s deadline (this Sunday).
TOP STORY
What our leaders fear most
Credits: WEF Global Risks Report 2025.
The World Economic Forum (WEF) crams epic wealth and power into the tiny Swiss ski resort of Davos each January, leaving it open to some truly cracking conspiracy theories — personally as Simpsons fans, we love to imagine Davos rigging every Oscars night.
But we’ve been to Davos before (and will be back again from Monday), so can confirm that yes, while the suits are expensive, the substance typically isn’t so spicy.
Anyway, like every other international body, WEF dutifully produces dense reports, like its latest WEF 2025 Global Risks Report. This particular 100-page beauty smells of rich mahogany and is based on a survey of 900 leaders across academia, business, government, diplomacy, and civil society — and that’s interesting to us because knowing how our leaders see things can help us understand and anticipate their next move.
So… here are our top five quotes from this year’s WEF Global Risks Report:
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“Perceptions of the overall economic outlook for 2025 remain fairly pessimistic across all age groups surveyed”
In this polarised day and age, it’s nice to finally agree on something, right? Except this: 2025 looks bumpy, with economic issues still taking four of the top ten risks for 2025.
Interestingly, inflation has now disappeared from the top ten (it’s now #29), but geoeconomic confrontation has shot up to #3, right after armed conflict and extreme weather events.
Meanwhile, respondents also cite risks of an economic downturn and a lack of economic opportunity this year, but there’s some good news, too:
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Over a longer time horizon (two and 10 years), leaders see these risks subsiding, with only debt and asset bubble risks lingering, and maybe more importantly…
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Projections are often wrong! Remember 2022? That’s when various models were citing a 100% probability of a US recession within 12 months.
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“A loss of support for and faith in the role of international organizations in conflict prevention and resolution has opened the door to more unilateralist moves”
As global challenges grow in number and complexity, folks are losing their faith in the ability of institutions to deliver answers.
That’s partly why so many capitals are now charting their own course instead, often with cheers from their voters. And sure, some of the world’s most popular leaders are now the ones most laser-focused on the basics back home.
But to the extent this shift weakens cooperation abroad, it’s the type of thing we’ll miss once it’s gone — treaties are what helped us shrink the ozone hole, de-risk international aviation, and reduce the chance of smaller countries getting screwed by their neighbours.
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“Deeper decoupling of trade between West and East would have worldwide repercussions”
While the US and China are pulling up their drawbridge in specific sectors (AI, chips, critical minerals etc), there’s debate around the extent to which a broader decoupling is even playing out yet: China hit a record trillion-dollar trade surplus last year, and the US trade deficit is now rising again after peaking in 2022. So while US-China trade specifically has eased, the same basic global imbalance persists (just with a few more intermediaries).
But the basic point here holds true: whatever the aggregate figures say, businesses are feeling the risk of rugs getting pulled — tariffs, export controls, state subsidies, and investment screening can now hit suddenly, with tangible, billion-dollar implications.
That raises the cost of doing business, and makes investors think twice.
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“Pension crises will start to bite over the next decade in super-ageing societies”
The term “super-ageing societies” is interesting — that’s when over 20% of the population is over 65 years of age. Countries like Japan, Germany, France, and Portugal are already there, with more to follow — global over-65s are projected to grow 36% by 2035.
And as that proportion of pension-aged people increases, governments face bigger spending and labour shortages, plus tighter tax revenues and health resources.
Sure, there are solutions, but none are easy: you could delay the retirement age and risk riots (ask France); try to get citizens to have more children and risk ridicule (ask South Korea); or raise migration and risk a housing crisis (ask Canada and others).
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“Environmental risks have consistently topped the 10-year ranking”
While immediate risks tend to fluctuate, environmental risks have long topped the long-term risk list (say that ten times fast. Or not. We’re not going to tell you what to do).
That’s interesting given climate concerns have quietly dropped down the government to-do lists lately. It probably points to some kind of mismatch, whether between the urgent and the important, or between the sentiment at Davos and everywhere else.
Anyway, the general vibe of this year’s WEF Risks Report is gloomy, pointing to a world that’s less secure, less stable, and less prosperous.
INTRIGUE’S TAKE
But yes, dear Intriguer, we’re going to leave you with some positive vibes: first, just remember that gloomy vibes are the entire point of a risk report. If we spent an entire year on a report, and came back with a single page noting that, you know what? It all looks pretty good out there, boss. Nothing to worry about… Yep, we’d be out of a job.
But second, it’s also partly the point of Intrigue: when still working on the inside, we often noticed that the public debate was catastrophising some issues more than what the facts justified. Sometimes that’s because media outlets use fear and outrage to drive clicks and revenue. We prefer memes instead (see below).
Also worth noting:
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Lest you think we’re being dismissive about any of the risks above, take a trip with us back to 2006, and you’ll see the WEF Risks Report that year cited the possibility of oil shocks, climate change, terrorism, and a pandemic.
MEANWHILE, ELSEWHERE…
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🇹🇯 Tajikistan: Tajikistan hosted Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian yesterday, ahead of his visit to Moscow today (Friday). While Iran and Tajikistan share a common language, they’ve been at odds since the 1990s Tajik civil war, when Dushanbe accused Tehran of backing Islamist factions banned in Tajikistan.
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🇪🇺 EU: Brussels has given the green light for former top EU official Thierry Breton to join Bank of America’s global advisory council, overriding the usual two-year waiting period. Breton got into a high-profile spat with Elon Musk last year, accusing his X platform of potentially violating the EU’s Digital Services Act.
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🇻🇺 Vanuatu: The Pacific Island nation held elections yesterday, just one month after a powerful earthquake left significant damage to buildings and infrastructure. Vanuatu, often dubbed the world’s happiest nation, has changed its prime minister an average of once per year over the past two decades.
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🇧🇷 Brazil: A top court has denied former leader Jair Bolsonaro’s request to restore his passport so he can attend Donald Trump’s inauguration on Monday. The judge (with plenty of Bolsonaro history) said Bolsonaro didn’t show enough proof of a formal invitation, nor did he hold a formal role to represent Brazil in DC.
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🇹🇳 Tunisia: With Tunisia’s foreign minister visiting Rome yesterday, Italy announced it’s investing another $410M in the Tunisian energy sector. It’s part of an ongoing effort to curb irregular migration from North Africa to Europe.
EXTRA INTRIGUE
Intrigue’s weekend recommendations
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Listen to Bad Bunny’s new salsa-themed album Debí Tirar Más Fotos (I should’ve taken more photos when I had you), which is now topping the US charts as a love letter to his native Puerto Rico.
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Watch Severance (season 2), the tale of a team working on something so secret, they have to get their memory wiped each time they leave the office.
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Read about the UAE’s intelligence chief, who oversees a $1.5T fortune and wants to use it to dominate the AI field.
MEME OF THE DAY
All our meme-lord’s work is available on Insta (@dickerpicss)
Wanna be a diplomat? Go for it. But then you’ve gotta answer a very tough question… which diplomat? As our meme lord Jeremy explores above — with a little help from the theatrical back-catalogue of Daniel Craig — there are lots of embassy roles to fill.
For one of them (intelligence), we can neither confirm nor deny if it even exists (it does). Another (aid) needs no introduction, because the aid types will absolutely slip their world-changing work into conversation at the first chance (Umm, ma’am? This is a Wendy’s).
Meanwhile, the consular officers look destroyed from their 4,000th visa interview, the cultural team absolutely wants to fill you in on the sublime Swedish death-reggae group they’re supporting, and the trade team looks smug because they absolutely just shaved three cents off Turkish pistachio tariffs.
INTRIGUE’S QUIZ
1) What was the most downloaded app of 2024?(worldwide)
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2) Which country's netizens spend the most time on social media?(average number of hours per person)
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3) Where did the first use of the abbreviated term 'app' first appear in the 1970s?According to the Oxford Dictionary
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